ATL: NICOLE - Recon - Discussion

[cycloneye]

NOAA gulfstream jet plane flying now.

[cycloneye]

There was a gap from early this mornings last mission until now that the NOAA plane is on route.

[cycloneye]

AF plane is also on route. Who helps with the posting at recon thread?

[TallahasseeMan]

Winds relatively weak for such a low pressure reading. Max looks to be ~58-60 kts

[cycloneye]

Pressure was 986 mbs with 60kt max flight level winds.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure was 986 mbs with 60kt max flight level winds.

The data supports the current 55 kt intensity, but with a lower pressure.

[cycloneye]

That 75kt was flagged.

[Nimbus]

Pressure was 986 mbs with 60kt max flight level winds.

The data supports the current 55 kt intensity, but with a lower pressure.

Relatively small eye where the updraft spirals so it didn't pull in as much dry inflow from the east today.
Outflow is probably moistening the air to the west now but earlier WXman57 mentioned humidity readings were quite low as far south as JAX.
Models are showing increasing moisture before landfall but we might get an Eyewall replacement cycle before then.

[Pelicane]

Dropsonde was 984 mb. It dropped 1 mb between passes.

[cycloneye]

That 75kt was flagged.

It turned out it was not flagged.

URNT12 KBIX 090015
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL172022
A. 08/23:44:30Z
B. 27.24 deg N 074.25 deg W
C. 850 mb 1280 m
D. 984 mb
E. 095 deg 7 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 56 kt
I. 331 deg 16 nm 23:34:30Z
J. 068 deg 75 kt
K. 331 deg 16 nm 23:34:30Z
L. 41 kt
M. 118 deg 11 nm 23:51:30Z
N. 202 deg 48 kt
O. 121 deg 14 nm 23:52:30Z
P. 13 C / 1518 m
Q. 20 C / 1522 m
R. 15 C / NA
S. 12345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 0.8 nm
U. AF306 0817A NICOLE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 75 KT 331 / 16 NM 23:34:30Z

[cycloneye]

The latest VDM has center closed with 72kt. Will they upgrade to hurricane at 1 PM?

[cycloneye]

Next 2 missions will be after 4 PM EST.

[cycloneye]

The two planes are flying now.

[Jr0d]

Looks like the NOAA plane is now doing a SAR mission, circling around an area between WPB and Grand Bahamas

[stormhunter7]

Just watched Miss Piggy flyover me here in Panama City Beach. Could hear those engines as she was passing over at 21kft. NOAA43

[cycloneye]

Earlier this afternoon, an AF plane was going to fly into Nicole but turned back as the center never made it well in the water in NE GOM, but moving along the coastline.