Texas Fall 2022

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1261 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 18, 2022 10:50 am

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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1262 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri Nov 18, 2022 11:19 am

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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1263 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 18, 2022 11:28 am

MJO may have just gotten into Phase 5, the current forecast calls it to stall in Phase 7 in early December, this is similar to what the MJO did in November/December 1983
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1264 Postby Quixotic » Fri Nov 18, 2022 12:54 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:


What is he saying? Lots of points in there....


Not much. Some excellent years and some real garbage ones too.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1265 Postby Brent » Fri Nov 18, 2022 4:53 pm

34 degrees at 3pm in the afternoon :cold: this is about as cold as it gets before Thanksgiving
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1266 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 18, 2022 4:57 pm

I heard that someone reported 3/4 inch of snow near Chandler.
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1267 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 18, 2022 6:40 pm

NTX folks will have to wake up early in the morning for maybe mood flakes. It has been a great chilly week for November! About as good as you can ask for after enduring the brutal summer.

Regarding MJO it took us all of December last winter to make it through 6-7-8 phases then January and February flipped (more freezes at DFW than 2020-2021 despite the hot December). It won't take as that long this time. The EPO domain is vulnerable to big negative phases this year. AO/NAO will not be astronomically positive like last December.

EPO index is lagging some but -428, exceptionally low for November and beats out November 2014 for that value. Historically one of, if not the biggest -EPO dives for time of year.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1268 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 18, 2022 7:20 pm

Ntxw wrote:NTX folks will have to wake up early in the morning for maybe mood flakes. It has been a great chilly week for November! About as good as you can ask for after enduring the brutal summer.

Regarding MJO it took us all of December last winter to make it through 6-7-8 phases then January and February flipped (more freezes at DFW than 2020-2021 despite the hot December). It won't take as that long this time. The EPO domain is vulnerable to big negative phases this year. AO/NAO will not be astronomically positive like last December.

EPO index is lagging some but -428, exceptionally low for November and beats out November 2014 for that value. Historically one of, if not the biggest -EPO dives for time of year.


I'm watching the Teleconnections and the MJO like a hawk! It appears that it's all falling in line for a December 2000 Repeat, even though that a December 1983 or 1989 is possible, but that is unlikely.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1269 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Nov 18, 2022 7:28 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:NTX folks will have to wake up early in the morning for maybe mood flakes. It has been a great chilly week for November! About as good as you can ask for after enduring the brutal summer.

Regarding MJO it took us all of December last winter to make it through 6-7-8 phases then January and February flipped (more freezes at DFW than 2020-2021 despite the hot December). It won't take as that long this time. The EPO domain is vulnerable to big negative phases this year. AO/NAO will not be astronomically positive like last December.

EPO index is lagging some but -428, exceptionally low for November and beats out November 2014 for that value. Historically one of, if not the biggest -EPO dives for time of year.


I'm watching the Teleconnections and the MJO like a hawk! It appears that it's all falling in line for a December 2000 Repeat, even though that a December 1983 or 1989 is possible, but that is unlikely.


I don’t remember getting much of anything here in December of 2000 but I was a youngin then so I don’t exactly remember much from then.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1270 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 18, 2022 7:56 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:NTX folks will have to wake up early in the morning for maybe mood flakes. It has been a great chilly week for November! About as good as you can ask for after enduring the brutal summer.

Regarding MJO it took us all of December last winter to make it through 6-7-8 phases then January and February flipped (more freezes at DFW than 2020-2021 despite the hot December). It won't take as that long this time. The EPO domain is vulnerable to big negative phases this year. AO/NAO will not be astronomically positive like last December.

EPO index is lagging some but -428, exceptionally low for November and beats out November 2014 for that value. Historically one of, if not the biggest -EPO dives for time of year.


I'm watching the Teleconnections and the MJO like a hawk! It appears that it's all falling in line for a December 2000 Repeat, even though that a December 1983 or 1989 is possible, but that is unlikely.


