ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

One thing I’ve noticed this evening in Port St. Lucie is that the atmosphere is starting to moisten up. Earlier today it was more like a mid humidity fall day. Tonight the air is heavier and thicker. RH is definitely on the rise.


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[tiger_deF]

Are the posted satellite images of Nicole recent? I can't find any GOES data of Nicole since a couple hours ago.

[cycloneye]

Good news about the GOES-16 images as they are updating again after a few hours that stopped.

[tropicwatch]

AF was scheduled to take off about 30 minutes ago but have not seen any indication that they have taken off. Maybe they forgot to set their watches back an hour

[tropicwatch]

Good news about the GOES-16 images as they are updating again after a few hours that stopped.

https://i.imgur.com/xdDtqzJ.jpg


https://i.imgur.com/1t2yokU.gif

Moistening up around the center. Maybe the transition is taking place.

[cycloneye]

AF was scheduled to take off about 30 minutes ago but have not seen any indication that they have taken off. Maybe they forgot to set their watches back an hour

Plane is flying now. Nicole Recon Thread

[tropicwatch]

AF was scheduled to take off about 30 minutes ago but have not seen any indication that they have taken off. Maybe they forgot to set their watches back an hour

Plane is flying now. Nicole Recon Thread

For some reason GE is not picking it up.

[Hurricaneman]

Seems to be getting it act together, cyclonic loop earlier now moving under the convection at 27.5n

[eastcoastFL]

[Category5Kaiju]

It's very interesting to see how Nicole's future track kind of resembles a cross between Dorian's and Andrew's tracks.

[eastcoastFL]

For weather nerds like myself this is pretty cool. You can see in my local forecast the wind gradually goes up Wednesday. Then overnight it spikes as the eye wall passes and then flattens as the eye passes over. Pretty neat stuff.

[Nuno]

It's very interesting to see how Nicole's future track kind of resembles a cross between Dorian's and Andrew's tracks.

Jeanne as well.

[eastcoastFL]

The track nudged a little north now to port at lucie.

[AutoPenalti]

Did Hurricane Watches switch to TS Warning for Broward?

[Blown Away]

The track nudged a little north now to port at lucie.

Sure did, this storm is making me rethink the the importance of the GFS/Euro compared to TVCN. I know TVCN is a consensus, but GFS/Euro/HWRF are all landfalling in northern PBC which is 32+ miles south. If TVCN is averages, the Ukmet & Icon must have more weight??

[eastcoastFL]

Did Hurricane Watches switch to TS Warning for Broward?

No, they’re in addition to the cane watches


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Hallandale Beach
Florida northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Lake Okeechobee.

The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning
from North Palm Beach northward to Altamaha Sound, including the
Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwest Bahamas, including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Bimini,
and Grand Bahama Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera
* Hallandale Beach to Altamaha Sound
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East Coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Hallandale Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North Palm Beach to Hallandale Beach

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef

[cycloneye]

A little more north into Port St Lucie.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The track nudged a little north now to port at lucie.

Sure did, this storm is making me rethink the the importance of the GFS/Euro compared to TVCN. I know TVCN is a consensus, but GFS/Euro/HWRF are all landfalling in northern PBC which is 32+ miles south. If TVCN is averages, the Ukmet & Icon must have more weight??

I dont think it changed at all not that the exact line matters a bit. Looks like entering Martin with next forecast point just north of the lake.

[Coolcruiseman]

The track nudged a little north now to port at lucie.

That might change the impacts just a little for us to the north.

Also of note is that the NE turn occurs before Nicole has a chance to get in the GOM.

[eastcoastFL]

The track nudged a little north now to port at lucie.

Sure did, this storm is making me rethink the the importance of the GFS/Euro compared to TVCN. I know TVCN is a consensus, but GFS/Euro/HWRF are all landfalling in northern PBC which is 32+ miles south. If TVCN is averages, the Ukmet & Icon must have more weight??

If you look at the 00Z model consensus they’re all a tad north so that must be pushing the TVCN that way. But I imagine things will still shift a little each way as it makes it’s SW turn and transitions to a tropical storm. Lots more ahead for Nicole. She’s starting to fire off some more convection around the center now. Might be starting to feel the warmer waters.