ATL: NICOLE - Models

[chaser1]

As for northward track adjustments, sure.... the 500mb orientation would suggest a deep tropical cyclone should respond with a distinct West to WSW motion given the location and strength of the mid level bubble ridge over the Tennessee valley. What I believe may be occurring is a far more "smoothed" out west and sooner WNW track as a result of primary steering being controlled by lower level ridging centered over and east of the US seaboard. It feels like watching a shallow tropical system move along with what was the old "Shallow BAM" models.

[chris_fit]

FWIW - 06Z GFS Ens means seems to be West/South of the OP

[chris_fit]

06Z Guidance




Early 12Z Guidance (Much More North)

[Jr0d]

As for northward track adjustments, sure.... the 500mb orientation would suggest a deep tropical cyclone should respond with a distinct West to WSW motion given the location and strength of the mid level bubble ridge over the Tennessee valley. What I believe may be occurring is a far more "smoothed" out west and sooner WNW track as a result of primary steering being controlled by lower level ridging centered over and east of the US seaboard. It feels like watching a shallow tropical system move along with what was the old "Shallow BAM" models.

The models were not showing the WSW to SW dive until later tonight through most of Wednesday.

These WSW dives are tough to forecast but most certainly will happen with Nichole. I think this is the biggest question mark on the ultimate track. We have seen countless storms make the south dive with no forecast, so my opinion is it may dive further south than the models are indicating.

Also the models are in good agreement that Nichole will
transition to fully tropical while taking the south dive. This will enable Nichole to become a hurricane.

[cane5]

As for northward track adjustments, sure.... the 500mb orientation would suggest a deep tropical cyclone should respond with a distinct West to WSW motion given the location and strength of the mid level bubble ridge over the Tennessee valley. What I believe may be occurring is a far more "smoothed" out west and sooner WNW track as a result of primary steering being controlled by lower level ridging centered over and east of the US seaboard. It feels like watching a shallow tropical system move along with what was the old "Shallow BAM" models.

The models were not showing the WSW to SW dive until later tonight through most of Wednesday.

These WSW dives are tough to forecast but most certainly will happen with Nichole. I think this is the biggest question mark on the ultimate track. We have seen countless storms make the south dive with no forecast, so my opinion is it may dive further south than the models are indicating.

Also the models are in good agreement that Nichole will
transition to fully tropical while taking the south dive. This will enable Nichole to become a hurricane.

The models now show a weaker high pressure ridge which is why the track has moved a bit north pretty logical stuff. ICON nailed it again. And being in Miami I am breathing easier today.

[Jr0d]

The models now show a weaker high pressure ridge which is why the track has moved a bit north pretty logical stuff. ICON nailed it again. And being in Miami I am breathing easier today.

Interesting that at the last minute the models show a weaker ridge. Regardless it will be strong enough to push Nichole WSW later tonight through most of Wednesday.

As I have seen in the past, the models almost always under estimated how much a dive south the storm goes and I still think this can not be ignored..even with it being November and climatology speaking we should not have a ridge pushing a storm into Florida.

ICON has not nailed anything yet, we are still over 36 hours from landfall.

Dont count your chickens before they hatch.

[fsucory08]

As for northward track adjustments, sure.... the 500mb orientation would suggest a deep tropical cyclone should respond with a distinct West to WSW motion given the location and strength of the mid level bubble ridge over the Tennessee valley. What I believe may be occurring is a far more "smoothed" out west and sooner WNW track as a result of primary steering being controlled by lower level ridging centered over and east of the US seaboard. It feels like watching a shallow tropical system move along with what was the old "Shallow BAM" models.

The models were not showing the WSW to SW dive until later tonight through most of Wednesday.

These WSW dives are tough to forecast but most certainly will happen with Nichole. I think this is the biggest question mark on the ultimate track. We have seen countless storms make the south dive with no forecast, so my opinion is it may dive further south than the models are indicating.

Also the models are in good agreement that Nichole will
transition to fully tropical while taking the south dive. This will enable Nichole to become a hurricane.

The models now show a weaker high pressure ridge which is why the track has moved a bit north pretty logical stuff. ICON nailed it again. And being in Miami I am breathing easier today.

