ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Rotating towers with lightning.
Can't beat that.
I'm GCANE and I approve this message.
Can't beat that.
I'm GCANE and I approve this message.
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NDG wrote:AF recon finds slightly stronger flight level winds than NOAA recon but nothing close to hurricane force winds at the surface. Seems to be moving now almost due west.
URNT15 KNHC 091152
AF309 1117A NICOLE HDOB 23 20221109
114400 2634N 07605W 8425 01368 9857 +179 //// 149009 010 024 000 01
114430 2636N 07604W 8428 01366 9855 +178 //// 148013 015 024 000 01
114500 2637N 07602W 8428 01368 9853 +187 +179 141020 023 028 001 00
114530 2638N 07601W 8421 01375 9853 +190 +174 144026 028 029 000 00
114600 2639N 07600W 8429 01370 9858 +189 +172 142033 036 038 003 00
114630 2640N 07558W 8418 01383 9865 +182 +175 141040 042 047 001 00
114700 2642N 07557W 8428 01379 9871 +181 +176 143051 054 049 001 00
114730 2643N 07556W 8422 01387 9874 +186 +162 143054 055 049 001 00
114800 2644N 07554W 8429 01389 9885 +181 +164 142056 058 050 000 03
114830 2645N 07553W 8426 01397 9892 +181 +154 140056 058 049 000 00
114900 2646N 07552W 8421 01413 9903 +176 +155 141057 059 047 000 00
114930 2647N 07550W 8427 01410 9913 +166 //// 142053 056 046 004 01
115000 2649N 07549W 8429 01416 9920 +169 +167 140057 058 045 001 00
115030 2650N 07548W 8419 01430 9925 +170 +162 141056 057 045 001 00
115100 2651N 07547W 8435 01418 //// +147 //// 142056 057 044 002 01
115130 2652N 07545W 8422 01439 9943 +162 //// 139054 055 043 003 01
115200 2653N 07544W 8426 01438 9946 +164 //// 139055 055 043 001 01
115230 2654N 07543W 8428 01443 9950 +163 //// 139054 055 042 003 01
115300 2656N 07541W 8432 01442 //// +150 //// 137052 053 044 005 01
115330 2657N 07540W 8424 01452 9960 +161 //// 137053 053 044 004 01
$$
Nope as of the 7am update still WSW.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:NDG wrote:AF recon finds slightly stronger flight level winds than NOAA recon but nothing close to hurricane force winds at the surface. Seems to be moving now almost due west.
URNT15 KNHC 091152
AF309 1117A NICOLE HDOB 23 20221109
114400 2634N 07605W 8425 01368 9857 +179 //// 149009 010 024 000 01
114430 2636N 07604W 8428 01366 9855 +178 //// 148013 015 024 000 01
114500 2637N 07602W 8428 01368 9853 +187 +179 141020 023 028 001 00
114530 2638N 07601W 8421 01375 9853 +190 +174 144026 028 029 000 00
114600 2639N 07600W 8429 01370 9858 +189 +172 142033 036 038 003 00
114630 2640N 07558W 8418 01383 9865 +182 +175 141040 042 047 001 00
114700 2642N 07557W 8428 01379 9871 +181 +176 143051 054 049 001 00
114730 2643N 07556W 8422 01387 9874 +186 +162 143054 055 049 001 00
114800 2644N 07554W 8429 01389 9885 +181 +164 142056 058 050 000 03
114830 2645N 07553W 8426 01397 9892 +181 +154 140056 058 049 000 00
114900 2646N 07552W 8421 01413 9903 +176 +155 141057 059 047 000 00
114930 2647N 07550W 8427 01410 9913 +166 //// 142053 056 046 004 01
115000 2649N 07549W 8429 01416 9920 +169 +167 140057 058 045 001 00
115030 2650N 07548W 8419 01430 9925 +170 +162 141056 057 045 001 00
115100 2651N 07547W 8435 01418 //// +147 //// 142056 057 044 002 01
115130 2652N 07545W 8422 01439 9943 +162 //// 139054 055 043 003 01
115200 2653N 07544W 8426 01438 9946 +164 //// 139055 055 043 001 01
115230 2654N 07543W 8428 01443 9950 +163 //// 139054 055 042 003 01
115300 2656N 07541W 8432 01442 //// +150 //// 137052 053 044 005 01
115330 2657N 07540W 8424 01452 9960 +161 //// 137053 053 044 004 01
$$
Nope as of the 7am update still WSW.
The NHC averages out its heading over a 6 hr period, based on two fixes so far and earlier radar imagery it has been moving almost due west in the last 3 hrs or so.
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Rotating towers with lightning.
Can't beat that.
I'm GCANE and I approve this message.
Thanks for your running analysis the past few days. Really appreciate it!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The very low dewpoints inland over N FL have stayed in place during the night, models show the moisture envelope immediately around Nicole to move W along with it at least into the FL Peninsula.


