ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skillz305]

They’re making us come into work to build boats tomorrow on the Treasure Coast

[jlauderdal]

They’re making us come into work to build boats tomorrow on the Treasure Coast

See what happens when you are under a hurricane warning shortly.

[fsucory08]

Preparing for a cat 2 here in PSL today after work. I know the trends are north of us, but SLC is close enough to the center that any slight wobbles or movement SW could mean a direct hit. Not taking any chances.

[Coolcruiseman]

It's very gusty this morning at the beach in Juno. Not sure of that's the pressure gradient, nicole or a combo but it's howling from time to time.

Getting the same here, spooked the dog on a morning stroll. Current sustained in the 25 mph range already.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172022
1500 UTC TUE NOV 08 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BOCA RATON TO THE
FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE
SAVANNAH RIVER.

[Category5Kaiju]

And she has just shed the "sub" label on her name officially!

Game on folks.

[Pelicane]

Looks like they adjusted the pressure upwards from 992 to 994 mb.

EDIT: The discussion says 992 mb so not sure why the discrepancy lol.

[fsucory08]

Important note from the NHC Discussion.

The typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models are along the southern side
of the guidance envelope, while the regional hurricane models (HWRF
and HMON) are on the northern side. Since the storm is likely near
the apex of its most northern point, it is worth noting the the
model trackers are noticeable north of the raw model fields. In
fact, the GFS tracker is about 45-50 n mi north of its raw fields.
The NHC track is very close to the previous forecast, which is
along the southern side of dynamical model trackers and is closest
to the GFS ensemble mean. Until the guidance stabilizes, it is
prudent not to make any significant changes.

[Poonwalker]

I like looking at the water vapor loops which tell the evolutionary story better. As a subtropical cyclone Nicole was imbedded in an ULL feature which was imparting a large rotation around a poorly defined elliptical center. You can see Nicole now breaking free of that as the ULL to the east is detaching and moving northward. Nicole is now dropping her snorkel SW and should complete a full tropical core transition today as she creates more distance from the ULL and gets better insulated.

[SFLcane]

I am now under hurricane warning did not see that coming as the models shifted north but ok.

[fsucory08]

I am now under hurricane warning did not see that coming as the models shifted north but ok.

The NHC is being cautious because the GFS ensembles are south of the operational by 45-50 N mi.
GFS and EURO also landfall in south of the other models.

"The typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models are along the southern side
of the guidance envelope, while the regional hurricane models (HWRF
and HMON) are on the northern side. Since the storm is likely near
the apex of its most northern point, it is worth noting the the
model trackers are noticeable north of the raw model fields. In
fact, the GFS tracker is about 45-50 n mi north of its raw fields.
The NHC track is very close to the previous forecast, which is
along the southern side of dynamical model trackers and is closest
to the GFS ensemble mean. Until the guidance stabilizes, it is
prudent not to make any significant changes."

[toad strangler]

Hurricane WARNING now in Port St. Lucie

[skillz305]

Hurricane WARNING now in Port St. Lucie

Yep and they’re still saying we gotta work a full day tomorrow 6am-4:30pm

[fsucory08]

Here in SLC and now worried about models shifting back south. I don't know how to post pictures correctly, but the 12z Icon is well west and south of the 6z. Landfalls in SLC. Icon is almost identical to the 6z Euro and just a hair north of the GFS

[cycloneye]

[AutoPenalti]

I am now under hurricane warning did not see that coming as the models shifted north but ok.

The NHC is being cautious because the GFS ensembles are south of the operational by 45-50 N mi.
GFS and EURO also landfall in south of the other models.

"The typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models are along the southern side
of the guidance envelope, while the regional hurricane models (HWRF
and HMON) are on the northern side. Since the storm is likely near
the apex of its most northern point, it is worth noting the the
model trackers are noticeable north of the raw model fields. In
fact, the GFS tracker is about 45-50 n mi north of its raw fields.
The NHC track is very close to the previous forecast, which is
along the southern side of dynamical model trackers and is closest
to the GFS ensemble mean. Until the guidance stabilizes, it is
prudent not to make any significant changes."

Very interesting update. Ensembles still aren't in agreement even in such a short amount of time.

[Jr0d]

I am now under hurricane warning did not see that coming as the models shifted north but ok.

Expect the models to swing south tomorrow morning as they digest the WSW motion Nichole is expected to take later today.

I could be wrong...i expected them to swing a bit north(they did) when Nichole hit the apex of the north movement.

It is also important to note that Nichole is about a full degree south of what the models were showing the Apex yesterday (if i recall correctly).

As usual, no reason to doubt the NHC and for good reason they did not shift the track north, despite the models trending north on the latest run.

[GCANE]

I hope this doesn't turn out where this is sitting in the middle of a PV ring

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

[fsucory08]

I am now under hurricane warning did not see that coming as the models shifted north but ok.

Expect the models to swing south tomorrow morning as they digest the WSW motion Nichole is expected to take later today.

I could be wrong...i expected them to swing a bit north(they did) when Nichole hit the apex of the north movement.

It is also important to note that Nichole is about a full degree south of what the models were showing the Apex yesterday (if i recall correctly).

As usual, no reason to doubt the NHC and for good reason they did not shift the track north, despite the models trending north on the latest run.

I agree, and like I said in my previous post, look at the 12z Icon. It has fallen in line close to the Euro/GFS solution of Martin/SLC. I am preparing for a direct hit here I just hope others in SLC are doing the same

[GCANE]

Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 08 2022

Deep convection has developed and persisted near the center of
Nicole this morning and while there are still some characteristics
of a subtropical cyclone, the smaller radius of maximum winds and
improving inner-core convection suggest it has made the transition
to a tropical cyclone.