ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

The storm has been performing quite well compared to initial expectations, so I honestly don't think that that will be a big detriment in the long run.

I think the presence of dry air is why they've kept max intensity at 75mph.

I think the NHC letting the public digest a very big track change leaving it a 75 mph. Based on trends this afternoon, I think they bump it up to 80-85 mph at next advisory.

I think they want to see if it can close off that eye wall and mix out the dry air. If so it could take off along the gulf stream. Thank God it doesn't have a ton of real estate to work with.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Maybe the first moisture from Nicole reaching fort lauderdale. heavy rain just over the water coming in from the NE. Kinda had this last night, but the intensity tonight is much greater.

[eastcoastFL]

Maybe the first moisture from Nicole reaching fort lauderdale. heavy rain just over the water coming in from the NE. Kinda had this last night, but the intensity tonight is much greater.

I hit some squally weather riding home up US1 from jupiter to Stuart. She's coming.

[GCANE]

UL WV imagery showing moisture moving in from west to east south of the convection.
Likely will reduce the PV streamer Nicole is currently dealing.
May see a stronger system around dawn in the morning when at DMAX

[Sanibel]

It's got hurricane written all over it...

Gust were kicking up dust on Sanibel...

Mostly sunny with thin low level band clouds moving in in rotation overhead...

[Michele B]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1590109664204976131?s=20&t=iy98RykVwq_2MiZkv_o0SA

This is great news for those of us who just suffered Ian's wrath.

[rigbyrigz]

Several major models still show it over GOM and moving more westerly than NHC 4PM forecast says for a bit. I remember Irma strengthened over warm water last few hours going due N and we had unexpected 90 in Big Bend with even higher gusts. Hope this doesn't happen this go-round...

But when NHC says (at 4PM) "forecast to pass near or over the west coast of Florida north of Tampa by about 48 h. This should be followed by a turn toward the north and northeast " they seems to blend models and hedge a bit much... if this "turn" happens 6 hours later, then a LOT can happen (here.) The "followed by a turn" is perhaps unfortunate imprecise and even misleading wording I fear. (PS: I hate "blends" and TVCN)

[Patrick99]

Maybe the first moisture from Nicole reaching fort lauderdale. heavy rain just over the water coming in from the NE. Kinda had this last night, but the intensity tonight is much greater.

Looks to be confirmed on the MIMIC TPW - appears that the edge of the deeper moisture associated with Nicole has reached SFL.

[sweetpea]

Several major models still show it over GOM and moving more westerly than NHC 4PM forecast says for a bit. I remember Irma strengthened over warm water last few hours going due N and we had unexpected 90 in Big Bend with even higher gusts. Hope this doesn't happen this go-round...

But when NHC says (at 4PM) "forecast to pass near or over the west coast of Florida north of Tampa by about 48 h. This should be followed by a turn toward the north and northeast " they seems to blend models and hedge a bit much... if this "turn" happens 6 hours later, then a LOT can happen (here.) The "followed by a turn" is perhaps unfortunate imprecise and even misleading wording I fear. (PS: I hate "blends" and TVCN)

I have been thinking the same thing. We could be potentially be the 2nd landfall, granted it won't be as strong as were it comes on the east coast. But almost every model has it coming in pretty close to over my head. We prepped here today. So we will wait and see. Be safe to everyone in the path of this storm!!!

[ObsessedMiami]

Winds definitely freshening up here in West Kendall. Nothing outrageous but clearly changes afoot

[idaknowman]

Miami-Dade county public schools closed Wednesday.

[Orlandocane]

Winds gusting @ 26 knots in north Orlando, heavy rain for 15 minutes, rain gauge already at 2 inches!


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[cheezyWXguy]

Did AF306 really find 75kt FL winds? Seems to be reading a good bit higher than the NOAA mission

[rigbyrigz]

Eye?

[eastcoastFL]

Eye? https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/1318/gyC4Bv.jpg

I think it's a dry slot but might be an eye in the making. I know recon said it was open to the east.

[eastcoastFL]

Has Aric chimed in on this storm at all? He sure makes things make a lot more sense.

[cane5]

WC just confirmed the sw movement…..

[cycloneye]

WSW.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 74.3W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

[jlauderdal]

WSW.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 74.3W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

This is like when Floyd was coming at us, and we needed a turn. The stakes were far higher with Floyd.

[Blown Away]

Looks like the little LLC swirl is turning into a big eye?