ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

Wouldn’t be surprised if recon found pressures in the mid 980s

[Coolcruiseman]

The GEFS 12z has members into Broward. So the odds are a bit higher than slim IMO.

The NHC track is over 100 miles north from the Broward PBC line so the odds are still pretty slim that the storm makes landfall south of Broward County. Just look at the odds for hurricane force winds in broward...they're quite slim.

Those odds will be increasing in the next package and into tomorrow as the storm gets closer and the track adjusts south.

Perhaps tomorrow if the trend continues beyond just the 12z runs. NHC is going to remain cautious having covered themselves with the issuing of Hurricane warnings from Boca north into Georgia at 11 am. The key is going to be after the WSW turn how long does it take for the WNW turn discussed to initiate.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The path and structure is similar to a certain storm in August 2019 in this stage of its life.

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1590065951512612864

[weeniepatrol]

[tolakram]

Still needs to shake off some dry air in my opinion.

saved loop

[Coolcruiseman]

Brevard county has issued recommended evacuations for the following:

- Residents who live on the barrier islands, including areas from Kennedy Space Center south beaches, and Merritt Island
- Residents in mobile homes or manufactured housing
- Residences in low-lying, flood-prone areas
- Any residents with special medical needs such as electrical dependence

https://www.brevardfl.gov/communication ... lease/9015

[cycloneye]

Inner core forming.

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1590068380840890369

[tolakram]

IR saved loop

[jhpigott]

Probably gradient driven, but wind has been picking up steady this afternoon in the Juno Beach area. PBI reporting winds N 25 G 32 mph

[GCANE]

I think it's struggling with a PV streamer that got over it.
Sat radar looked really good, but then cloud tops warmed.
New tower firing at 27.1N 74.1W
It needs a really good long-duration hot tower to kick out all the UL influences.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1590070900271243264

[PavelGaborik10]

Weird system, but I guess that's expected given the circumstances.

Tropical looking inner core with the coma hook of what many Atlantic Canadians know as a "Nor' Easter"

[Tinman53]

Volusia County issuing EVAC orders for barrier island and mobile homes east of I-95. Schools closed next two days (at least) and currently planning to open 4 shelters.

Getting some pretty strong feeder bands this afternoon in northern Volusia County.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1590068197319127041

[Poonwalker]

I will say one thing I have noticed the last few hours. It has done an incredible job with walling off it's south flank after detaching from that ULL, and quickly. There's still an open dry slot intrusion on the NE flank, but if it can close that off we will see a CDO form and it could be off to the races.

[ScottNAtlanta]

There is still a lot of dry air. Lots of collapsing boundaries coming off the south side, but this really reminds me of all those high latitude storms we have seen this season in its structure.

[jlauderdal]

IR saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/D81a2sn.gif

The SW quad looks like a battering ram, not the best looking tropical system but an over-achiever so far and that looks to continue, prepare for one category higher so a 2, full shutters and fuel Palm Beach and north, will see if that needs to come south. No shutters here but ready to spring into action if needed, my wife is putting some pressure on, so far I have been able to use the "its going" north justification but NHC goes into Palm Beach and I'm toast.

[eastcoastFL]

Probably gradient driven, but wind has been picking up steady this afternoon in the Juno Beach area. PBI reporting winds N 25 G 32 mph

My office is in juno just across from the beach and wind has been steady and gusty all day. It's cloudy now too with low level clouds moving pretty quick. So far we are business as usual for tomorrow.