WPAC: INVEST 90W

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4243
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

WPAC: INVEST 90W

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 22, 2022 8:13 pm

Well here it is, let's see if it does something
90W.INVEST

90W INVEST 221123 0000 7.8N 167.3E WPAC 15 0

Image
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Top
User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4243
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 22, 2022 8:26 pm

EPS 18Z
Image
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Top
User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3857
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:
Contact xtyphooncyclonex

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#3 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:37 am

GFS on and off with this system but they're back to showing a strong TS and typhoon which slams close to Davao City. CMC having a Rai repeat but weaker
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143858
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 23, 2022 5:27 am

The models have consensus of a strong ridge to the north that will move it west.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15827
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#5 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Nov 23, 2022 6:23 am

cycloneye wrote:The models have consensus of a strong ridge to the north that will move it west.

Yeah, has high potential because of this. We'll see.
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143858
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 23, 2022 7:58 am

12z Best Track:

WP, 90, 2022112312, , BEST, 0, 78N, 1624E, 15, 1010, DB
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143858
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 23, 2022 6:15 pm

Euro ensembles are bullish.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143858
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#8 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 24, 2022 8:20 am

Starting to gain convection. The GFS ensembles are also bullish.

Image

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1496
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#9 Postby Hurricane2022 » Thu Nov 24, 2022 9:24 am

cycloneye wrote:Starting to gain convection. The GFS ensembles are also bullish.

https://i.imgur.com/MpvPNpM.gif

https://i.imgur.com/y3buBQm.png

this track...
Reminds me of something specific that happened in 2012... :double:
0 likes   
Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

--------

Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
Top
User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4243
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#10 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:52 am

Hurricane2022 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Starting to gain convection. The GFS ensembles are also bullish.

https://i.imgur.com/MpvPNpM.gif

https://i.imgur.com/y3buBQm.png

this track...
Reminds me of something specific that happened in 2012... :double:

Bopha became a TS at 155.9E, while 90W is located as of 12Z at 157.0E.
1 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143858
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 24, 2022 12:00 pm

12z GFS with SuperTyphoon to Vietnam.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143858
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 24, 2022 9:15 pm

In the early stage to begin the organization proccess.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1496
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#13 Postby Hurricane2022 » Thu Nov 24, 2022 9:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:In the early stage to begin the organization proccess.

https://i.imgur.com/X5dfbzS.gif

Is it possible that we'll see something significant come of this, maybe something around 115 - 145 mph in the future?
0 likes   
Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

--------

Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
Top
User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3857
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:
Contact xtyphooncyclonex

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#14 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:38 pm

Ensembles are quite bullish on a Mindanao landfall. Can't say the same for the model runs themselves. GFS and CMC seem to barely develop this until reaching the WPS/SCS.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Top
User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4243
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#15 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 25, 2022 12:31 am

Operational models maybe underestimating this given what the ensembles say. Like Noru GFS in the long range was hyping it as an intense storm only to back off as it neared formation, and this one is more far away from landfall...
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Top
User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4243
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#16 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 25, 2022 2:53 am

EPS 00z, I count only two TS members just before landfall, still we must watch for an unexpected RI.
Image
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Top
User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3857
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:
Contact xtyphooncyclonex

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#17 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Nov 25, 2022 6:28 am

Reminds me a bit of Tembin in 2017. Models were bullish on a Philippine landfall but later on backed off. I don't know what's holding this back but I don't see enough consistency. At the same time, models have notoriously underestimated Rai and Noru. Seeing probably a tropical storm for now.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143858
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#18 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 25, 2022 11:25 am

Looks better but the low is to the NE of convection. 12z GFS has no development.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3711
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:
Contact mrbagyo

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#19 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Nov 25, 2022 1:35 pm

The projected track on ensembles are so south, it's entering Kate territory (passed way south of Palau)
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Hayabusa
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4243
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:05 pm

Re: WPAC: INVEST 90W

#20 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Nov 25, 2022 10:20 pm

18Z GFS(v16 presumably) is back to development...
Image
0 likes   
ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2022”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 57 guests