ATL: NICOLE - Models

[chris_fit]

06Z EURO has Nicole lunging north in the very short term, a decent ways north of Great Abaco Island - We'll see if this happens. For that to verify, she would have to start heading at 300 degrees, like, now.

[jlauderdal]

06Z EURO has Nicole lunging north in the very short term, a decent ways north of Great Abaco Island - We'll see if this happens. For that to verify, she would have to start heading at 300 degrees, like, now.

https://i.imgur.com/Ra85DL6.png

no sign that 300 is in the cards anytime soon

[chris_fit]

12Z ICON Slightly N of previous run.

[Beachside]

06Z EURO has Nicole lunging north in the very short term, a decent ways north of Great Abaco Island - We'll see if this happens. For that to verify, she would have to start heading at 300 degrees, like, now.

https://i.imgur.com/Ra85DL6.png

The NHC puts the motion at 270, but if you look at their interactive cone map the track line is at like 280/290

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z GFS landfall in southern Martin in 12-14 hrs.

Water is currently piling up here with the ocean pouring onto the barrier island.

[NDG]

Big shift to the north by the 12z Euro!!
It also delays landfall to 4 AM.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro.

[fsucory08]

Big shift to the north by the 12z Euro!!
It also delays landfall to 4 AM.

https://i.imgur.com/t3JT8Bm.png

Not sure how I reconcile that EURO run with this track composition.

[NDG]

Big shift to the north by the 12z Euro!!
It also delays landfall to 4 AM.

https://i.imgur.com/t3JT8Bm.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/17L_tracks_latest.png

Not sure how I reconcile that EURO run with this track composition.

That's the old 12z run, the new 18z early tropical model runs should come out in half hour or so, they will probably shift north as well, we will see.

[LarryWx]

Similar to the 12Z Euro, 12Z UKMET went 30 miles north to Melbourne! Why so far north? Because it moves NW from 11PM to a 4AM EST landfall, which is a later landfall than the ~midnight-1AM landfalls of recent runs.

Last 4 runs UKMET:

18Z Vero
0Z Ft. Pierce
6Z Vero
12Z Melbourne


12Z HMON is also way up near Melbourne, similar to its three prior runs back to yesterday's 18Z.

[fsucory08]

Curious to see what the GFS does. However, I noticed on the euro it has Nicole turning WNW now and moving that way for the next 6 hours. I don't see that yet

[Beachside]

Big shift to the north by the 12z Euro!!
It also delays landfall to 4 AM.

https://i.imgur.com/t3JT8Bm.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/17L_tracks_latest.png

Not sure how I reconcile that EURO run with this track composition.

I guess we will see, but from the 1:00 update, movement is still 265 or slightly south of west. All the models I'm seeing show movement slightly north of west.

Waiting to see where it hits Grand Bahama in relation to the forecast track.

[fsucory08]

Big shift to the north by the 12z Euro!!
It also delays landfall to 4 AM.

https://i.imgur.com/t3JT8Bm.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/17L_tracks_latest.png

Not sure how I reconcile that EURO run with this track composition.

I guess we will see, but from the 1:00 update, movement is still 265 or slightly south of west. All the models I'm seeing show movement slightly north of west.

Waiting to see where it hits Grand Bahama in relation to the forecast track.

That's what I'm saying as well. Euro and the new UK have Nicole a good deal north of the current forecast position in just a few hours. I haven't seen any northern component yet.

[MetroMike]

Big shift to the north by the 12z Euro!!
It also delays landfall to 4 AM.

https://i.imgur.com/t3JT8Bm.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/17L_tracks_latest.png

Not sure how I reconcile that EURO run with this track composition.

I guess we will see, but from the 1:00 update, movement is still 265 or slightly south of west. All the models I'm seeing show movement slightly north of west.

Waiting to see where it hits Grand Bahama in relation to the forecast track.

Instead of looking at models for actual heading look at satillite or radar, real time

[Beachside]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/17L_tracks_latest.png

Not sure how I reconcile that EURO run with this track composition.

I guess we will see, but from the 1:00 update, movement is still 265 or slightly south of west. All the models I'm seeing show movement slightly north of west.

Waiting to see where it hits Grand Bahama in relation to the forecast track.

Instead of looking at models for actual heading look at satillite or radar, real time

I'm looking at what the NHC is telling me. At the 1:00 update they said motion is 265.

[cycloneye]

More north from the spaghetti models at 18z.

[LarryWx]

Summary of 12Z runs at FL landfall south to north for documentation purposes:

GFS, HWRF: Stuart
ICON, CMC: Vero Beach
HAFS: Sebastian
Euro: just south of Melbourne
UKMET, HMON, NAM: Melbourne

Stuart to Melbourne is 65 miles straight line

[NDG]

Slight shift to the right by the 18z TVCN.

[Nuno]

Slight shift to the right by the 18z TVCN.

https://i.imgur.com/3A6VvXl.gif

I find this sudden sharp angle really hard to believe given that the NHC has forecasted this the last 24 hours, and it keeps moving south of due west. Gonna have to kick NW real soon to verify.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Slight shift to the right by the 18z TVCN.

https://i.imgur.com/3A6VvXl.gif

Better start heading wnw asap to verify there.