ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LarryWx]

Looks like that strong convection is driving the swirl almost directly south.

Is moving at 310 degrees NW per recon.

https://i.imgur.com/FV3q3VI.png

So, the recon had it at 26.5N, 70.5W a little before 2 PM EST. The 10AM NHC forecast for 7 PM is for 27.0N, 70.5W. So, Nicole is already as far west as and 35 miles south of the NHC position for 5 hours later! Does anyone feel confident about the implications on future track adjustments? Further south? Or something different?

[Blown Away]

https://twitter.com/watkinstrack/status/1589671522469572609?s=20&t=hpspEDthqW0NE2z67_xXTw

NHC 2pm Update, they only update the position (X) at 2:00 and 8:00 and not the track. You can see the tail (X) at 2pm hanging down likely due to recon's position update S, which should impact the track at 5pm?

[Stormlover1970]

Looks like that strong convection is driving the swirl almost directly south.

Is moving at 310 degrees NW per recon.

https://i.imgur.com/FV3q3VI.png

So, the recon had it at 26.5N, 70.5W a little after 2 PM EST. The 10AM NHC forecast for 7 PM is for 27.0N, 70.5W. So, Nicole is already as far west as and 35 miles south of the NHC had for nearly 5 hours later! Does anyone feel confident about the implications on future track adjustments? Further south? Or something different?

I would think it would mean further north in the long term

[skillz305]

I’m usually the one to tell my friends about a storm possibly coming over a week out. Didn’t even know this storm existed til yesterday. This means everyone in Florida is finding out about this today.

[LarryWx]

Is moving at 310 degrees NW per recon.

https://i.imgur.com/FV3q3VI.png

So, the recon had it at 26.5N, 70.5W a little after 2 PM EST. The 10AM NHC forecast for 7 PM is for 27.0N, 70.5W. So, Nicole is already as far west as and 35 miles south of the NHC had for nearly 5 hours later! Does anyone feel confident about the implications on future track adjustments? Further south? Or something different?

I would think it would mean further north in the long term

Thanks for the reply. Why further north if it is further south now?

[AutoPenalti]

So, the recon had it at 26.5N, 70.5W a little after 2 PM EST. The 10AM NHC forecast for 7 PM is for 27.0N, 70.5W. So, Nicole is already as far west as and 35 miles south of the NHC had for nearly 5 hours later! Does anyone feel confident about the implications on future track adjustments? Further south? Or something different?

I would think it would mean further north in the long term

Thanks for the reply. Why further north if it is further south now?

Based on recent trends, it seems likely there's less influence on the ridge to the north pushing this south.

[Blown Away]

Nicole having a baby?

[Emmett_Brown]

Looks like that strong convection is driving the swirl almost directly south.

Is moving at 310 degrees NW per recon.

https://i.imgur.com/FV3q3VI.png

So, the recon had it at 26.5N, 70.5W a little before 2 PM EST. The 10AM NHC forecast for 7 PM is for 27.0N, 70.5W. So, Nicole is already as far west as and 35 miles south of the NHC position for 5 hours later! Does anyone feel confident about the implications on future track adjustments? Further south? Or something different?

Just speculating, but the fact that Nicole is further W currently seems more significant than the N/S debate. To me, further W implies that she will gain more longitude before recurving, increasing the chances of reaching the GOM

[GCANE]

I don't think I have ever seen a swirl make such a pronounced loop before.
Very cool.

[LarryWx]

I would think it would mean further north in the long term

Thanks for the reply. Why further north if it is further south now?

Based on recent trends, it seems likely there's less influence on the ridge to the north pushing this south.

I'm not following you. Would you mind expanding on this some so I can understand? Thank you.

[jlauderdal]

I talked to people in Florida unaware a hurricane was possibly coming as well.

It's Floriduh and its not surprising, they will be aware soon enough. I can tell you there are no preps happening in my area, maybe tomorrow.

[Gums]

Salute!

I share your concern, Emmet. I do not want a repeat of Erin.

Gums sends....

[AutoPenalti]

Thanks for the reply. Why further north if it is further south now?

Based on recent trends, it seems likely there's less influence on the ridge to the north pushing this south.

I'm not following you. Would you mind expanding on this some so I can understand? Thank you.

This is based off the past 5 runs of the GFS with the lighter being the oldest and darkest being the most recent. The most recent with Nicole being further SW with the longer term track further North. (Darker Blue line)

[sponger]

Going to be quite the mess! Most will be unprepared for the massive wind field of a sub tropical storm and the tight pressure gradient to the North of Center. Models seem to be indicating a transition to tropical which is better for the state but worse for the landfall location. Forecasters have their hands full!!!

[toad strangler]

I talked to people in Florida unaware a hurricane was possibly coming as well.

It's Floriduh and its not surprising, they will be aware soon enough. I can tell you there are no preps happening in my area, maybe tomorrow.

Nobody is shuttering by me on the Treasure Coast. OR, they all have impact resistant windows and doors. I do not, and will not be shuttering.

[Sciencerocks]

[Poonwalker]

Serious question, since I live in Vero Beach. What are the odds this storm rapidly intensifies in a stronger than cat 1 hurricane? I know it’s only 2-3 days out and might not have the time to. But as of how much it’s developed today in regards to what it’s estimated to be by this time. Is there any margin of error that we could be blindsided by a cat 2/3? Or is that scenario simply not possible and out the window?

I would be VERY surprised by that, and as someone who lives in Jupiter, I clearly have an interest in monitoring Nicole closely. I will say that her circulation appears to be tightening up today on satellite. But convection still not that impressive … and until we see that happen around the LLC, significant intensification is unlikely IMO

The way these things are becoming every year it's getting hard to say. From the GFS model it would have to organize quicker than forecast in my mind to insulate itself and the best chance at any RI development would be prior to landfall while traversing the stream. I would still think cat 2 tops but wide reaching impacts to the NW (ie Florida).

[jlauderdal]

I talked to people in Florida unaware a hurricane was possibly coming as well.

It's Floriduh and its not surprising, they will be aware soon enough. I can tell you there are no preps happening in my area, maybe tomorrow.

Nobody is shuttering by me on the Treasure Coast. OR, they all have impact resistant windows and doors. I do not, and will not be shuttering.

I think tomorrow there will be shutters, you are closer to anticipated landfall than me, I expect shutters to appear here tomorrow.

[LandoWill]

I really don't want to take down my 12ft skeletons this week. blah

I have a 12ft witch and 2 skeletons and a werewolf to take down. north of tampa here. blah when do we expect west coast ?

[typhoonty]

Thanks for the reply. Why further north if it is further south now?

Based on recent trends, it seems likely there's less influence on the ridge to the north pushing this south.

I'm not following you. Would you mind expanding on this some so I can understand? Thank you.

I think Nicole's track may be like a wave, the higher the amplitude on the northward extent the further south the base of the trough will be. However, looking at guidance myself I don't see that strong of a correlation yet. Stronger correlation to me right now seems to be faster goes further south, and to a lesser extent, weaker goes further south. I'd need another model cycle or two to see if the latitude loss of a further south position is worth less than the steering influence exerted by the ridge further south.