Texas Fall 2022

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1221 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 16, 2022 11:21 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Time to head up north to make some improvements to my cold air wall...


You been messing with the GEFS code?!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022111606/gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_12.png


Would that not reload our Source Region for more cold air maybe around Christmas?

:froze:


Nooo! Not on Christmas, that is when I must be in Missouri to see my Great-Grandparents! :cold: :spam: :lol:

And I believe so, I don't remember which MJO phases are the ones that load in the cold and which ones launch it.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1222 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Nov 16, 2022 6:27 pm

A week late with all the cold air gone but could be some Thanksgiving night fireworks.

Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1223 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Nov 16, 2022 6:30 pm

Cold pattern reloading for Santa?
:spam:

 https://twitter.com/eulermatthew4/status/1592870192064778240


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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1224 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 16, 2022 6:35 pm

bubba hotep wrote:A week late with all the cold air gone but could be some Thanksgiving night fireworks.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022111618/gfs_z500_vort_us_34.png


That is what my Local TV met has been thinking
Image
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2022-11-16-5.28.04-PM.png
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1225 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 16, 2022 6:35 pm


That is what it looks like, the CFS has been showing an active Mid to Late December for a while now.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1226 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Nov 16, 2022 7:42 pm



What was Nov '83 like?
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1227 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 16, 2022 7:57 pm

bubba hotep wrote:


What was Nov '83 like?

The Green Line is November and the Blue Line is December, found an archive for the MJO.
Image
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/198310.phase.90days.gif

Same color setup for 1989 as a reference
Image
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/198910.phase.90days.gif

Comparison to November 2022 latest (11/16/2022) MJO Forecast
Image
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/Current-MJO-forecast.gif
Last edited by Iceresistance on Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1228 Postby HockeyTx82 » Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:01 pm

bubba hotep wrote:A week late with all the cold air gone but could be some Thanksgiving night fireworks.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022111618/gfs_z500_vort_us_34.png


Are you saying severe weather?
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1229 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:03 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:A week late with all the cold air gone but could be some Thanksgiving night fireworks.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022111618/gfs_z500_vort_us_34.png


Are you saying severe weather?

It could, but this is 8-10 days out.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1230 Postby TropicalTundra » Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:42 pm

Returns show that there's still some light precip bands out in West TX that'll probably change over to frozen precip as temps slowly fall. Folks around the Abilene area might see a flake or two.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1231 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 16, 2022 10:13 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:A week late with all the cold air gone but could be some Thanksgiving night fireworks.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2022111618/gfs_z500_vort_us_34.png


Are you saying severe weather?


Not sure about here but James Spann is talking about it already for east of here I noticed. There's definitely some sort of storm
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1232 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Nov 17, 2022 4:48 am

Iceresistance wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:


What was Nov '83 like?

The Green Line is November and the Blue Line is December, found an archive for the MJO.
https://s4.gifyu.com/ima%20ges/198310.phase.90days.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/ima%20%20ges/198310.phase.90days.gif

Same color setup for 1989 as a reference
https://s1.gifyu.com/imag%20es/198910.phase.90days.gif
https://s1.gifyu.com/images%20/198910.phase.90days.gif

Comparison to November 2022 latest (11/16/2022) MJO Forecast
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/Current-MJO-fore%20cast.gif
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/Current-MJO-forec%20ast.gif


Those are shockingly similar, and we have the potential to be similar to this as well.... Hmmmm

So far, were tracking closely to 2000. Dec 2000 was a a great month for snow lovers
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1233 Postby rwfromkansas » Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:18 am

Dec. 2000 was epic growing up in Kansas. The snow total wasn’t one of my best but a series of small storms added up to 9 inches on the ground at one point.

I just looked up the coop observer report for this small town and from Dec. 13 to the end of the month we at least had 2 inches of snow on the ground the entire time!

That never happened. Snow usually melted in a few days like here.

That’s what made it special. Guaranteed white Christmas.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1234 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 17, 2022 9:25 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
What was Nov '83 like?

The Green Line is November and the Blue Line is December, found an archive for the MJO.
https://s4.gifyu.com/ima%20ges/198310.phase.90days.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/ima%20%20ges/198310.phase.90days.gif

Same color setup for 1989 as a reference
https://s1.gifyu.com/imag%20es/198910.phase.90days.gif
https://s1.gifyu.com/images%20/198910.phase.90days.gif

Comparison to November 2022 latest (11/16/2022) MJO Forecast
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/Current-MJO-fore%20cast.gif
https://s1.gifyu.com/images/Current-MJO-forec%20ast.gif


Those are shockingly similar, and we have the potential to be similar to this as well.... Hmmmm

So far, were tracking closely to 2000. Dec 2000 was a great month for snow lovers

Right now, it appears that 2000 is not a good analog for the MJO, it was more active back then.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1235 Postby TropicalTundra » Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:13 pm

Supposedly some models suggest possibility of light flurries in N/NE OK tonight. By Friday afternoon cold front should arrive which could have some flurries (not really any accumulation) for N. TX. Saturday Morning is probably the biggest part of all this with a few snow showers most likely along I-20 and mixed/rain south and southeast.
Last edited by TropicalTundra on Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1236 Postby Ntxw » Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:24 pm

Not a lot of change in thinking. NTX snow is still a long shot up in the air. Looks a bit stormy for Thanksgiving. MJO passage will likely result in a mid December dump of cold, falling in line with the ~30 day return cycle.

If the AO cooperates we will have better chances and winter storms during that period.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1237 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:38 pm

Ntxw wrote:Not a lot of change in thinking. NTX snow is still a long shot up in the air. Looks a bit stormy for Thanksgiving. MJO passage will likely result in a mid December dump of cold, falling in line with the ~30 day return cycle.

If the AO cooperates we will have better chances and winter storms during that period.

The NAO is also turning Negative as well by Late November.

The MJO forecast is eerily similar to November-December 1983 and 1989, but I don't think we may get the magnitude of those two extreme cold blasts.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1238 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Nov 17, 2022 3:43 pm

The latest CPC predictions aren't looking quite as favorable for chilly rain/snow. Guess we'll be busting out the shorts and t-shirts for Christmas(?). :layout: :roll:

December
Image
Image
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1239 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Nov 17, 2022 3:54 pm

8 years ago we had a coating of snow on this date followed by teens the next morning.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1240 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Nov 17, 2022 5:10 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:The latest CPC predictions aren't looking quite as favorable for chilly rain/snow. Guess we'll be busting out the shorts and t-shirts for Christmas(?). :layout: :roll:

December
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_temp.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_prcp.gif

This is from a Typical La Nina pattern, this may age poorly.
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