ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Towers getting bigger now with colder cloud tops and heavier lightning.

[kevin]

Latest VIS of Nicole:

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1589978586618155010

[Nuno]

long IR loop from ST to Tropical
https://imgur.com/msxiB6b

Looks its feeling the high pressure already. Should start moving WSW or SW soon.

[eastcoastFL]

It's very gusty this morning at the beach in Juno. Not sure of that's the pressure gradient, nicole or a combo but it's howling from time to time.

[cycloneye]

Now moving westward.

[aspen]

Now moving westward.

https://i.imgur.com/iF8aC8Y.png

Kind of looks like that newer burst of convection tugged the center. Too bad recon cut out for 20 minutes and we don’t have data for the max winds, which may have been higher than that one 55 kt barb.

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok, so this is looking quite interesting....

[GCANE]

That small convection SE of the CoC has just gotten sucked into the tower.
Might see a good pressure drop in the next few recon passes.

[otowntiger]

https://i.imgur.com/Q75DW0d.gif

https://i.imgur.com/4BPkOwY.gif

Ok, so this is looking quite interesting....

Please elaborate. Does that show less wind shear than originally expected? Thanks.

[Jr0d]

NASA is leaving Artemis on the pad. Too late to roll back now as its already too windy.

I think this was extremely poor planning to rollout when the computer models even last Friday were in good agreement about the tropical threat.

Now this will be on the pad with little protection in hurricane conditions. While there is no doubt some of the Space Shuttles endured extreme winds during severe thunderstorms in the pad, those were short duration events and the shuttle had some protection on the pad with the large "RSS" rotating service structure that offered some protection for the shuttle and enabled access to the cargo bay.

This will be a prolonged wind event and no doubt will cause not only further delays but could potentially damage Artemis 1 beyond repair.

[Jevo]

There’s that’s wsw movement we’ve been waiting for. It was a matter of time as it slowed down to go around the thumb ridge

[cycloneye]

NASA is leaving Artemis on the pad. Too late to roll back now as its already too windy.

I think this was extremely poor planning to rollout when the computer models even last Friday were in good agreement about the tropical threat.

Now this will be on the pad with little protection in hurricane conditions. While there is no doubt some of the Space Shuttles endured extreme winds during severe thunderstorms in the pad, those were short duration events and the shuttle had some protection on the pad with the large "RSS" rotating service structure that offered some protection for the shuttle and enabled access to the cargo bay.

This will be a prolonged wind event and no doubt will cause not only further delays but could potentially damage Artemis 1 beyond repair.

Oh boy. That project has been thru many delays and now looks like another one.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/Q75DW0d.gif

https://i.imgur.com/4BPkOwY.gif

Ok, so this is looking quite interesting....

Please elaborate. Does that show less wind shear than originally expected? Thanks.

Yes, exactly. The mid level and deep layer shear do not look as bad over Nicole, but what I find particularly interesting is how Nicole is basically "cocooned" in a protective bubble, away from the higher areas of mid level shear.

[GCANE]

NASA is leaving Artemis on the pad. Too late to roll back now as its already too windy.

I think this was extremely poor planning to rollout when the computer models even last Friday were in good agreement about the tropical threat.

Now this will be on the pad with little protection in hurricane conditions. While there is no doubt some of the Space Shuttles endured extreme winds during severe thunderstorms in the pad, those were short duration events and the shuttle had some protection on the pad with the large "RSS" rotating service structure that offered some protection for the shuttle and enabled access to the cargo bay.

This will be a prolonged wind event and no doubt will cause not only further delays but could potentially damage Artemis 1 beyond repair.

Billions of dollars down the drain if that happens.

[NDG]

12z mid levels, here’s the ridge that will be pushing east and push Nicole westward towards FL at the same time, question is how far south-west it gets pushed before the more westward track begins tomorrow night.



Working in S FL this morning then heading back to Orlando this afternoon to hunker down, is dejavú all over again, I was down here as well before Ian heading to FL.

[jlauderdal]

There’s that’s wsw movement we’ve been waiting for. It was a matter of time as it slowed down to go around the thumb ridge

The good old thumb ridge, I haven't seen that term here in awhile. If memory serves me correctly, there was thumb ridge that played a big part with IRMA

[Blown Away]

WOW, amazing transition!
I see hint of WSW, NHC has that starting after 18Z.

[Coolcruiseman]

More north the track now near Melbourne.

https://i.imgur.com/FfgBWZx.jpg

Not cool not cool. Especially when coupled with the "reports" last night that Cantore is in town (well Melbourne Beach)

[Coolcruiseman]

She’s looking healthier. Wonder if they’re going to evacuate the beaches

Any closures and evacs were to be announced today according to yesterday's 4 pm update from Brevard EM