ATL: NICOLE - Models

[SFLcane]

[eastcoastFL]

Spaghetti plots all still way off raw data.

You mean they don’t include current recon data?

Long story short the spaghetti plots are 40-50 miles north than the raw data plots. See the 11am discussion about it. It's a few pages back.

So these plots are from this morning?

[chris_fit]

18z Ukmet anyone?

Euro @ 18Z shifted W a bit

[DESTRUCTION5]

You mean they don’t include current recon data?

Long story short the spaghetti plots are 40-50 miles north than the raw data plots. See the 11am discussion about it. It's a few pages back.

So these plots are from this morning?

No they are just wrong period. Lol

From the 11am

Since the storm is likely near
the apex of its most northern point, it is worth noting the the
model trackers are noticeable north of the raw model fields. In
fact, the GFS tracker is about 45-50 n mi north of its raw fields.
The NHC track is very close to the previous forecast, which is
along the southern side of dynamical model trackers and is closest
to the GFS ensemble mean. Until the guidance stabilizes, it is
prudent not to make any significant changes.

[jlauderdal]

https://i.postimg.cc/0rR77y86/CE74184-D-502-C-40-D6-9995-143-B36-FACA07.jpg

That looks south to me, real far south.

[gatorcane]

18Z Euro shifted slightly SW

[gatorcane]

Euro trend:

[LarryWx]

18z Ukmet anyone?

Euro @ 18Z shifted W a bit

18Z UKMET is near Vero Beach, which is ~20 miles south of 12Z and about an hour earlier and one mb stronger for landfall.

[eastcoastFL]

Long story short the spaghetti plots are 40-50 miles north than the raw data plots. See the 11am discussion about it. It's a few pages back.

So these plots are from this morning?

No they are just wrong period. Lol

From the 11am

Since the storm is likely near
the apex of its most northern point, it is worth noting the the
model trackers are noticeable north of the raw model fields. In
fact, the GFS tracker is about 45-50 n mi north of its raw fields.
The NHC track is very close to the previous forecast, which is
along the southern side of dynamical model trackers and is closest
to the GFS ensemble mean. Until the guidance stabilizes, it is
prudent not to make any significant changes.

Lol, I’m not sure who but I think one of us is confused. I know what it said at 11am but how do we know they are still wrong this evening?

[chris_fit]

18z Ukmet anyone?

Euro @ 18Z shifted W a bit

18Z UKMET is near Vero Beach, which is ~20 miles south of 12Z and about an hour earlier and one mb stronger for landfall.

Geez everything shifting South again. Gots a tarp on my roof from Ian. Stay away from west central Florida Nicole!

[eastcoastFL]

18Z Euro shifted slightly SW

https://i.postimg.cc/ZnqKYtbh/ecmwf-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh3-51.gif

Is that like North Palm Beach/Gardens?

[tronbunny]

I really do not like the idea that there will be any impact at all on SW Florida as they try to recover from Ian.

Euro trend:

https://i.postimg.cc/wMSKCS32/ecmwf-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh33-trend.gif

[SFLcane]

Euro trend:

https://i.postimg.cc/wMSKCS32/ecmwf-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh33-trend.gif

That’s my call PB landfall.

[NDG]

18Z Euro shifted slightly SW

https://i.postimg.cc/ZnqKYtbh/ecmwf-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh3-51.gif

Is that like North Palm Beach/Gardens?

12z & 18z both have exactly the same landfall, near Port St Lucie, if anything 18z Euro might be a couple of miles north of previous 12z.

[Blown Away]

18Z Euro shifted slightly SW

https://i.postimg.cc/ZnqKYtbh/ecmwf-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh3-51.gif

Is that like North Palm Beach/Gardens?

12z & 18z both have exactly the same landfall, near Port St Lucie, if anything 18z Euro might be a couple of miles north of previous 12z.

https://i.imgur.com/cPOK50s.png
https://i.imgur.com/kESXLy4.png

18z Euro better defined COC.

[gatorcane]

18Z Euro shifted slightly SW

https://i.postimg.cc/ZnqKYtbh/ecmwf-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh3-51.gif

Is that like North Palm Beach/Gardens?

12z & 18z both have exactly the same landfall, near Port St Lucie, if anything 18z Euro might be a couple of miles north of previous 12z.

https://i.imgur.com/cPOK50s.png
https://i.imgur.com/kESXLy4.png

Yes but the 18Z Euro turn WNW takes a bit longer than the 12Z, just off the Palm Beach coast. It looks like it gets closer to the Palm Beach County coastline.

[crimi481]

Looks hybrid - center within much larger center? Anomaly . Model confusion. I know I am lol

[Beachside]

So it looks like the NHC track in the 10:00 update is unchanged.

[sweetpea]

So it looks like the NHC track in the 10:00 update is unchanged.

It changed for Thursday a little bit, about 20 miles further west.

[eastcoastFL]

So it looks like the NHC track in the 10:00 update is unchanged.

Yup, no change. Still landfall around Ft. Pierce.