ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1041 Postby GCANE » Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:24 am

CAPE up to 2000 in the Gulf Stream
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1042 Postby boca » Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:27 am

jlauderdal wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Eyewall should close off in a few hours.

https://i.postimg.cc/PJBXYh57/eye.gif

Coming right at us with no protection on the house, in modeling we trust :D

If any part of that eyewall affects my house, my marriage is over because I said it was going north of here and this storm will cost me more than my house being leveled in a 5 :D


Don’t worry your marriage and house will be fine it’s supposed to turn WNW later today.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1043 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:29 am

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1044 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:30 am

GCANE wrote:CAPE up to 2000 in the Gulf Stream

its doing good work, plenty of convection streaming into the SE coast...moderate to heavy intensity, typical tropical setup
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1045 Postby Teban54 » Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:31 am

Don't know if the winds are up there yet, but it surely looks like a hurricane now.
Image
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1046 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:35 am

boca wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Eyewall should close off in a few hours.

https://i.postimg.cc/PJBXYh57/eye.gif

Coming right at us with no protection on the house, in modeling we trust :D

If any part of that eyewall affects my house, my marriage is over because I said it was going north of here and this storm will cost me more than my house being leveled in a 5 :D


Don’t worry your marriage and house will be fine it’s supposed to turn WNW later today.

Actually it should be moving W today and WNW overnight.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1047 Postby MetroMike » Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:40 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
boca wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:Coming right at us with no protection on the house, in modeling we trust :D

If any part of that eyewall affects my house, my marriage is over because I said it was going north of here and this storm will cost me more than my house being leveled in a 5 :D


Don’t worry your marriage and house will be fine it’s supposed to turn WNW later today.

Actually it should be moving W today and WNW overnight.




It IS moving west now as per latest avdvisory pkg.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1048 Postby GCANE » Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:46 am

Definitely sucking heat out of the ocean now.
Nice negative temp anomaly in the core's boundary layer

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 6_tano.gif

4 hrs in the Gulf Stream on deck
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1049 Postby Cat5James » Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:47 am

MetroMike wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:
boca wrote:
Don’t worry your marriage and house will be fine it’s supposed to turn WNW later today.

Actually it should be moving W today and WNW overnight.


It IS moving west now as per latest avdvisory pkg.


265 is just south of west
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1050 Postby stayawaynow » Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:48 am

jlauderdal wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Eyewall should close off in a few hours.

https://i.postimg.cc/PJBXYh57/eye.gif

Coming right at us with no protection on the house, in modeling we trust :D

If any part of that eyewall affects my house, my marriage is over because I said it was going north of here and this storm will cost me more than my house being leveled in a 5 :D


Maybe starting up the generator will win some brownie points.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1051 Postby NDG » Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:49 am

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1052 Postby aspen » Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:51 am

Multiple unflagged 65+ kt SFMR readings in the NW quadrant. We might have Hurricane Nicole now.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1053 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:51 am

Looks like we have SFMR of 65kt and FL of 70kt. FL winds are a little too low, and SFMR is probably unreliable due to land proximity, so it’s probably not quite enough to get cat1 yet
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1054 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:52 am

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1055 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:54 am

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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1056 Postby Poonwalker » Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:55 am

Image

There has been a stream of dry air coming in from the gulf affecting Nicole from maintaining and building her south and east eyewall. It looks like that stream has now been cut off, will probably take about 6-8 hrs before the dry air mixes out completely on her south side.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1057 Postby Blown Away » Wed Nov 09, 2022 11:57 am

Image

Nicole ranks up there as one of the most impressive TS presentations on satellite I’ve seen…
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1058 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:04 pm

Flight level winds of 70 knots and SFMR of 68 knots supports a hurricane upgrade, IMHO.
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Re: ATL: NICOLE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1060 Postby AutoPenalti » Wed Nov 09, 2022 12:16 pm

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged


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