While true I think it's still too early to rule out Northern PBC to SLC. The GFS and Euro at 6z still show that solution and it's still possible other models are underestimating the ridge. Either way, the angle of approach is going to make even slight differences important for landfall location

[tolakram]

As for northward track adjustments, sure.... the 500mb orientation would suggest a deep tropical cyclone should respond with a distinct West to WSW motion given the location and strength of the mid level bubble ridge over the Tennessee valley. What I believe may be occurring is a far more "smoothed" out west and sooner WNW track as a result of primary steering being controlled by lower level ridging centered over and east of the US seaboard. It feels like watching a shallow tropical system move along with what was the old "Shallow BAM" models.

The models were not showing the WSW to SW dive until later tonight through most of Wednesday.

These WSW dives are tough to forecast but most certainly will happen with Nichole. I think this is the biggest question mark on the ultimate track. We have seen countless storms make the south dive with no forecast, so my opinion is it may dive further south than the models are indicating.

Also the models are in good agreement that Nichole will
transition to fully tropical while taking the south dive. This will enable Nichole to become a hurricane.

The models now show a weaker high pressure ridge which is why the track has moved a bit north pretty logical stuff. ICON nailed it again. And being in Miami I am breathing easier today.

I didn't realize it already happened. Please don't make posts like these in the model thread, it only underlines the fact you don't know how to use the models and can be dangerous both to you and anyone who reads it thinking the ICON is some glorious model that is always right.

[SFLcane]

12z icon SW of 06z into near Palm Beach.

[fsucory08]

I'm not sure how to post pictures, but wow the 12z Icon is well West and South of the 6z, very close to the 6z Euro and not far off the GFS which is still further south

[ronjon]

From the 10am NHC discussion:

Since the storm is likely near the apex of its most northern point, it is worth noting the the model trackers are noticeable north of the raw model fields. In fact, the GFS tracker is about 45-50 n mi north of its raw fields. The NHC track is very close to the previous forecast, which is along the southern side of dynamical model trackers and is closest to the GFS ensemble mean. Until the guidance stabilizes, it is prudent not to make any significant changes.

Can anyone figure out what is being said here? Are they saying the model tracks are north of the observed data now since Nicole has reached its furthest north latitude?

[otowntiger]

06Z Guidance

https://i.imgur.com/Y9YPNbh.png


Early 12Z Guidance (Much More North)


https://i.imgur.com/t568n3S.png

if those shifts to the north hold and a more northerly track verifies those of us in the metro Orlando area and south would feel significantly lesser affects it would seem. But at the same time increase them for our friends in north central and perhaps Northeastern FL, including Daytona, St. Aug. and even Jax. I guess we’ll see. Could still be some windshield wiper affects occurring but we are getting mighty close in time for much more of that.

[SouthFLTropics]

Model Windshield wiper in full effect… Grand Bahama Island is the benchmark. If it passes south of Grand Bahama then it will most likely be a Jupiter to Fort Pierce landfall. If it is north of Grand Bahama most likely Fort Pierce to Melbourne. The models are locking in on a solution.


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[cane5]

The models were not showing the WSW to SW dive until later tonight through most of Wednesday.

These WSW dives are tough to forecast but most certainly will happen with Nichole. I think this is the biggest question mark on the ultimate track. We have seen countless storms make the south dive with no forecast, so my opinion is it may dive further south than the models are indicating.

Also the models are in good agreement that Nichole will
transition to fully tropical while taking the south dive. This will enable Nichole to become a hurricane.

The models now show a weaker high pressure ridge which is why the track has moved a bit north pretty logical stuff. ICON nailed it again. And being in Miami I am breathing easier today.

I didn't realize it already happened. Please don't make posts like these in the model thread, it only underlines the fact you don't know how to use the models and can be dangerous both to you and anyone who reads it thinking the ICON is some glorious model that is always right.

It’s a little silly to say I don’t know how to use the models when the models interpret the environment you or I have little to do with it. And while it’s not over until Its not dangerous to compliment a model that’s just stupid. And the fact is the ICON yesterday strangely I thought had it too high but read the high ridge better than the other models….period

[LarryWx]

12Z ICON landfalls near Stuart. That is nearly 50 miles south of the 6Z, which was 15-20 miles north of Vero.

6Z UKMET was just south of Cape Canaveral.

[chris_fit]

12z GFS Running

@24hrs -Stronger and slightly more N than previous runs

Trend:

[Hurricane Mike]

I definitely think a short-term southwest motion could occur, but that doesn't mean it can't bump further northwest in 24-36 hrs.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS looks SW and into Palm beach

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z GFS Cat 2 into WPB

[cycloneye]

12z GFS looks SW and into Palm beach

At 983 mbs.