ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cane5
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#781 Postby cane5 » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:12 pm

Thank god with how big this storm is it won’t have time to develop in a way it could. A November freak for sure.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#782 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:14 pm

cane5 wrote:Thank god with how big this storm is it won’t have time to develop in a way it could. A November freak for sure.

Bro, this storm is overperforming, its just about maximizing everything it has to work with
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#783 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:15 pm

Good luck to all my South Florida bros. This could get wicked quickly.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#784 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:16 pm

johngaltfla wrote:Good luck to all my South Florida bros. This could get wicked quickly.

You had your scare with ian, now its our turn.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#785 Postby Zonacane » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:16 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:

I think it's a dry slot but might be an eye in the making. I know recon said it was open to the east.

That is a legitimate eye
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#786 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:18 pm

Zonacane wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:

I think it's a dry slot but might be an eye in the making. I know recon said it was open to the east.

That is a legitimate eye

Did anyone yesterday think we would have such a well-developed system this early?
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#787 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:19 pm

Meanwhile we're at 983 and dropping..
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#788 Postby Nimbus » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:22 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
cane5 wrote:Thank god with how big this storm is it won’t have time to develop in a way it could. A November freak for sure.

Bro, this storm is overperforming, its just about maximizing everything it has to work with


Really bad luck, with that small updraft eye its only feeding off the warm local SST's and the outflow is gradually bringing the humidity back up over a larger area ahead. If it had just got greedy and gulped some dry air..
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#789 Postby emeraldislenc » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:22 pm

It is developing faster than I thought it would!
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#790 Postby Weatherboy1 » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:23 pm

Did not shutter here in Jupiter. Thinking worst case is Irene 1999 kind of scenario. But really hope I don’t wake up to a big surprise. Will have to do some last minute prep (though have water, canned stuff etc etc already)
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#791 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:23 pm

Zonacane wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:

I think it's a dry slot but might be an eye in the making. I know recon said it was open to the east.

That is a legitimate eye

Yep, microwave images earlier confirm this. Though it is weird to have an eye with only a -15-20C eyewall. Good bones, but needs some meat on them if it’s gonna keep intensifying much more
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#792 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:23 pm

Dry air really took a toll on Nicole’s convection, but the pressure continues to drop according to AF306’s first eyewall dropsonde. Nicole could become a stronger hurricane than forecast once it mixes out that dry air, based on how it’s been running ahead of the NHC and model forecasts all day, but it’ll probably end up with a far lower pressure than normal for whatever wind speed it ends up with like Danielle, Fiona, and Martin. I’m almost expecting yet another 75 kt hurricane since we’re already at a streak of 3, why end now lol.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#793 Postby weathernet » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:24 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:Good luck to all my South Florida bros. This could get wicked quickly.

You had your scare with Ian, now its our turn.

We had a scare with Ian and now with Nicole LOL.
Tim 8-)
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#794 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:27 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Zonacane wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:I think it's a dry slot but might be an eye in the making. I know recon said it was open to the east.

That is a legitimate eye

Did anyone yesterday think we would have such a well-developed system this early?


I sure didn’t expect it to wrap up until it was between the Bahamas and Florida. Scary to think what it would’ve been if it were late September.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#795 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:28 pm

Weatherboy1 wrote:Did not shutter here in Jupiter. Thinking worst case is Irene 1999 kind of scenario. But really hope I don’t wake up to a big surprise. Will have to do some last minute prep (though have water, canned stuff etc etc already)


I’m about 20 minutes north of you and haven’t shuttered yet either. I’ll have to do it in the morning if it’s still headed this way.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#796 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:33 pm

The moisture ahead of Nicole continues to expand. Just this morning dry air covered all of Florida and the waters between Florida and the Bahamas. Looks like it’s been pushed back towards the gulf as Nicole moves west


Image
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#797 Postby eastcoastFL » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:35 pm

Good bit of storms heading into extreme SE FL


Image
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#798 Postby toad strangler » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:37 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
Weatherboy1 wrote:Did not shutter here in Jupiter. Thinking worst case is Irene 1999 kind of scenario. But really hope I don’t wake up to a big surprise. Will have to do some last minute prep (though have water, canned stuff etc etc already)


I’m about 20 minutes north of you and haven’t shuttered yet either. I’ll have to do it in the morning if it’s still headed this way.


I’m not shuttering in PSL West.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#799 Postby cane5 » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:42 pm

So it looks like Dade and Broward will be about the only counties on the clean side of Nicole. Once again the storm gods have our back. Goodnight and good luck to the millions that will not be as lucky :flag:
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#800 Postby boca » Tue Nov 08, 2022 7:46 pm

Will Nicole’s pressure dictate how long it will move WSW before the turn WNW across the state.I saw a post that Aric posted about this earlier tonight.
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