ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronjon]

What’s the hold up for PTC advisory? Nobody is preparing here in Palm Beach.

Yeah kinda puzzled. Maybe 11 pm? Or probably 5 am tomorrow.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Thanks Kyle on the names. Haven't kept track

[jlauderdal]

This really should be classified tonight. I dont get what the hold up is.

Where is the LLC?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Beginning the change to the left.

AL, 98, 2022110700, , BEST, 0, 240N, 670W, 35, 1005, DB

[Hammy]

This really should be classified tonight. I dont get what the hold up is.

Where is the LLC?

Formative and broad, but it's there. But whether it's closed or not isn't clear

[GCANE]

Looks like a tower maybe going up close to where the swirl may be

Can you give lat/longs?

25.2N 66.0W

[eastcoastFL]

What’s the hold up for PTC advisory? Nobody is preparing here in Palm Beach.

Probably not a ton of preps to be done for this one. I got water and gas today just incase. I have everything else still from Ian. Now it’s just wait and see if it might be strong enough to put up shutter. I sure hope it’s not.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like a tower maybe going up close to where the swirl may be

Can you give lat/longs?

25.2N 66.0W

GCANE - Will we be looking at much of a tornado threat as the storm comes through? That’s my main concern.

[GCANE]

Looks like a tower maybe going up close to where the swirl may be

Can you give lat/longs?

25.2N 66.0W

Heavy Lightning

[jlauderdal]

What’s the hold up for PTC advisory? Nobody is preparing here in Palm Beach.

Probably not a ton of preps to be done for this one. I got water and gas today just incase. I have everything else still from Ian. Now it’s just wait and see if it might be strong enough to put up shutter. I sure hope it’s not.

Good summary of the current prep situation...I already had water and gas from Ian preps but nothing more to be done, genny was started today but it was started a few weeks ago for ian. Dont take your eye off fantasyland gfs, there is eye candy in the sw carib, incoming energy from the Atlantic so this isn't unreasonable to think we could get another system.

[GCANE]

Can you give lat/longs?

25.2N 66.0W

GCANE - Will we be looking at much of a tornado threat as the storm comes through? That’s my main concern.

I have been looking at that closely.
Today's GFS run shows Orlando to Tampa could be under the gun. Pretty strong helicity.
However, could change on later model runs.

[eastcoastFL]

25.2N 66.0W

GCANE - Will we be looking at much of a tornado threat as the storm comes through? That’s my main concern.

I have been looking at that closely.
Today's GFS run shows Orlando to Tampa could be under the gun. Pretty strong helicity.
However, could change on later model runs.

How about southern Martin county? Thanks man, I will be watching for your analysis.

[GCANE]

UL trough is breaking apart

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

[eastcoastFL]

What’s the hold up for PTC advisory? Nobody is preparing here in Palm Beach.

Probably not a ton of preps to be done for this one. I got water and gas today just incase. I have everything else still from Ian. Now it’s just wait and see if it might be strong enough to put up shutter. I sure hope it’s not.

Good summary of the current prep situation...I already had water and gas from Ian preps but nothing more to be done, genny was started today but it was started a few weeks ago for ian. Dont take your eye off fantasyland gfs, there is eye candy in the sw carib, incoming energy from the Atlantic so this isn't unreasonable to think we could get another system.

I’m very ready for the season to be over. I thought we had dodged it all by now. Guess we have to see this season through to the end. I should probably fire up the generator before I go to work tomorrow. Thanks for the reminder.

[GCANE]

GCANE - Will we be looking at much of a tornado threat as the storm comes through? That’s my main concern.

I have been looking at that closely.
Today's GFS run shows Orlando to Tampa could be under the gun. Pretty strong helicity.
However, could change on later model runs.

How about southern Martin county? Thanks man, I will be watching for your analysis.

The latest GFS showed a big infeed of high CAPE air as the eyewall makes landfall but not much helicity.
It's still too far out to make a pin-point forecast.
I'll post updates.

[Michele B]

One thing for sure is that after late season storms like this there is almost always going to be a real cold shot of air behind it.

Strange year for sure.

There was cold front with Ian, too. That was nice, as after the storm and NO electricity, we were able to sleep with the windows open and nice, cool air rather than the normal August hot, humid torture chamber FL becomes in late summer.

[jlauderdal]

Probably not a ton of preps to be done for this one. I got water and gas today just incase. I have everything else still from Ian. Now it’s just wait and see if it might be strong enough to put up shutter. I sure hope it’s not.

Good summary of the current prep situation...I already had water and gas from Ian preps but nothing more to be done, genny was started today but it was started a few weeks ago for ian. Dont take your eye off fantasyland gfs, there is eye candy in the sw carib, incoming energy from the Atlantic so this isn't unreasonable to think we could get another system.

I’m very ready for the season to be over. I thought we had dodged it all by now. Guess we have to see this season through to the end. I should probably fire up the generator before I go to work tomorrow. Thanks for the reminder.

you are in far more danger than me at this point, good luck

[GCANE]

Looks like a second tower developing 25.2N 67.5W
Maybe a third 24.1N 67.9W
Slow risers due to subsidence effect of the UL trough.
However, seems they are trying to punch thru.

[CrazyC83]

In my personal opinion, the G-IV mission should be moved up to tomorrow. While the track forecast has fairly decent confidence, we need to know how conducive the environment is for strengthening and if the front is playing any role.

[cycloneye]

In my personal opinion, the G-IV mission should be moved up to tomorrow. While the track forecast has fairly decent confidence, we need to know how conducive the environment is for strengthening and if the front is playing any role.

Hi.The TCPOD has four G-IV missions between Tuesday and Wednesday. You have a good case for one on Monday. 98L Recon Thread