ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Okay, big hot tower flare up over Nicole as of 5am. Let’s see what happens

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/BvjzwRfp/goes16-ir-17-L-202211090902.gif [/url]

Indeed! Was about to post this. Similar theme let’s hope not right before land boom.

[NDG]

Okay, big hot tower flare up over Nicole as of 5am. Let’s see what happens

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/BvjzwRfp/goes16-ir-17-L-202211090902.gif [/url]

Indeed! Was about to post this. Similar theme let’s hope not right before land boom.

https://i.postimg.cc/zBCyWDbc/0226-E663-1-A0-B-47-C8-AAE4-89-B1713-B2085.gif

Is starting to change its heading to more of a due west during the past couple of hours as seen on radar as well.

[Steve H.]

Yes, it seems like it at the bottom of the ridge. Should start a westward track now

[AdamFirst]

Just woke up to see the flare on satellite. Probably a hurricane now based off of that.

Got a bad feeling about this one. It's coming right at me, but we are prepared. Fully shuttered up and ready.

[SFLcane]

When is recon do back in?

[NDG]

Brian McNoldy's radar loop link:

http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics ... ahamas.gif

[NDG]

When is recon do back in?

NOAA recon's first pass this morning as I type this, AF recon a few minutes away.
Looks like pressure has started to drop again since last recon flight last night.

URNT15 KWBC 091040
NOAA3 1217A NICOLE HDOB 08 20221109
103030 2656N 07639W 6954 03085 9958 +089 +089 043047 048 039 004 01
103100 2656N 07637W 6955 03079 9945 +096 +085 043048 050 040 001 00
103130 2656N 07635W 6954 03078 9945 +094 +071 038050 051 040 001 00
103200 2655N 07633W 6954 03077 9942 +095 +075 040051 052 039 001 03
103230 2654N 07631W 6954 03075 9942 +092 +081 039049 050 040 000 00
103300 2654N 07629W 6953 03072 9936 +093 +099 038050 053 040 000 01
103330 2653N 07627W 6957 03064 9931 +093 +099 034055 058 041 003 01
103400 2652N 07625W 6953 03063 9925 +094 +095 033056 058 044 000 01
103430 2652N 07623W 6953 03061 9912 +101 +091 034054 055 046 000 00
103500 2651N 07621W 6955 03054 9905 +102 +100 035052 055 046 000 00
103530 2650N 07619W 6954 03050 9899 +105 +085 033050 052 051 000 00
103600 2650N 07617W 6953 03045 9889 +107 +091 033049 050 051 001 00
103630 2649N 07615W 6954 03038 9874 +113 +096 033051 053 052 002 00
103700 2648N 07613W 6943 03045 9869 +111 +117 038047 052 056 005 01
103730 2648N 07611W 6951 03028 9857 +114 +123 044048 051 055 008 01
103800 2647N 07609W 6957 03016 9841 +121 +114 041051 052 055 006 00
103830 2646N 07607W 6956 03013 9825 +134 +097 040046 050 051 002 03
103900 2644N 07606W 6954 03011 9819 +135 +095 042038 046 040 000 00
103930 2643N 07604W 6952 03010 9818 +135 +075 045033 035 028 000 00
104000 2642N 07602W 6955 03005 9810 +141 +072 045025 031 021 000 00

[SFLcane]

Brian McNoldy's radar loop link:

http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics ... ahamas.gif

https://i.imgur.com/bUbWT7m.gif

Might have a fully closed eyewall later this morning.

[Blown Away]

Brian McNoldy's radar loop link:

http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics ... ahamas.gif

https://i.imgur.com/bUbWT7m.gif

Might have a fully closed eyewall later this morning.

Nothing STS about Nicole anymore.

[SFLcane]

When is recon do back in?

NOAA recon's first pass this morning as I type this, AF recon a few minutes away.
Looks like pressure has started to drop again since last recon flight last night.

URNT15 KWBC 091040



NOAA3 1217A NICOLE HDOB 08 20221109
103030 2656N 07639W 6954 03085 9958 +089 +089 043047 048 039 004 01
103100 2656N 07637W 6955 03079 9945 +096 +085 043048 050 040 001 00
103130 2656N 07635W 6954 03078 9945 +094 +071 038050 051 040 001 00
103200 2655N 07633W 6954 03077 9942 +095 +075 040051 052 039 001 03
103230 2654N 07631W 6954 03075 9942 +092 +081 039049 050 040 000 00
103300 2654N 07629W 6953 03072 9936 +093 +099 038050 053 040 000 01
103330 2653N 07627W 6957 03064 9931 +093 +099 034055 058 041 003 01
103400 2652N 07625W 6953 03063 9925 +094 +095 033056 058 044 000 01
103430 2652N 07623W 6953 03061 9912 +101 +091 034054 055 046 000 00
103500 2651N 07621W 6955 03054 9905 +102 +100 035052 055 046 000 00
103530 2650N 07619W 6954 03050 9899 +105 +085 033050 052 051 000 00
103600 2650N 07617W 6953 03045 9889 +107 +091 033049 050 051 001 00
103630 2649N 07615W 6954 03038 9874 +113 +096 033051 053 052 002 00
103700 2648N 07613W 6943 03045 9869 +111 +117 038047 052 056 005 01
103730 2648N 07611W 6951 03028 9857 +114 +123 044048 051 055 008 01
103800 2647N 07609W 6957 03016 9841 +121 +114 041051 052 055 006 00
103830 2646N 07607W 6956 03013 9825 +134 +097 040046 050 051 002 03
103900 2644N 07606W 6954 03011 9819 +135 +095 042038 046 040 000 00
103930 2643N 07604W 6952 03010 9818 +135 +075 045033 035 028 000 00
104000 2642N 07602W 6955 03005 9810 +141 +072 045025 031 021 000 00

981mb?

[SFLcane]

This is on the cusp of becoming a hurricane if not one right now and strengthening with almost a full day left over VERY warm waters.

[GCANE]

Eye drop
986mb
98% RH @ 850mb

Seems to be shaking off the PV streamer

[NDG]

Lowest extrap pressure, 979mb, found near 26.6N & 75.95W

104200 2636N 07556W 6953 03007 9795 +157 +045 248007 010 013 000 03

[SFLcane]

Lowest extrap pressure, 979mb, found near 26.6N & 75.95W

104200 2636N 07556W 6953 03007 9795 +157 +045 248007 010 013 000 03

Even lower.

[GCANE]

Eye drop
986mb
98% RH @ 850mb

Seems to be shaking off the PV streamer

Something is wrong with their instruments.
Extrap pressure measures 979.5 mb

[SFLcane]

This is a hurricane Folks no doubt it. Further strengthening up until landfall remains possible in my opinion.

[NDG]

Dropsonde measures 984mb, extrap was way off.
But CoC is only slightly tilted, should see intensification starting to happen this morning.

[SFLcane]

Dropsonde measures 984mb, extrap was way off.

https://i.imgur.com/vlzaOqP.png

Ok either way it’s on its way down. It’s a hurricane

[GCANE]

Starting to get a good poleward outflow channel from that UL Low at 20N 37W

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

[NDG]

Dropsonde measures 984mb, extrap was way off.

https://i.imgur.com/vlzaOqP.png

Ok either way it’s on its way down. It’s a hurricane

So far nothing close to hurricane force winds found by the NOAA plane but the NE quadrant hasn't been sampled yet.