ATL: NICOLE - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

Slight shift to the right by the 18z TVCN.

https://i.imgur.com/3A6VvXl.gif

Has to turn WNW/NW now

[LarryWx]

Slight shift to the right by the 18z TVCN.

https://i.imgur.com/3A6VvXl.gif

Better start heading wnw asap to verify there.

12Z UKMET is straight westerly til 4PM EST, when it has Nicole at the eastern end of Grand Bahama Island. Then it turns WNW from then through midnight. After that it turns NW til the 4AM landfall at Melbourne.

[fsucory08]

Slight shift to the right by the 18z TVCN.

https://i.imgur.com/3A6VvXl.gif

Better start heading wnw asap to verify there.

I was just looking at the steering maps: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... om=Z&time=

I don't see how Nicole starts WNW at least for a little while longer

[NDG]

Slight shift to the right by the 18z TVCN.

https://i.imgur.com/3A6VvXl.gif

I find this sudden sharp angle really hard to believe given that the NHC has forecasted this the last 24 hours, and it keeps moving south of due west. Gonna have to kick NW real soon to verify.

Keep in mind that those are lines drawn in between each forecasted point, it will not go on a straight line, it will be a gradual turn.

[fsucory08]

Here is the issue I have with the euro's run.

This is is the 12z forecast for Nicole at 18z:

This is the actual position:

The Euro has Nicole moving slower and causing it to turn further West, in my opinion

[LarryWx]

Slight shift to the right by the 18z TVCN.

https://i.imgur.com/3A6VvXl.gif

Better start heading wnw asap to verify there.

I was just looking at the steering maps: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... om=Z&time=

I don't see how Nicole starts WNW at least for a little while longer

As long as Nicole is near the eastern end of Grand Bahama Island at 4PM EDT, the 12Z UKMET would then be right on track. Only then does she turn from a W heading to a WNW heading and does that til midnight. NW doesn't start til midnight. Then goes to Melbourne at 4AM.

So, at 4PM, will she be near the E end of Grand Bahama Island?

[chris_fit]

Better start heading wnw asap to verify there.

I was just looking at the steering maps: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... om=Z&time=

I don't see how Nicole starts WNW at least for a little while longer

As long as Nicole is near the eastern end of Grand Bahama Island at 4PM EDT, the 12Z UKMET would then be right on track. Only then does she turn from a W heading to a WNW heading and does that til midnight. NW doesn't start til midnight. Then goes to Melbourne at 4AM.

So, at 4PM, will she be near the E end of Grand Bahama Island?

She's already been there...

[tolakram]

Someone said it above, let me remind people. THERE IS NO FORECAST LINE, only points with a straight line in between each. Since the movement of Nicole will be SW, W, then turning NW it will go well below one of the lines before making the turn and coming back. I feel like this is confusing a number of folks.

[LarryWx]

I was just looking at the steering maps: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... om=Z&time=

I don't see how Nicole starts WNW at least for a little while longer

As long as Nicole is near the eastern end of Grand Bahama Island at 4PM EDT, the 12Z UKMET would then be right on track. Only then does she turn from a W heading to a WNW heading and does that til midnight. NW doesn't start til midnight. Then goes to Melbourne at 4AM.

So, at 4PM, will she be near the E end of Grand Bahama Island?

She's already been there...

https://i.imgur.com/mFtC9SX.gif

If you look closely at your radar loop, the center is still a little east of Grand Bahama. The E tip of that island is not til 78W. I don't think she reached that far just yet. Maybe at the 4PM advisory?

[cane5]

One thing i’ve noticed are there are few classic feeder bands wrapped around the storm for being what is called such a big storm. Looks like a couple of ones right near the center.

[HurricaneBelle]

One thing i’ve noticed are there are few classic feeder bands wrapped around the storm for being what is called such a big storm. Looks like a couple of ones right near the center.

There aren't any of significance over Florida because of the dry air.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/drrickknabb/status/1590450827529003008

[LarryWx]

18Z ICON: landfall near Palm Bay in southern Brevard

[NDG]

18z GFS also shifted slightly north, near Vero Beach or just south of it.
Initialized well and at the right position that it currently is.

[caneman]

18z GFS also shifted slightly north, near Vero Beach or just south of it.
Initialized well and at the right position that it currently is.

https://i.imgur.com/zyWJjTM.png

Moving NW OR WNW after landfall?

[NDG]

18z GFS also shifted slightly north, near Vero Beach or just south of it.
Initialized well and at the right position that it currently is.

https://i.imgur.com/zyWJjTM.png

Moving NW OR WNW after landfall?

Closer to WNW.

[gatorcane]

HMON has it more west close to Palm Beach County before the turn. But I have to say it looks like a weird run:

[LarryWx]

18Z NAM hits Cape Canaveral, but it is too far east at the current stage followed by NW motion immediately. So, throw it out.

[cane5]

Slight shift to the right by the 18z TVCN.

https://i.imgur.com/3A6VvXl.gif

Has to turn WNW/NW now

Still due west..go figure

[LarryWx]

18Z UKMET: near Melbourne 3AM