ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

This and 10 other structures in the town are likely to get undermined.

These twin condos are 19 stories tall, and has a decent shot to collapse tonight.


 https://twitter.com/clairemetzwesh/status/1590444546533777408

[NDG]

WESH and WFTV (Orlando stations) “in house” models showing landfall closer to Brevard. It’s worth noting their models sniffed out Ian’s progress before the models even with the track across the state south of what was forecasted.

I doubt any TV station is running "in-house" models. With a storm that has such a large area of TS winds, the exact landfall point is less important. Any hurricane force winds may cover only a few square miles out over the water. Expect some strong tropical storm-force winds north of where the center reaches the coast. Beyond then, all that cool, dry air over Florida now will be flowing into Nicole, knocking its core down fairly quickly. Not a big rain producer. I see the latest EC forecasting only 2-3 inches across the eastern half of the Peninsula. This is no Ian. It'll be all gone by Friday afternoon. So ends the season (I hope).

So are you saying that the "cool dry air" will be knocking its core down at landfall? No hurricane force winds at landfall along the coast?

[Hoops]

WESH and WFTV (Orlando stations) “in house” models showing landfall closer to Brevard. It’s worth noting their models sniffed out Ian’s progress before the models even with the track across the state south of what was forecasted.

I doubt any TV station is running "in-house" models. With a storm that has such a large area of TS winds, the exact landfall point is less important. Any hurricane force winds may cover only a few square miles out over the water. Expect some strong tropical storm-force winds north of where the center reaches the coast. Beyond then, all that cool, dry air over Florida now will be flowing into Nicole, knocking its core down fairly quickly. Not a big rain producer. I see the latest EC forecasting only 2-3 inches across the eastern half of the Peninsula. This is no Ian. It'll be all gone by Friday afternoon. So ends the season (I hope).

They have been. They always do. They even said “this is our in-house model” they’ve been showing it the last few days. Like I said it was great in Ian, it was great in Irma which showed pretty much exactly what it did days before. I understand what you’re saying but they are using them.

FWIW, the WFTV in-house model is an IBM one

[Weatherboy1]

Eyewall closing in on Palm Beach County. Turn should happen soon right?

If you look at the center of the eye on radar, it appears to be almost due East of Delray/Boca area. Still moving due west as well. So either she is going to have to A) start turning WNW almost immediately or B) turn very sharply WNW then NW to hit some of the points laid out by the more northerly models

[CronkPSU]

 https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1590460113047138304

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1590461882707869696

[Jr0d]

Yeah, a TV station would need to hire model programmers and developers, and buy supercomputer processing time. Not likely in any station's budget. I wonder which model they're using? GFS? Euro data can be VERY expensive (6 figures).

Not sure what school their Met's went to, but lets say one are more went to FSU, they could be using their model claiming it as "in house"

[MetroMike]

Right now it appears Nicole is being eaten by dry air or turning sub.

[Jr0d]

Right now it appears Nicole is being eaten by dry air or turning sub.

This was again picked up by the models. Most, except the HWRF have it filling back in before landfall in Florida. The HWRF shows Nichole having a huge eye feature at landfall.

[tropicwatch]

Right now it appears Nicole is being eaten by dry air or turning sub.

This was again picked up by the models. Most, except the HWRF have it filling back in before landfall in Florida. The HWRF shows Nichole having a huge eye feature at landfall.

Looking like the eye is starting the expansion now.

[Jr0d]

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1590461882707869696?s=20&t=0y-GM9X5nwGZq5f9kcPOkw

Unfortunately it appears the NOAA mission has diverted and now aiding in a search and rescue mission.

This is based on the plane circling and area between Palm Beach and Grand Bahamas.

If anyone has a marine VHF in the Palm Beach area, they may be able to get more information from the Coast Guard's "PAN PAN" message.

[tropicwatch]

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1590461882707869696?s=20&t=0y-GM9X5nwGZq5f9kcPOkw

Unfortunately it appears the NOAA mission has diverted and now aiding in a search and rescue mission.

This is based on the plane circling and area between Palm Beach and Grand Bahamas.

If anyone has a marine VHF in the Palm Beach area, they may be able to get more information from the Coast Guard's "PAN PAN" message.

I'm not sure they would be involved in a search and rescue mission at 10,000 feet.

[derpbynature]

So curiosity got the better of me and I tweeted at Tom Terry (WFTV 9) asking about the in-house model. It's apparently one developed by IBM.

 https://twitter.com/TTerryWFTV/status/1590466224718323712




Maybe the GRAF?

https://www.ibm.com/weather/industries/ ... ustry/graf

[Hurricane Mike]

Evening video update on Nicole
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzNAuI8I-TY

[Stormlover1970]

Yeah, a TV station would need to hire model programmers and developers, and buy supercomputer processing time. Not likely in any station's budget. I wonder which model they're using? GFS? Euro data can be VERY expensive (6 figures).

Not sure what school their Met's went to, but lets say one are more went to FSU, they could be using their model claiming it as "in house"

Abc uses both in my area

[decgirl66]

Titusville, Brevard County here. Been windy off and on all day, a few rain bands. The air definitely has that "tropical" feel to it!

[MetroMike]

Currently there are 10,000 power outages in Florida as a whole.

[gatorcane]

Nicole’s eye is opening

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like a big dry slot got to the core. Hopefully that will limit any further intensification, but I wouldn't count on it. Besides there's not any difference in impacts between a 70mph TS and 75mph hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Pressure has dropped per recon.