ATL: NICOLE - Models

[NDG]

A closer look at the 06z tropical models, TVCN is over Cocoa Beach, I think the UKMET is making it be so far north.

[chris_fit]

06Z GFS

[NDG]

06z HWRF and HMON are coming in further north than previous run(s).

[NDG]

[DESTRUCTION5]

NHC not putting much stock in the GFS and Euro a mere 48 hrs out is very interesting with them bringing her in from Jupiter to PSL . 48 hrs out they used to be considered locks in regards to track.

[fsucory08]

NHC not putting much stock in the GFS and Euro a mere 48 hrs out is very interesting with them bringing her in from Jupiter to PSL . 48 hrs out they used to be considered locks in regards to track.

It's possible models zero in on Martin Co/St Lucie at 12z still. IDK why but the setup here reminds me of Jeanne. Curious to see how the 12z shakes out

[jlauderdal]

NHC not putting much stock in the GFS and Euro a mere 48 hrs out is very interesting with them bringing her in from Jupiter to PSL . 48 hrs out they used to be considered locks in regards to track.

They hug the tvcn mightly for a good reason, that said look no further than IAN to see how complicated these forecasts are primarily with the angles and a few miles difference on approach makes such a big difference on a landfall point, its simple geometry. Looks like Boca on the south end all the way up to Daytona is in play for landfall. The intensity this morning is the issue..big difference in storm power between a strong TS and a cat 2.

[weeniepatrol]

Yikes. Nicole is strengthening at a much faster pace than the globals showed. Dropsonde got 995mb with 29 kt surface wind. Here's the GFS and Euro from a whopping two runs ago...

18z GFS


12z EC


each showing a pressure higher near landfall than it currently is now.

[DESTRUCTION5]

06 Euro looks to be northern St Lucie/Indian River. Stronger.

[kevin]

Intensity trend of the last 3 euro runs:

18z = 993 mb
00z = 991 mb
06z = 988 mb

Note that the Euro currently has it at 998 mb while in reality it's already at 992 mb. The latest Euro run doesn't even have Nicole at its current intensity until ~24 hours from now. I think a low 980s or upper 970s mb hurricane is becoming more and more realistic.

[NDG]

Intensity trend of the last 3 euro runs:

18z = 993 mb
00z = 991 mb
06z = 988 mb

Note that the Euro currently has it at 998 mb while in reality it's already at 992 mb. The latest Euro run doesn't even have Nicole at its current intensity until ~24 hours from now. I think a low 980s or upper 970s mb hurricane is becoming more and more realistic.

Yep, the Euro is a good 6 mb too high this morning.

[tolakram]

6Z HWRF

[NDG]

12z Hurricane models continue to shift north.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/Atmospheric_G2/status/1589968684700864514

[N2FSU]

Can anybody explain why these 12z tracks show the GFS and HWRF much further east than the latest 6z runs show?


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[chris_fit]

Yea, something is off here? the OFCL (Official Track?) does not match what's on NHC's site - like not even close.

[AutoPenalti]

Yea, something is off here? the OFCL (Official Track?) does not match what's on NHC's site - like not even close.

https://i.imgur.com/jMOl7DS.png

Intermediate advisories do not update track. Only regular advisories.

[N2FSU]

Yea, something is off here? the OFCL (Official Track?) does not match what's on NHC's site - like not even close.

https://i.imgur.com/jMOl7DS.png

Intermediate advisories do not update track. Only regular advisories.

Right, but that spaghetti model shows the OFCI NHC track shifted way east to almost Jax. That's not the latest NHC track.


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[chaser1]

Here's a head-scratcher. While HWRF continues to suggest even lower pressures up to landfall, I have yet to find more then a few 10 meter projected wind barbs even reaching 50 knots over land. Even the 70 knots predicted sure strikes me as the lowest wind speed I recall ever seeing for a landfalling hurricane with projected pressures possibly as low as the 970's.

[Poonwalker]

NHC not putting much stock in the GFS and Euro a mere 48 hrs out is very interesting with them bringing her in from Jupiter to PSL . 48 hrs out they used to be considered locks in regards to track.

They hug the tvcn mightly for a good reason, that said look no further than IAN to see how complicated these forecasts are primarily with the angles and a few miles difference on approach makes such a big difference on a landfall point, its simple geometry. Looks like Boca on the south end all the way up to Daytona is in play for landfall. The intensity this morning is the issue..big difference in storm power between a strong TS and a cat 2.

The euro is not handling the intensity well at all. The stronger the storm on approach the more likely it will take a northern turn in response to the trough. The intensity is the key and right now that is being determined by how quickly it can close itself off. I would say it has about 1/3 left on its SW side to complete a full core tropical transition.