WPAC: YAMANEKO - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

96W INVEST 221111 0000 19.9N 168.6E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

In the early runs, GFS wanted this to be a west tracker.

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 111200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 20N 169E NW SLOWLY.

[Hurricane2022]

Clearly a TD now.

[Hayabusa]

WTPQ50 ‎RJTD ‎111800
RSMC ‎TROPICAL ‎CYCLONE ‎ADVISORY
NAME ‎ ‎TD ‎
ANALYSIS
PSTN ‎ ‎111800UTC ‎20.8N ‎168.4E ‎POOR
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎07KT
PRES ‎ ‎1010HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎030KT
GUST ‎ ‎045KT
FORECAST
24HF ‎ ‎121800UTC ‎22.2N ‎164.9E ‎80NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎09KT
PRES ‎ ‎1006HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
48HF ‎ ‎131800UTC ‎23.8N ‎163.2E ‎130NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎06KT
PRES ‎ ‎1004HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
72HF ‎ ‎141800UTC ‎31.4N ‎167.0E ‎200NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NNE ‎21KT
PRES ‎ ‎996HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎040KT
GUST ‎ ‎060KT
96HF ‎ ‎151800UTC ‎42.0N ‎173.9E ‎280NM ‎70% ‎EXTRATROPICAL ‎LOW ‎=

ABPW10 PGTW 112030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/112030Z-120600ZNOV2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.1N 167.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 167.0E, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH
OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED EIR AND AN 111811Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS
DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WHEN JUXTAPOSED
AGAINST THE PREVIOUS 111337Z GMI PASS, WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED IN THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
FAVOR INVEST 96W WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED JUST TO THE
EAST AIDING IN OUTFLOW, WARM (27-29C) SST, AND WITHIN A POCKET OF LOW
(10-15KT) VWS. AUTOMATED AND MANUAL PHASE CLASSIFICATION WORKSHEETS
INDICATE 96W IS A TROPICAL SYSTEM AS THIS TIME. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS
SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO, AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THINGS ARE LOOKING UP 96W.
HOWEVER, NOW THAT IT HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO A DEFINED LLCC, IT HAS ONLY A
SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WHERE IT COULD STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR EVEN WEAK TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO
A SUBTROPICAL AND THEN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 120130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.3N 166.1E TO 24.7N 163.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 120000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.4N 165.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
20.4N 167.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 165.8E, APPROXIMATELY 86 NM
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
WIDESPREAD FAIRLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE
LLCC. AN 112315Z ASCAT METOP-B PARTIAL PASS UNCOVERS NOTABLE 25 KNOT
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND 10-15 KNOTS ALONG
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS INVEST 96W
HAS A BATTERY IN ITS BACK WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVIOUSLY
POSITIONED TO THE EAST, HAVING PLACED ITSELF OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM AND
FURTHER INCREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
A WARM 27-29C, VWS HAS REMAINED A STEADY 10-15 KNOTS, AND THERE HAS BEEN
A MARKED IMPROVEMENT AND STRENGTHENING IN THE 850MB VORTICITY SIGNATURES
DESPITE BEING SOMEWHAT ELONGATED. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW A SLOW BUT
STEADY INCREASE TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND DO A
SHARP RECURVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSING OF A TRANSIENT
RIDGE AND START THE TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL AND THEN EXTRATROPICAL
LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130130Z.//
NNNN

[Meow]

Now TS Yamaneko

Code: Select all

WTPQ50 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TS 2224 YAMANEKO (2224) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN  121200UTC 20.9N 165.4E FAIR
MOVE  W 06KT
PRES  1006HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT
30KT  120NM EAST 60NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF  131200UTC 22.9N 164.6E 65NM 70%
MOVE  NNW SLOWLY
PRES  1002HPA
MXWD  040KT
GUST  060KT
48HF  141200UTC 28.4N 165.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE  N 14KT
PRES  1000HPA
MXWD  040KT
GUST  060KT
72HF  151200UTC 39.6N 172.5E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =