ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Nicole is reverting back to a sub-tropical system

What? Strongest winds are still near its LLC.

[toad strangler]

Nicole is reverting back to a sub-tropical system

This would be tremendously good news!

[GCANE]

Nicole is reverting back to a sub-tropical system

What? Strongest winds are still near its LLC.

https://i.imgur.com/cBiRLlT.png

Winds come later

[mantis83]

Nicole is reverting back to a sub-tropical system

This would be tremendously good news!

almost looks like a naked swirl again

[PavelGaborik10]

Nicole is reverting back to a sub-tropical system

What? Strongest winds are still near its LLC.

https://i.imgur.com/cBiRLlT.png

Well in that case it's just an exposed tropical mess.

[NDG]

Nicole is reverting back to a sub-tropical system

What? Strongest winds are still near its LLC.

https://i.imgur.com/cBiRLlT.png

Winds come later

Is D-min, nothing unusual, HWRF forecasted nicely, the same model that shows deep convection refiring after midnight.

[AutoPenalti]

Not sure any model predicted that PVS to linger for as long as it did. Looks like it peaked and likely to weaken from here. Convection should refire by tonight.

[GCANE]

I said this earlier.
UL WV imagery has more moisture moving in, south of Nicole.
This would likely weaken the PV streamer and Nicole may swing back to a tropical system.
It is right on the edge.

[Weatherboy1]

Hurricane Jeanne in 2004 was surrounded by dry air in a similar location (albeit different time of year). Managed to hold on to strength regardless … and made landfall in roughly the same location Nicole is aiming at.

[GCANE]

What? Strongest winds are still near its LLC.

https://i.imgur.com/cBiRLlT.png

Winds come later

Is D-min, nothing unusual, HWRF forecasted nicely, the same model that shows deep convection refiring after midnight.

That inflow of UL level moisture would do it.

[GCANE]

Here is a good image of the UL moisture coming in south of Nicole.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=g ... =undefined

[gatorcane]

Looks like it losing latitude fairly quickly:

[Blown Away]

Nicole is really diving… Hot tower firing near LLC…

[toad strangler]

I’m hoping that no organized convection re-fires. Let’s put her out to pasture and get on with fall and winter!

[GCANE]

Pressure up 2mb

[NDG]

Pressure up a couple of mb not surprisingly since convection has weakened around its LLC this evening.

[eastcoastFL]

It’s definitely diving to the SW now.

[GCANE]

No mention of eye characteristics on VDM

[aspen]

Nicole is reverting back to a sub-tropical system

Is it even possible for a system to flip between tropical and sub-tropical status multiple times during its life?

[eastcoastFL]

Pressure up a couple of mb not surprisingly since convection has weakened around its LLC this evening.

https://i.imgur.com/nfz8zVD.png

Pressure is still a lot more impressive than the presentation on IR. Its a reminder that IR can be deceiving. Won’t take much to ramp back up if convection increases.