ATL: NICOLE - Models

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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#201 Postby gatorcane » Mon Nov 07, 2022 3:55 pm

18Z ICON slight south shift and 1MB stronger out through 18 hours so far

39 hours:

Image
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#202 Postby Stormlover1970 » Mon Nov 07, 2022 4:02 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z NAM shifts south a bit, landfall WPB:

https://i.postimg.cc/CMCsFPQ9/nam-mslp-pcpn-watl-19.png
the nam is spam :spam:
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#203 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Nov 07, 2022 4:07 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z NAM shifts south a bit, landfall WPB:

https://i.postimg.cc/CMCsFPQ9/nam-mslp-pcpn-watl-19.png

That is concerning for the residents of Boca.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#204 Postby cane5 » Mon Nov 07, 2022 4:07 pm

I wonder how models take into account gradient features both in wind strength and direction. Must add something different into the mix not always dealt ?
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#205 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Nov 07, 2022 4:16 pm

18z Icon, stronger with landfall in Palm Bay.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#206 Postby cane5 » Mon Nov 07, 2022 4:37 pm

BobHarlem wrote:18z Icon, stronger with landfall in Palm Bay.
https://i.imgur.com/kblJxmW.png


Well see if ICON can pull off two in a row it definitely is predicting a more northern landfall than the Euro or Gfs.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#207 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Nov 07, 2022 4:41 pm

cane5 wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:18z Icon, stronger with landfall in Palm Bay.
https://i.imgur.com/kblJxmW.png


Well see if ICON can pull off two in a row it definitely is predicting a more northern landfall than the Euro or Gfs.

It actually shifted South.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#208 Postby cane5 » Mon Nov 07, 2022 4:45 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
cane5 wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:18z Icon, stronger with landfall in Palm Bay.
https://i.imgur.com/kblJxmW.png


Well see if ICON can pull off two in a row it definitely is predicting a more northern landfall than the Euro or Gfs.

It actually shifted South.


Not by too much interesting to see the next run…
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#209 Postby gatorcane » Mon Nov 07, 2022 4:55 pm

The GFS shifted south by a little now just south of WPB at landfall in Palm Beach County. Maybe over SFLcane’s house. Looks like Lake Worth or Boynton Beach.

Image
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#210 Postby Blown Away » Mon Nov 07, 2022 5:01 pm

gatorcane wrote:The GFS shifted south by a little now just south of WPB at landfall in Palm Beach County. Maybe over SFLcane’s house. Looks like Lake Worth or Boynton Beach.

https://i.postimg.cc/0NLvkdNH/gfs-mslp-wind-seus-fh0-60.gif


That's a big shift in close range and stronger!
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#211 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Nov 07, 2022 5:06 pm

Blown Away wrote:
gatorcane wrote:The GFS shifted south by a little now just south of WPB at landfall in Palm Beach County. Maybe over SFLcane’s house. Looks like Lake Worth or Boynton Beach.

https://i.postimg.cc/0NLvkdNH/gfs-mslp-wind-seus-fh0-60.gif


That's a big shift in close range and stronger!
You getting ready for an eyewall?
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#212 Postby N2FSU » Mon Nov 07, 2022 5:06 pm

18z GFS with a shift west on landfall in the GulfImage
Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#213 Postby SFLcane » Mon Nov 07, 2022 5:08 pm

gatorcane wrote:The GFS shifted south by a little now just south of WPB at landfall in Palm Beach County. Maybe over SFLcane’s house. Looks like Lake Worth or Boynton Beach.

https://i.postimg.cc/0NLvkdNH/gfs-mslp-wind-seus-fh0-60.gif

:eek:
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#214 Postby sponger » Mon Nov 07, 2022 5:09 pm

Well at least Navgem still shows a recurve. Something to build on while the rest of the models want to pummel Florida!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0706&fh=63
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#215 Postby Blown Away » Mon Nov 07, 2022 5:09 pm



Hurricanes are mad at FSU and coming your way! :D
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#216 Postby Gums » Mon Nov 07, 2022 5:15 pm

Salute!

I feel SFL will do just fine....an accomplished storm vet and more prepared than 99% of the U.S. population for a storm.

Biggie where SFL lives is height above sea level and prep fpr power loss. Looks like most of that neighborhood is over 20 feet above sea level, and no big waves crashing on the house that is 100 feet from the beach!

One more time... get those poptarts and beer early!

Gums sends...
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#217 Postby Blown Away » Mon Nov 07, 2022 5:16 pm

Image
18z NAM... Just because...
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#218 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Nov 07, 2022 5:18 pm

sponger wrote:Well at least Navgem still shows a recurve. Something to build on while the rest of the models want to pummel Florida!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0706&fh=63

Thats the 6z , the 12z joins other models with Florida landfall
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#219 Postby sponger » Mon Nov 07, 2022 5:22 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:
sponger wrote:Well at least Navgem still shows a recurve. Something to build on while the rest of the models want to pummel Florida!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0706&fh=63

Thats the 6z , the 12z joins other models with Florida landfall


Well so much for that! I think the risks for a Cat 2 landfall are going up. I would be preparing as such from North Dade to the Cape.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Models

#220 Postby sponger » Mon Nov 07, 2022 5:26 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/0tYc6Lo.gif
18z NAM... Just because...


That is insane! Imagine if that verified! One thing is for sure, that is one seriously strong high for November! Truly a crazy year or two for weather!
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