ATL: NICOLE - Models

[jhpigott]

Anybody have the new 12z model from for the HAFS v0.3S? It's stuck on hour 3 over at Tropical Tidbits.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z Euro landfall in less than 40 hrs in Port st Lucie area. Stronger.

[Nimbus]

Interesting to note the 12z GFS keeps it a hurricane across the state, something my local station are not publically saying. How can this track stay so south when official track stays North?

Its one model run in a very unstable modeling environment, will have to see a solid trend which we dont have. We had south and west trend yesterday which evaporated today and of course has increased anxiety, even at NHC.

The ridge capture looks like it completed a little earlier than models anticipated and the official track may have to lag a little as they bring that south again. If recon finds a stronger storm that could mess with the models as well.

[tolakram]

[LarryWx]

12z Euro landfall in less than 40 hrs in Port st Lucie area. Stronger.

Since the 6Z Euro was near Ft. Pierce, the 12Z Euro is based on your info ~15 miles south of the 6Z. This means that all of the major dynamic models are south of their respective 6Z runs at FL landfall. But the HWRF was a little north at 12Z.

[SFLcane]

[Blown Away]

12z Euro landfall in less than 40 hrs in Port st Lucie area. Stronger.

This is just a thing between us MC residents, but I have Sewall's Point for EURO based on latitude. I know it's insignificant.

[Coolcruiseman]

From the 1 pm update:

"A west-southwest motion is expected through early Wednesday. A west-northwest motion is forecast to begin on Wednesday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on Thursday and Thursday night."

Was this expected and taken into account by the models?

[tolakram]

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z Euro landfall in less than 40 hrs in Port st Lucie area. Stronger.

This is just a thing between us MC residents, but I have Sewall's Point for EURO based on latitude. I know it's insignificant.

definitely different tax brackets.

[Blown Away]

I’m not a GFS hugger, but 12z is in Palm Beach County… Being @36 hours out I’m stunned how off the model is from the NHC track.

[chaser1]

As for northward track adjustments, sure.... the 500mb orientation would suggest a deep tropical cyclone should respond with a distinct West to WSW motion given the location and strength of the mid level bubble ridge over the Tennessee valley. What I believe may be occurring is a far more "smoothed" out west and sooner WNW track as a result of primary steering being controlled by lower level ridging centered over and east of the US seaboard. It feels like watching a shallow tropical system move along with what was the old "Shallow BAM" models.

The models were not showing the WSW to SW dive until later tonight through most of Wednesday.

These WSW dives are tough to forecast but most certainly will happen with Nichole. I think this is the biggest question mark on the ultimate track. We have seen countless storms make the south dive with no forecast, so my opinion is it may dive further south than the models are indicating.

Also the models are in good agreement that Nichole will
transition to fully tropical while taking the south dive. This will enable Nichole to become a hurricane.

The models now show a weaker high pressure ridge which is why the track has moved a bit north pretty logical stuff. ICON nailed it again. And being in Miami I am breathing easier today.

ICON (Blind squirel - nut)

[AxaltaRacing24]

The models were not showing the WSW to SW dive until later tonight through most of Wednesday.

These WSW dives are tough to forecast but most certainly will happen with Nichole. I think this is the biggest question mark on the ultimate track. We have seen countless storms make the south dive with no forecast, so my opinion is it may dive further south than the models are indicating.

Also the models are in good agreement that Nichole will
transition to fully tropical while taking the south dive. This will enable Nichole to become a hurricane.

The models now show a weaker high pressure ridge which is why the track has moved a bit north pretty logical stuff. ICON nailed it again. And being in Miami I am breathing easier today.

ICON (Blind squirel - nut)

The ICON also just took a pretty decent shift south at 12z after "nailing it" too.

[jlauderdal]

I’m not a GFS hugger, but 12z is in Palm Beach County… Being @36 hours out I’m stunned how off the model is from the NHC track.

So is the NHC as alluded to in the last discussion...GFS has been good for this system so it has to be taken seriously.

[hurricane2025]

Could see a cat 3

[AutoPenalti]

Could see a cat 3

A cat 3 would be unprecedented. I don't think it will intensify that much.

[Poonwalker]

I’m not a GFS hugger, but 12z is in Palm Beach County… Being @36 hours out I’m stunned how off the model is from the NHC track.

Iam with you on that one. GFS has handled this storm accurately so far, I would be surprised we don't see them update the track to the left with another run supporting that response.

[hurricane2025]

[Tweet][/Tweet]

Could see a cat 3

A cat 3 would be unprecedented. I don't think it will intensify that much.

Hwrf and haf show cat 3

[Blown Away]

I’m not a GFS hugger, but 12z is in Palm Beach County… Being @36 hours out I’m stunned how off the model is from the NHC track.

So is the NHC as alluded to in the last discussion...GFS has been good for this system so it has to be taken seriously.

How does, if any, would a stronger deeper hurricane moving WSW respond to a very strong HP?? Past examples they go farther S? Does this apply here?

[tolakram]

[url][/url]

Could see a cat 3

A cat 3 would be unprecedented. I don't think it will intensify that much.

Hwrf and haf show cat 3

HWRF max winds are just cat 1 for the latest run, reducing prior to landfall.