ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

Swirl is kicking up some high-vorticity convection now.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/mDrwZCfZ/goes16-vis-98-L-202211061907.gif [/url]

Where would you put the COC?

Now, somewhere under the clouds.

[Coolcruiseman]

How far north this goes before diving south is going to be crucial as is how far it dives south. If it goes far enough north before diving south it may miss Florida completely. Further south than forecasted and Miami and even the Keys could get a direct hit. Right now of course the models have narrowed the most likely landfall between Palm Beach and Daytona.

Just shows the uncertainty of a system this late that when you are between PB and Daytona you don't want to see within 3-4 days.

[cycloneye]

The fuel is there.

 https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1589368661361692672

[LarryWx]

The fuel is there.

https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1589368661361692672

That's close to normal SSTs for mid October.

[Blown Away]

November you can throw most of the typical climatology tracks away, but direct hurricane landfall on FL E Coast from Vero to Jax is as rare as a November hurricane into FL.

I will follow climatology and say if FL E Coast landfall it will be from Vero to Keys or 98L will miss to the E.

[jlauderdal]

November you can throw most of the typical climatology tracks away, but direct hurricane landfall on FL E Coast from Vero to Jax is as rare as a November hurricane into FL.

I will follow climatology and say if FL E Coast landfall it will be from Vero to Keys or 98L will miss to the E.

Im going jupiter to daytona, minimal effects for monroe, dade, broward.

[Sciencerocks]

[GCANE]

Recon going all out Monday & Tuesday

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

[Sciencerocks]

If I had to guess
1. 65-70 knot hurricane
2. Just south of Palm beach landfall

[wxman57]

Finally got the first consensus track in (TVCN). It is pretty close to my track, but I think it is being skewed too far east by the GFS members, as it was skewed too far north/west by the GFS with Ian. I have a 50kt subtropical storm on the coast near Palm Beach early Thursday. Max winds may be 150 miles north and northeast of the center, though. I don't think it will have a tropical core at landfall. That means there may not be much wind associated with the center. Extremely large wind field by Wednesday, with TS winds extending over 300 miles NW-NE of the center. Classic wind field of a subtropical storm. Big question is whether the NHC will risk confusing the public by calling it a subtropical storm? They may just call it tropical to keep things simple, but it won't have the structure of a tropical storm.

As the center approaches Florida Wednesday night, the high pressure to its north that was responsible for the strong pressure gradient will be moving off to the east. As a result, the pressure gradient will relax. Assuming it has no tropical core, this should result in decreasing winds north of the center. I have an area of 50kt/60 mph winds north through east of the center at landfall with no tropical core. If it does develop a tropical core with strong winds near the center, then you cannot rule out hurricane force winds. This type of system will not carry its strong winds inland very far, so TS winds should be confined to eastern parts of coastal counties from Florida through Cape Cod. I have it fully ET and merged with a cold front as it passes the Outer Banks early Saturday then moving at 40-50 kts NE toward SW Newfoundland early Sunday.

Models don't indicate that it will be a big rain maker, maybe 3-5 inches in Florida and less farther north. Lots of dry air infiltrating it by Friday. Peak high tides may reach around 4 ft in Jacksonville Wed/Thu. Lots of coastal flooding with a large fetch of strong winds blowing into the coast from FL through NC. Waves 20+ ft moving into the coast will also add to the tidal surge.

There, I'm done after 10.5 hrs working on the initial advisory on my day off. Already have my Astros world series champs hat and tee-shirt ordered. Been a fan since we went to the newly built Astrodome in 1965 and watch them lose to the Dodgers. Don Dreysdale was pitching for the Dodgers. That's all I remember.

[crimi481]

if goes more south, close to or under Keys, then may go n/ne to SW Florida coast or Tampa region?
LOL - today I finished clean up from Ian - Englewood FL

[GCANE]

Looks like this will be stacked by 10AM EST tomorrow at 24.5N 70W

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1589381128330305537

[GCANE]

Looks like a major butt hurt for Grand Bahamas, Space Coast, Orlando, Tampa
Pretty decent tornado threat Orlando west to Tampa and along the whole FL west coast

[idaknowman]

Wherever it ends up, remember that Tuesday is voting day - how will the media & public handle this if preparations need to start?

[Nuno]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1589381128330305537

Hmm could be classifiable with a PTC product but no one really knows the criteria for this anymore? And we wonder why the public has a hard time with communication from the wx pros? Another moment where wanting to cross off too many t's and dotting too many i's for the sake of meteorological purity trumps public safety.

[GCANE]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1589381128330305537

Hmm could be classifiable with a PTC product but no one really knows the criteria for this anymore? And we wonder why the public has a hard time with communication from the wx pros? Another moment where wanting to cross off too many t's and dotting too many i's for the sake of meteorological purity trumps public safety.

‘It is critical:’ Floridians urged by state to review storm prep plans as Invest 98L threatens east coast
https://www.clickorlando.com/weather/20 ... ens-coast/

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1589385575991476226

[toad strangler]

Wherever it ends up, remember that Tuesday is voting day - how will the media & public handle this if preparations need to start?

I voted a week ago. Anyone could have voted since a week before Halloween lol.

I’m still going with a sub tropical gale.

[cane5]

AL, 98, 2022110612, , BEST, 0, 206N, 668W, 30, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 220, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 039, SPAWNINVEST, al732022 to al982022

I guess it will be a very long thread with around 300 pages.

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/?C=M;O=D

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal982022.dat

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was up for this area.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=123171

So I’m wondering what the ICON model is predicting now that there seems to be more hedging towards near Orlando
same way everything was about Tampa ICON called it right at upper Ft Myers. Sooo I’m thinking South Florida as ICON predicted earlier. If anyone has this model updated please inform……