I don’t remember getting much of anything here in December of 2000 but I was a youngin then so I don’t exactly remember much from then.

I wasn't even here in 2000, but one of the Pro Mets on a different forum said it was the 2nd coldest for Wichita, KS and the coldest for Tulsa, OK for December 2000.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1271 Postby TropicalTundra » Fri Nov 18, 2022 8:26 pm

Not looking forward to 30s and rain. Would look forward to snow even if it was brief. Keeping the fingers crossed.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1272 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Nov 18, 2022 8:54 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:Not looking forward to 30s and rain. Would look forward to snow even if it was brief. Keeping the fingers crossed.


Doesn’t bother me. We need the rain and plus it’s not like I’ll be outside in it.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1273 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Nov 18, 2022 9:15 pm

If one day, north Texas could get even a third of the snow upstate New York is getting right now, I would be so happy
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1274 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Nov 18, 2022 9:20 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:If one day, north Texas could get even a third of the snow upstate New York is getting right now, I would be so happy

You are right. Jist once I would like to see that here. The pictures and videos from Western New York are amazing to see. And to think they have another day or so of heavy snow. Feb 2010 is the closest we've seen in DFW.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1275 Postby TropicalTundra » Fri Nov 18, 2022 9:49 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:If one day, north Texas could get even a third of the snow upstate New York is getting right now, I would be so happy

You are right. Jist once I would like to see that here. The pictures and videos from Western New York are amazing to see. And to think they have another day or so of heavy snow. Feb 2010 is the closest we've seen in DFW.


Can't even imagine waking up and seeing snow completely covering your window... Would easily be super cool and somewhat scary at the same time especially before Thanksgiving. Lol :spam:
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1276 Postby Quixotic » Fri Nov 18, 2022 10:11 pm

Ntxw wrote:NTX folks will have to wake up early in the morning for maybe mood flakes. It has been a great chilly week for November! About as good as you can ask for after enduring the brutal summer.

Regarding MJO it took us all of December last winter to make it through 6-7-8 phases then January and February flipped (more freezes at DFW than 2020-2021 despite the hot December). It won't take as that long this time. The EPO domain is vulnerable to big negative phases this year. AO/NAO will not be astronomically positive like last December.

EPO index is lagging some but -428, exceptionally low for November and beats out November 2014 for that value. Historically one of, if not the biggest -EPO dives for time of year.


Yeah. You came up with the same winter as me for “when was the last cold November”.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1277 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 18, 2022 10:22 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:NTX folks will have to wake up early in the morning for maybe mood flakes. It has been a great chilly week for November! About as good as you can ask for after enduring the brutal summer.

Regarding MJO it took us all of December last winter to make it through 6-7-8 phases then January and February flipped (more freezes at DFW than 2020-2021 despite the hot December). It won't take as that long this time. The EPO domain is vulnerable to big negative phases this year. AO/NAO will not be astronomically positive like last December.

EPO index is lagging some but -428, exceptionally low for November and beats out November 2014 for that value. Historically one of, if not the biggest -EPO dives for time of year.


I'm watching the Teleconnections and the MJO like a hawk! It appears that it's all falling in line for a December 2000 Repeat, even though that a December 1983 or 1989 is possible, but that is unlikely.


I don’t remember getting much of anything here in December of 2000 but I was a youngin then so I don’t exactly remember much from then.


2000 wasn't anything frigid but for the I-20 and I-40 corridor it was persistent cold and a series of ice/snowstorms late in the month.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1278 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Nov 18, 2022 10:25 pm

WFAA radar showing returns just south of the Red River up towards Texas Snowmans area. Also some light returns west of Fort Worth.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1279 Postby Ntxw » Fri Nov 18, 2022 10:29 pm

Some short range hi-res models has at least some snow falling for spotty areas of NTX 2-5am.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022

#1280 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Nov 18, 2022 10:29 pm

What in the world? It's snowing outside again! This time, the flakes are absolutely tiny.

28°F
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!


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