ATL: NICOLE - Models

[Tailgater33]

Could someone post the 00z Gfs and Euro tonight in the Wednesday 12z and Thursday 00z time frame, we are returning from a cruise Thursday( New Orleans) and my wife does not do waves well very spotty internet’s service on board. Thanks in advance

[LarryWx]

Na more like west Palm. Right over my house

To get technical, I'll go with in between as Tidbits has it at 27.0N vs WPB's 26.7 and Stuart's 27.2.

There is text output for the coordinates if you want to get get in the weeds

Thanks. Do you have a link? But I really don't need to look further as Blown Away gave the exact location.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z HWRF into Martin County as a cane once again. Really gets act together late near the Bahamas.

[Blown Away]

18z HWRF into Martin County as a cane once again. Really gets act together late near the Bahamas.

18z HWRF… Cat 1 into @Jupiter to Hobe Sound… Slight SW shift from 12z… Key is 98L continues WNW into FL Peninsula, so we are getting in close range to miss FL to the E, still possible… Still a 983 mb storm into Tampa Bay!

[Blown Away]

18z HMON… 974 mb Hurricane into @Stuart… Crosses Peninsula holding together and out near Tampa Bay then in near Panama City as a hurricane. Wow!

[Blown Away]

18z Euro… Slight SW shift, slightly stronger, and appears to have a defined LLC at this point.

[ThunderForce]

How accurate is the HMON model usually track-wise? It seems to be the only operational model showcasing a landfall in south FL on the 9th, rather than the 10th or 11th like other models.

[blp]

Further SW than 12z

[chaser1]

How accurate is the HMON model usually track-wise? It seems to be the only operational model showcasing a landfall in south FL on the 9th (rather than the 10th or 11th like other models) and the only one showcasing the second landfall being close to Panama City.

I'm pretty leery of using the model for track purposes, however HMON showing a Wed.(11/9) 1800Z landfall is only about 8-16 hr.'s earlier then most other models showing a Thursday (11/10) 0Z-12Z landfall. There are no other reliable models (such as NAVGEM) that project a landfall as late as 11/11

[Blown Away]

Further SW than 12z

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5eac99f2fef217729a0a511a9821464c28442a18c0a668bb94e40864dce09283.gif

Notice how it’s getting stronger over the FL Peninsula!! Wow

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Some sort of blend of intensity between the GFS and Euro seems right. I'd go with 65 knots at peak.

[ronjon]

Further SW than 12z

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5eac99f2fef217729a0a511a9821464c28442a18c0a668bb94e40864dce09283.gif

Notice how it’s getting stronger over the FL Peninsula!! Wow

Not sure it's purely tropical on the Euro. Strongest winds to the northwest of the center. Sorta like Ian after landfall when heavy rainfall and strong winds were northwest of the center as it trekked inland up the peninsula.

[cycloneye]

00z model suite.

[NDG]

A closer look at the latest 0z TVCN consensus model.

[jlauderdal]

A closer look at the latest 0z TVCN consensus model.

https://i.imgur.com/ed8zZG0.gif

There is your current hurricane center track, they stick to that track as close as they possibly can without going against common sense

[eastcoastFL]

Further SW than 12z

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5eac99f2fef217729a0a511a9821464c28442a18c0a668bb94e40864dce09283.gif

How much SW is it? Kinda looks the same to me. But it is a different angle than I’m used to seeing,

[eastcoastFL]

A closer look at the latest 0z TVCN consensus model.

https://i.imgur.com/ed8zZG0.gif

There is your current hurricane center track, they stick to that track as close as they possibly can without going against common sense

Yup. Being 3 days out I’d usually say it’s probably going to be 50 miles north or south of that line. But we are 3 days out with no defined center so it’s still a coin flip. For me personally this track would be ideal. It would put me on the southern edge of the storm which I don’t expect to be very active. A palm beach landfall would probably worst case for me in southern Martin county.

[Blown Away]

A closer look at the latest 0z TVCN consensus model.

https://i.imgur.com/ed8zZG0.gif

18z GFS & EURO are at least 50 miles S at the FL landfall point and they both bury into FL Peninsula compared to the TVCN’s skimming E coast. Unusual to see that big of a spread

[eastcoastFL]

A closer look at the latest 0z TVCN consensus model.

https://i.imgur.com/ed8zZG0.gif

18z GFS & EURO are at least 50 miles S at the FL landfall point and they both bury into FL Peninsula compared to the TVCN’s skimming E coast. Unusual to see that big of a spread

Euro is a bit closer to the TVCN - it’s hard for me to tell on the low res but it kinda looks like Ft. pierce and GFS looks like Stuart. The Canadian skews the average making landfall around the space coast

[NDG]

Even if we were to go with the weaker broader Euro forecast, that models shows TS force wind gusts affecting the whole east coast of FL as early as Tuesday afternoon because of the pressure gradient between the storm and an Arctic High over southern Canada/NE US.