ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

Did Hurricane Watches switch to TS Warning for Broward?

Hurricane watches are up still, hurricane warnings will come later. The wind field ahead of it will get TS winds well ahead of the hurricane force winds. 4AM or more likely 10AM is when the Hurricane Warning area will likely get put up in some section of the tropical storm warning area. This all has to do with 36 vs 48 hour difference between watches/warnings. Wouldn't be surprised to see some Watches on the Florida west coast tomorrow too.

[eastcoastFL]

The track nudged a little north now to port at lucie.

Sure did, this storm is making me rethink the the importance of the GFS/Euro compared to TVCN. I know TVCN is a consensus, but GFS/Euro/HWRF are all landfalling in northern PBC which is 32+ miles south. If TVCN is averages, the Ukmet & Icon must have more weight??

I dont think it changed at all not that the exact line matters a bit. Looks like entering Martin with next forecast point just north of the lake.

It was entering at hobe sound last update. Now it comes right up Jensen beach blvd and then into PSL. So maybe 15-20 miles north.

[eastcoastFL]

Buoy right near Nicole’s current location showing a rapid drop in pressure

[Blown Away]

The track nudged a little north now to port at lucie.

Sure did, this storm is making me rethink the the importance of the GFS/Euro compared to TVCN. I know TVCN is a consensus, but GFS/Euro/HWRF are all landfalling in northern PBC which is 32+ miles south. If TVCN is averages, the Ukmet & Icon must have more weight??

I dont think it changed at all not that the exact line matters a bit. Looks like entering Martin with next forecast point just north of the lake.

4pm was through Hobe Sound and 10pm is through Jensen Beach, @15 mile N shift.

[Coolcruiseman]

Coming in further north also brings the potential of less time to strengthen.

[Sanibel]

A cruel "wrong-way" hurricane going out of its way to kick us when we are down...

Wonder if November climatology can support it?...

[AutoPenalti]

I only ask because Hurricane winds may likely not be felt across Broward County if that track verified… considering it’s lopsidedness…

[Poonwalker]

Still has a lot of dry air to work out but overall it is moistening the surroundings some.

[eastcoastFL]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/08/GOES16-CAR-08-1000x1000.gif

Still has a lot of dry air to work out but overall it is moistening the surroundings some.

It’s crazy how some of the models just show the moisture expanding and the dry air is just gone as it approaches and crosses the peninsula.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/08/GOES16-CAR-08-1000x1000.gif

Still has a lot of dry air to work out but overall it is moistening the surroundings some.

It’s crazy how some of the models just show the moisture expanding and the dry air is just gone as it approaches and crosses the peninsula.

That could very well be the result of Nicole's projected path into a zone of decreased shear. We know how increased shear can easily cause dry air intrusions.

[eastcoastFL]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/08/GOES16-CAR-08-1000x1000.gif

Still has a lot of dry air to work out but overall it is moistening the surroundings some.

It’s crazy how some of the models just show the moisture expanding and the dry air is just gone as it approaches and crosses the peninsula.

That could very well be the result of Nicole's projected path into a zone of decreased shear. We know how increased shear can easily cause dry air intrusions.

Currently there’s about 40kts of shear ahead of her path. I guess that’s supposed to move as she approaches.

[fci]

I only ask because Hurricane winds may likely not be felt across Broward County if that track verified… considering it’s lopsidedness…

Based on the lopsidedness of the storm; it seems to me that being South of the landfall will mitigate much of the winds and rain and even being at the landfall point might not be very bad. North of the system will take the brunt.
That is unless it becomes truly Tropical and convection fills in around the center which doesn't seem that likely.
For those of us in Palm Beach County and south, the turn back away from the WSW or SW movement to the WNW is the key.
Side note, that Jeanne was progged to come in right where we live but it took about a 1/2 jog to north while crossing The Northern Bahamas and we were spared a lot of the worst effects.

[AdamFirst]

Shutters going up tomorrow at my house here. We are prepping for a hurricane. Feeling like we will get the brunt of something either way.

[storminabox]

As per usual, not looking like much of anything for Miami. Or is it too early to say that? Not sure. Just not seeing much in the way of rain/wind on the south side as many others have mentioned

[AdamFirst]

As per usual, not looking like much of anything for Miami. Or is it too early to say that? Not sure. Just not seeing much in the way of rain/wind on the south side as many others have mentioned

Wednesday will be a messy day for all of southeast FL with the constant bands rotating in off the ocean. Don't let your guard down.

[storminabox]

As per usual, not looking like much of anything for Miami. Or is it too early to say that? Not sure. Just not seeing much in the way of rain/wind on the south side as many others have mentioned

Wednesday will be a messy day for all of southeast FL with the constant bands rotating in off the ocean. Don't let your guard down.

Been tracking these things long enough to know not to ever do that. Good luck up there in Port St. Lucie!

[eastcoastFL]

Shutters going up tomorrow at my house here. We are prepping for a hurricane. Feeling like we will get the brunt of something either way.

Only upside for us is conditions might be worse north of the center on this one.

[tropicwatch]

Starting to build higher clouds tops near the center.

[Poonwalker]

Starting to build higher clouds tops near the center.

https://tropicwatch.info/nicole110720222200.jpg

Yeah. That’s it’s only chance to transition l it has to insulate a core against the dry air. Some models show it as a half storm devoid on the southern end.

[Jr0d]

My take is this will start going south AND become more tropical on Wednesday... not expecting much in the way of strengthening tomorrow.

Obviously a very complicated setup. Where and how strong the ridge of high pressure will be crucial.

Unfortunately it is looking less likely that Nichole will miss Florida and also less likely this will "only" be a subtropical storm.

The only possible benefit of this becoming a fully tropical hurricane is the wind field may not be as large as it will have stronger winds in a more concentrated area...however that is no guarantee.

Wednesday morning will be telling, at least then we will have a good idea where the high pressure is and how much it will steer Nichole SW...

Thay said we have seen significant strengthening from countless storms when the ridge fills in forcing a storm SW.