ATL: NICOLE - Models

[gatorcane]

JMA recurves after swiping Florida’s east coast. Yesterday it was through Florida.

[Blown Away]

Based on the GFS, this does not become fully tropical until Wednesday morning, showing the 'core' separate from the rest of the system based on their simulated IR satellite. The CMC's simulated IR does not look tropical until Thursday. Both show an eye forming.

In my opinion, if this can become fully tropical, it will have a window to strengthen to a hurricane.

I do think the SW dive that all the modems are picking up on is a big factor, the further south it goes the stronger this can get.

Yes, seems all the models start wrapping around center after @48 hours. Also, 98L is intensifying as it approaches land, which has been the theme all season.

[gatorcane]

I suspect we will see models shift as we get closer to possible Florida landfall. Maybe those who are in the crosshairs now is a good thing. Could be more south or more, even missing Florida is on the table. We have seen countless times that even within sometimes 24 hours (day of) some shifts can happen and certainly within the timeframe we are in now.

[Blown Away]

I suspect we will see models shift as we get closer to possible Florida landfall. Could be more south or more, even missing Florida is on the table. We have seen countless times that even within sometimes 24 hours some shifts and certainly within the timeframe we are in now.

How long does 98L take to make that turn will decide it. Any slight delay at this point could allow a FL miss.
GFS takes 98L into the GOM and we are within 4 day window, that would be a big miss for GFS if 98L misses FL. JMHO

[Spacecoast]

Most 12z tracks show H1 @landfall....

[chaser1]

Couple thoughts thus far. I'm not sure if this has been discussed thus far. Depending on the latitude & orientation of 500mb ridge when 98L's northward motion becomes blocked, I'm beginning to consider the possibility of a southwesterly track potentially cutting through or even south of the Key's.

I too think that this "Gale" will fail to develop a classic eye wall structure therefore limiting intensity to a high-end T.S. or minimal hurricane. That's not suggesting a diminished threat, but perhaps an even larger displaced max wind field a good deal farther north of center then normal. Finally, I'm thinking there may be a very significant precipitation gradient with lower top training that could really dump along a long stretch of coastline, but maybe lacking the deeper convection that Ian carried well inland and across the state.

[chaser1]

I suspect we will see models shift as we get closer to possible Florida landfall. Maybe those who are in the crosshairs now is a good thing. Could be more south or more, even missing Florida is on the table. We have seen countless times that even within sometimes 24 hours (day of) some shifts can happen and certainly within the timeframe we are in now.

beat me to it lol

[LarryWx]

I suspect we will see models shift as we get closer to possible Florida landfall. Could be more south or more, even missing Florida is on the table. We have seen countless times that even within sometimes 24 hours some shifts and certainly within the timeframe we are in now.

How long does 98L take to make that turn will decide it. Any slight delay at this point could allow a FL miss.
GFS takes 98L into the GOM and we are within 4 day window, that would be a big miss for GFS if 98L misses FL. JMHO

It would be a huge miss by the GFS within 4 days if 98L were to miss FL. But we know the GFS has had huge misses before. Remember that for Ian, it had it hit Destin within 4 days and Apalachee Bay within just 3 days. Although it is an awful model, I'll mention mainly for the record that the last 2 NAVGEM runs never quite make landfall anywhere in the US!

[SFLcane]

[LarryWx]

The 18Z ICON is east of the prior two runs and just west of the 0Z with only a skim of the central FL east coast and then only a little inland to just west of Jacksonville.

[SFLcane]

Andy’s model.

[LarryWx]

18Z GFS: Stuart cat 2 7AM Thu

Landfall time and location very similar to 12Z Euro, UKMET, JMA

[cycloneye]

12z new experimental model HAFS v0.3S.

[SFLcane]

18Z GFS: Stuart cat 2 7AM Thu

Landfall time and location very similar to 12Z Euro, UKMET

Na more like west Palm. Right over my house

[AutoPenalti]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see this OTS in consecutive runs.

[LarryWx]

18Z GFS: Stuart cat 2 7AM Thu

Landfall time and location very similar to 12Z Euro, UKMET

Na more like west Palm. Right over my house

To get technical, I'll go with in between as Tidbits has it at 27.0N vs WPB's 26.7 and Stuart's 27.2.

[Blown Away]

18Z GFS: Stuart cat 2 7AM Thu

Landfall time and location very similar to 12Z Euro, UKMET

Na more like west Palm. Right over my house

To get technical, I'll go with in between as Tidbits has it at 27.0N vs WPB's 26.7 and Stuart's 27.2.

Jupiter to Hobe Sound, @15 miles S of Stuart.

[jlauderdal]

18Z GFS: Stuart cat 2 7AM Thu

Landfall time and location very similar to 12Z Euro, UKMET

Na more like west Palm. Right over my house

To get technical, I'll go with in between as Tidbits has it at 27.0N vs WPB's 26.7 and Stuart's 27.2.

There is text output for the coordinates if you want to get get in the weeds

[fci]

18Z GFS: Stuart cat 2 7AM Thu

Landfall time and location very similar to 12Z Euro, UKMET

Na more like west Palm. Right over my house

https://i.postimg.cc/zfngn1y4/AC336-BA3-64-DF-4-D01-A1-E4-5794-BC2-DEB2-E.gif

We live in the same basic area, I'm at 26.6N
If we are near the center, we will probably escape the worst of it.
Being North and Northeast of this one is where it appears the worst will occur.
Wxman57 continues to be bearish about this system.
Local Met this morning was pointing out that the way it looks to be shaped, just west of the center might be sunny.
We'll see, climatology gets thrown out here and it is usually my default (and I'm usually right because of that, lol)

[Teban54]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see this OTS in consecutive runs.

Technically I'm not surprised, but at a similar time frame Ian's forecast track kept moving west into the GOM, and we all know how that turned out.