ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Readings from buoy in the area.

Station 41043
NDBC
Location: 21.026N 64.793W
11/06/2022 1520 UTC
Winds: SSE (150°) at 25.3 kts gusting to 33.0
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.76 in
Air Temperature: 81.5 °F
Dew Point: 78.3 °F
Water Temperature: 83.1 °F

[GCANE]

IR Sat analysis just came in.
http://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc ... 2211061500

Will be interesting to see how NHC deals with it.

Am I reading that correctly? 1006 mb and TD level winds??

I think I saw some 35 knt barbs in there

This is one of Wxman's favorites to debunk.
If this doesn't get a rise out of him, I give up.

[Coolcruiseman]

I see problems arising because this is a November event shaping up and local TV mets want to downplay the real possibilities at least here in the Tampa area. Because this has no public track as it is not designated by the NHC as a PTC it relies on communication by local weather experts who seem to dismiss the potential because it’s November.

This is not a normal setup and things are about a month behind in the tropics and it is real difficult to change the mindsets of TV mets.

Brian shields has a youtube channel mr weatherman he’s an orlando met my bad anyways he talks about a hurricane coming. he’s not downplaying it.

Agreed that CFL mets do not seem to be downplaying this.

[Michele B]

I see problems arising because this is a November event shaping up and local TV mets want to downplay the real possibilities at least here in the Tampa area. Because this has no public track as it is not designated by the NHC as a PTC it relies on communication by local weather experts who seem to dismiss the potential because it’s November.

This is not a normal setup and things are about a month behind in the tropics and it is real difficult to change the mindsets of TV mets.

Brian shields has a youtube channel mr weatherman he’s an orlando met my bad anyways he talks about a hurricane coming. he’s not downplaying it.

Agreed that CFL mets do not seem to be downplaying this.

I went to his YT page and his video was very very comprehensive and thorough.

[MetroMike]

Brian shields has a youtube channel mr weatherman he’s an orlando met my bad anyways he talks about a hurricane coming. he’s not downplaying it.

Agreed that CFL mets do not seem to be downplaying this.

I went to his YT page and his video was very very comprehensive and thorough.

Good to see some Florida mets taking this seriously in Orlando at least.

[Orlando]

Can you imagine the nightmare this could be for groceries and supply chains right before Thanksgiving? I'll be getting my dry goods now to prepare. Walmart still hasn't recovered from Ian, and their stock is low or non existent on many items.

[cane5]

Am I reading that correctly? 1006 mb and TD level winds??

I think I saw some 35 knt barbs in there

This is one of Wxman's favorites to debunk.
If this doesn't get a rise out of him, I give up.

So far 98l 1 waxman 0

[GCANE]

Getting a more classical warm-core TC development pattern now with cold-cloud top convection firing north of the swirl.
Along with a close-in feeder band to its east.

[GCANE]

AF303 on the runway.
Designated "unassigned"
Let's see where this heads.

[Michele B]

Agreed that CFL mets do not seem to be downplaying this.

I went to his YT page and his video was very very comprehensive and thorough.

Good to see some Florida mets taking this seriously in Orlando at least.

Yes,‘according to him, Orlando will have quite the impacts in form of much rain - at least.

[hipshot]

Brian shields has a youtube channel mr weatherman he’s an orlando met my bad anyways he talks about a hurricane coming. he’s not downplaying it.

Agreed that CFL mets do not seem to be downplaying this.

I went to his YT page and his video was very very comprehensive and thorough.

Can you supply a link to his channel, I went there but could find any data about this storm.

Thks

[GCANE]

That feeder band is slicing thru the dry air like a hot knife thru butter.

[kevin]

Visible loop of the last 30 minutes:

[galaxy401]

We always hear about an October surprise for hurricane season, but it turns out it's actually the November surprise instead.

[Michele B]

Agreed that CFL mets do not seem to be downplaying this.

I went to his YT page and his video was very very comprehensive and thorough.

Can you supply a link to his channel, I went there but could find any data about this storm.

Thks

Sorry, I’m on the road right now and on my phone. Can’t put a link.

I found him by going to YT and search by his name. It was down about 4 or 5 vids. About 7 mins long.

[GCANE]

Swirl will be moving in the direction of this buoy.
Already seeing a nose-dive in pressure.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EST

[GCANE]

Recon in the air

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1589288146206089217

[MetroMike]

Recon in the air

Good to see some pro-active movement albeit unplanned. Got to be on top of the rapidly evolving event.

[cycloneye]

One of the NHC forecasters.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1589297861526622209