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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
eastcoastFL wrote:GCANE wrote:Rotating towers with lightning.
Can't beat that.
I'm GCANE and I approve this message.
Thanks for your running analysis the past few days. Really appreciate it!
My pleasure
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NDG wrote:SFLcane wrote:NDG wrote:AF recon finds slightly stronger flight level winds than NOAA recon but nothing close to hurricane force winds at the surface. Seems to be moving now almost due west.
URNT15 KNHC 091152
AF309 1117A NICOLE HDOB 23 20221109
114400 2634N 07605W 8425 01368 9857 +179 //// 149009 010 024 000 01
114430 2636N 07604W 8428 01366 9855 +178 //// 148013 015 024 000 01
114500 2637N 07602W 8428 01368 9853 +187 +179 141020 023 028 001 00
114530 2638N 07601W 8421 01375 9853 +190 +174 144026 028 029 000 00
114600 2639N 07600W 8429 01370 9858 +189 +172 142033 036 038 003 00
114630 2640N 07558W 8418 01383 9865 +182 +175 141040 042 047 001 00
114700 2642N 07557W 8428 01379 9871 +181 +176 143051 054 049 001 00
114730 2643N 07556W 8422 01387 9874 +186 +162 143054 055 049 001 00
114800 2644N 07554W 8429 01389 9885 +181 +164 142056 058 050 000 03
114830 2645N 07553W 8426 01397 9892 +181 +154 140056 058 049 000 00
114900 2646N 07552W 8421 01413 9903 +176 +155 141057 059 047 000 00
114930 2647N 07550W 8427 01410 9913 +166 //// 142053 056 046 004 01
115000 2649N 07549W 8429 01416 9920 +169 +167 140057 058 045 001 00
115030 2650N 07548W 8419 01430 9925 +170 +162 141056 057 045 001 00
115100 2651N 07547W 8435 01418 //// +147 //// 142056 057 044 002 01
115130 2652N 07545W 8422 01439 9943 +162 //// 139054 055 043 003 01
115200 2653N 07544W 8426 01438 9946 +164 //// 139055 055 043 001 01
115230 2654N 07543W 8428 01443 9950 +163 //// 139054 055 042 003 01
115300 2656N 07541W 8432 01442 //// +150 //// 137052 053 044 005 01
115330 2657N 07540W 8424 01452 9960 +161 //// 137053 053 044 004 01
$$
Nope as of the 7am update still WSW.
The NHC averages out its heading over a 6 hr period, based on two fixes so far and earlier radar imagery it has been moving almost due west in the last 3 hrs or so.
The 7am disco also says the west turn begins today so you’re right, it may have begun. They’ll update heading when it averages out to an overall motion.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Just posted in the models thread a pic of the continued slip south of the consensus model which is now over WPB as of 06z.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Nichole is slowing down as it approaches warmer water. Wind shear forecast has dropped and the storm has more or less made an envelope of moist air around the core.
Almost like 2 storms in one, a large subtropical storm with a now fully tropical core.
I said earlier I expect Nichole to reach cat 2 strength and more confident now based on the above reasoning.
Edit to add.
It also appears the storm is starting to tap into the moist air over Cuba...if it can get "inflow" from that area, no reason why this can reach cat 2 strength
Almost like 2 storms in one, a large subtropical storm with a now fully tropical core.
I said earlier I expect Nichole to reach cat 2 strength and more confident now based on the above reasoning.
Edit to add.
It also appears the storm is starting to tap into the moist air over Cuba...if it can get "inflow" from that area, no reason why this can reach cat 2 strength
Last edited by Jr0d on Wed Nov 09, 2022 7:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
eastcoastFL wrote:Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/0jwFC0NV/goes16-vis-swir-17-L-202211091037.gif [/url]
What a huge storm.
Did you decide to shutter up? I’m on the fence this morning even with track over Hobe Sound.

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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Also looks like she’s reached the area where she’s expected to take on a more westerly heading.


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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
eastcoastFL wrote:I can not believe I still have work this morning in Jupiter. I sure hope they don’t close the draw bridges before I leave. The wind has been howling all night here in Palm City and I imagine it’s not going to get much better as the day goes on.
I'm at work in Stuart but we are shutting down at noon through tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Blown Away wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:https://postimg.cc/GTbXLYGD
https://i.postimg.cc/0jwFC0NV/goes16-vi ... 091037.gif
What a huge storm.
Did you decide to shutter up? I’m on the fence this morning even with track over Hobe Sound.

Lol, I’m sitting right next to you on that fence. There’s not a single shutter up on my street or neighborhood. Even with it basically coming in right underneath of us my local forecast has max gusts of around 60mph and 50 sustained so I think I’m probably skipping the shutters. What are you thinking as you sit on that fence?
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- eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
toad strangler wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:I can not believe I still have work this morning in Jupiter. I sure hope they don’t close the draw bridges before I leave. The wind has been howling all night here in Palm City and I imagine it’s not going to get much better as the day goes on.
I'm at work in Stuart but we are shutting down at noon through tomorrow.
I have to imagine we will be doing something similar. But I’m not excited about driving to Juno to come home in a few hours.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Those rotating, back-to-back towers indicates eyewall building underway.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Not sure how windy it will be in fort lauderdale. perhaps around 35 mph max sustained for a short period of time?
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It’s cool and dry here in Tallahassee as continental air is rotating south west of Nicole. If this air gets into the circulation, it will definitely stifle convection. This is a major contrast to the past few days that have been near record hot with high humidity.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Power going out and back on at work right now



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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Jr0d wrote:Nichole is slowing down as it approaches warmer water. Wind shear forecast has dropped and the storm has more or less made an envelope of moist air around the core.
Almost like 2 storms in one, a large subtropical storm with a now fully tropical core.
I said earlier I expect Nichole to reach cat 2 strength and more confident now based on the above reasoning.
Edit to add.
It also appears the storm is starting to tap into the moist air over Cuba...if it can get "inflow" from that area, no reason why this can reach cat 2 strength
Also the gradient feature…..
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