ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cane5]

It’s cool and dry here in Tallahassee as continental air is rotating south west of Nicole. If this air gets into the circulation, it will definitely stifle convection. This is a major contrast to the past few days that have been near record hot with high humidity.

It’s fairly cool down here in Miami.

[jhpigott]

Just posted in the models thread a pic of the continued slip south of the consensus model which is now over WPB as of 06z.

Just as a point of reference 26.6 N latitude (where Nicole is at now) is the same latitude of Lake Worth (which is slightly south of WPB)

[DESTRUCTION5]

Just posted in the models thread a pic of the continued slip south of the consensus model which is now over WPB as of 06z.

Just as a point of reference 26.6 N latitude (where Nicole is at now) is the same latitude of Lake Worth (which is slightly south of WPB)

Yea looks like a given she comes in around Pbc/Mc line. Treasure coast will feel the worst of what she has to offer. Hopefully just a decent breeze.

[jlauderdal]

It’s cool and dry here in Tallahassee as continental air is rotating south west of Nicole. If this air gets into the circulation, it will definitely stifle convection. This is a major contrast to the past few days that have been near record hot with high humidity.

It’s fairly cool down here in Miami.

I noticed the same thing in Fort Lauderdale, not feeling very tropical with the rain-cooled air.

[jhpigott]

Just posted in the models thread a pic of the continued slip south of the consensus model which is now over WPB as of 06z.

Just as a point of reference 26.6 N latitude (where Nicole is at now) is the same latitude of Lake Worth (which is slightly south of WPB)

Yea looks like a given she comes in around Pbc/Mc line. Treasure coast will feel the worst of what she has to offer. Hopefully just a decent breeze.

Looks that way. I'm here in Juno Beach/Jupiter. about 1.5 inland. We'll probably go thru the southern eyewall feature (if one exists) or close to the center/southern half of the eye. Just a guess - but I think it's reasonable to expect 40-50mph maybe gusting to 60mph here in my location??

[us89]

It’s cool and dry here in Tallahassee as continental air is rotating south west of Nicole. If this air gets into the circulation, it will definitely stifle convection. This is a major contrast to the past few days that have been near record hot with high humidity.

It’s fairly cool down here in Miami.

I noticed the same thing in Fort Lauderdale, not feeling very tropical with the rain-cooled air.

Not at all what’s going on up here in the panhandle though. Here, northeast flow between Nicole and the ridge brought in a back door cold front yesterday, with a dry continental airmass with dewpoints in the 30s right behind. That’s allowed us to cool into the 50s tonight. Looks like that airmass will stick around for today before the slug of tropical moisture surrounding Nicole pushes in overnight tonight. Models don’t really show much if any of it getting entrained into the circulation...

[Blown Away]

Deep reds brewing, wonder if a little Bahama Island land friction tightens Nicole up a little?

[AutoPenalti]

Unless she slows down, she’s about to run out of time.

[wxman57]

Given what recon is finding, I'd go with 50 kts vs. 55 kts. The pressure field is just too large to support hurricane-force winds. NHC had 60 kts on their last advisory, which is higher than any wind the plane has found. I bet they keep the winds 60 kts to keep the public on alert for the possibility of a hurricane. They never indicate weakening for a storm nearing land. If they did, then the public may relax and stop preparing. We don't deal with the public, so I'd set the winds at 50 kts, which is much more realistic.

[NDG]

Just posted in the models thread a pic of the continued slip south of the consensus model which is now over WPB as of 06z.

It was slightly north of WPB, new 12z run is over Fort Pierce.

[AutoPenalti]

TWC radio expects mostly sunny conditions by tomorrow. When is landfall exactly??

[GCANE]

Definitely pulling away from the PV streamer
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

Dropping shear ahead
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

Eyewall building clearly seen on VIS / IR Sat and Radar
NE of Marsh Harbor

[Sciencerocks]

[eastcoastFL]

TWC radio expects mostly sunny conditions by tomorrow. When is landfall exactly??

2am

[Poonwalker]

Nicole is insulated now and the only thing that will slow intensification is shear which could drive in some dry air from the SW. It’s entering waters around 80 Kj of OHC and will remain there until just prior to landfall. I doubt RI but a cat2 is on the table.

[GCANE]

Chugging straight west, last four drops, almost 3 hrs

[DESTRUCTION5]

What a perfect time for Bahamian radar to go down. Cool.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

[cane5]

For our storm experts can you explain this expanse of winds way out from the center of the storm. Personally I cannot recall winds this far out from the center and nothing at all on the south side. I think they go over 350 miles out ?

[NDG]

NOAA's latest dropsonde missed the center.