ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

I’m hoping that no organized convection re-fires. Let’s put her out to pasture and get on with fall and winter!

I’ll second that.

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF had a sloppy mess of a storm at this point with a pressure of 988mb. It’s really impressive how it can do that. Needless to say it shows it wrapping up and pressure down to 975 24 hours from now.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Nicole is reverting back to a sub-tropical system

Is it even possible for a system to flip between tropical and sub-tropical status multiple times during its life?

Yeah, I mean Paulette did it.

[Blown Away]

If you told me last night Nicole would look this good and be @985 mb I would have said very unlikely. Plenty of room to deepen before FL

[PavelGaborik10]

HWRF had a sloppy mess of a storm at this point with a pressure of 988mb. It’s really impressive how it can do that. Needless to say it shows it wrapping up and pressure down to 975 24 hours from now.

It's massive size helps with the pressure.

Could see this dip into the low 970's/high 960's at category 1 strength under the right setup.

[GCANE]

Picking some stronger convection near the CoC

[GCANE]

Recon heading straight for the convection

[Blown Away]

12H 09/0600Z 27.0N 75.2W 60 KT 70 MPH

2am position per 4pm advisory.

It appears at this speed Nicole will pass ahead of time. Recent blowup of convection over LLC. Track S shift maybe?

[MetroMike]

We have a hot tower firing on the Western semi-circle now, with some more lightning.

[GCANE]

We have a hot tower firing on the Western semi-circle now.

Watching to see if lightning starts to fire.
Would indicate it is out of the downdraft of the PV streamer

[crimi481]

A large powerful Hybrid wind machine. I see a smaller center - surrounded by a much larger center
An anomaly - ever changing. Keeping models dancing.

[marciacubed]

Wind picking up here in south Palm Beach County. More wind than we got with Ian even during the band that contained the tornados.

[MetroMike]

We have a hot tower firing on the Western semi-circle now.

Watching to see if lightning starts to fire.
Would indicate it is out of the downdraft of the PV streamer

Yes just edited with lightning now firing

[crimi481]

Dry cooler breezes here in SW Fl - does not feel like tropical air.

[GCANE]

Not much rain rate with that convection

[GCANE]

Some lightning now NE of the CoC. Pretty close.
Looks like slowly getting away from the PV streamer.
Looks like may get back to tropical.

[Coolcruiseman]

From 10 pm discussion:

"Nicole will be moving over fairly warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees Celsius during the next day or so. However, the SHIPS guidanceindicates that the vertical shear will be 25 kt or higher, withlow-to mid-tropospheric humidities on the order of 50 percent,during the next 24 hours. Nicole is likely to become a hurricane soon but, given the marginal dynamic and thermodynamic environment, significant strengthening seems unlikely. "

[eastcoastFL]

From 10 pm discussion:

"Nicole will be moving over fairly warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees Celsius during the next day or so. However, the SHIPS guidanceindicates that the vertical shear will be 25 kt or higher, withlow-to mid-tropospheric humidities on the order of 50 percent,during the next 24 hours. Nicole is likely to become a hurricane soon but, given the marginal dynamic and thermodynamic environment, significant strengthening seems unlikely. "

Well that’s some potentially good news. I’ll take it.

[DESTRUCTION5]

She's creeping in on cane status.. 62kt surface winds
..72 mph.

[eastcoastFL]

No change in track at 10pm. Still Ft. Pierce.

Center fixes indicate that the cyclone is moving
west-southwestward, or about 250/9 kt The track forecast
philosophy is basically the same as in the previous advisory
package. Nicole should move west-southwestward to westward, on the
south side of an eastward-moving high pressure area, for the next 24
hours. Thereafter, the system should turn northwestward and then
northward along the western side of the high. In 3-5 days, Nicole
is likely to accelerate northeastward over the eastern United
States, to the east of a large mid-level trough. The track model
guidance has not changed significantly, nor has the official
forecast. This is near the southern edge of the guidance suite for
the next 1-2 days, and roughly in the middle of the guidance
thereafter.