Yesterday in DFW was nice, today will be great! Gimme dat 78!
Then another nice warmup Friday for at least several days (if NWS is correct).
Texas Fall 2022
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
The upcoming strat PV continues to be weak and looking like the weakest it will be in December in recent memory. -AO is probably a lock. I know the waiting is tough (seems like November won't end :lol) but once these things mature I think we're looking at a memorable period coming. Not just the cold, but snow as well. It's been so long stretch since real blocking has occurred in the Arctic Basin and Canadian Archipelago.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Ntxw wrote:The upcoming strat PV continues to be weak and looking like the weakest it will be in December in recent memory. -AO is probably a lock. I know the waiting is tough (seems like November won't end :lol) but once these things mature I think we're looking at a memorable period coming. Not just the cold, but snow as well. It's been so long stretch since real blocking has occurred in the Arctic Basin and Canadian Archipelago.
It’s looking like December 7th is when our first decent front could arrive.
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Ntxw wrote:The upcoming strat PV continues to be weak and looking like the weakest it will be in December in recent memory. -AO is probably a lock. I know the waiting is tough (seems like November won't end) but once these things mature I think we're looking at a memorable period coming. Not just the cold, but snow as well. It's been so long stretch since real blocking has occurred in the Arctic Basin and Canadian Archipelago.
I found this on a different forum, insane -EPO on the CFS (Looks like it's the CEFS) for Mid to Late December, that is my target time for us to get nasty cold in December. This signal lasts through at least January.
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/CEFS-model.jpg
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Winter 2020-2021
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Nothing at all on the latest gfs. No Cold for Texas or Louisiana. Is it missing something? Looks very discouraging.
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
harp wrote:Nothing at all on the latest gfs. No Cold for Texas or Louisiana. Is it missing something? Looks very discouraging.
The MJO is slowing down and messing up the models.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
PDS TORNADO WATCH likely for Louisiana and Mississippi later today, oh boy. 
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
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HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Iceresistance wrote:PDS TORNADO WATCH likely for Louisiana and Mississippi later today, oh boy.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1978.html
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Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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starsfan65
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
slowing down?Iceresistance wrote:harp wrote:Nothing at all on the latest gfs. No Cold for Texas or Louisiana. Is it missing something? Looks very discouraging.
The MJO is slowing down and messing up the models.
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rwfromkansas
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
These pattern transitions usually take weeks and weeks. I'm not really worried unless it still shows no cold and it's Dec. 10 or so.
It isn't too surprising to have a period of relaxation.
I did see a picture of the cold front as it was going through Kansas. Pretty gnarly clouds with it.
It isn't too surprising to have a period of relaxation.
I did see a picture of the cold front as it was going through Kansas. Pretty gnarly clouds with it.
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
PDS Tornado Watch is up for Louisiana, SE Arkansas, and Mississippi. 95/90%!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
starsfan65 wrote:slowing down?Iceresistance wrote:harp wrote:Nothing at all on the latest gfs. No Cold for Texas or Louisiana. Is it missing something? Looks very discouraging.
The MJO is slowing down and messing up the models.
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/ensplume_small-1.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Iceresistance wrote:harp wrote:Nothing at all on the latest gfs. No Cold for Texas or Louisiana. Is it missing something? Looks very discouraging.
The MJO is slowing down and messing up the models.
Potentially a very shallow air mass. Models wont handle a shallow air mass well at all.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Brent
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
That warmup was short lived here... Already turning colder quickly
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#neversummer
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captainbarbossa19
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Well today is fun. There is a tornadic supercell about 30 minutes west of me right now. 
I am monitoring closely the radar.
I am monitoring closely the radar.
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
captainbarbossa19 wrote:Well today is fun. There is a tornadic supercell about 30 minutes west of me right now.
That storm produced a tornado near I-55 earlier today. There are MississippiDOT Cameras in Starkville, MS.
Here is the link to see them
https://www.mdottraffic.com/default.aspx?showMain=true
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
captainbarbossa19 wrote:Well today is fun. There is a tornadic supercell about 30 minutes west of me right now.
There is another one that has a confirmed tornado on the ground along MS-15 in Sherwood, MS
It looks like it might just miss Starkville to the north.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
A reminder that we’ll move over to the Texas Winter 2022-2023 (https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=122811&start=40) thread on December 1st.
In the meantime, how about this?
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1593280023716401155
In the meantime, how about this?
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1593280023716401155
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Texas Snowman wrote:A reminder that we’ll move over to the Texas Winter 2022-2023 (https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=122811&start=40) thread on December 1st.
In the meantime, how about this?
Unfortunately, that’s from almost 2 weeks ago.
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1593280023716401155?s=46&t=_o4-w-xKfga9ILh5eaPTtQ
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Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
harp wrote:Texas Snowman wrote:A reminder that we’ll move over to the Texas Winter 2022-2023 (https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=122811&start=40) thread on December 1st.
In the meantime, how about this?
Unfortunately, that’s from almost 2 weeks ago.
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1593280023716401155?s=46&t=_o4-w-xKfga9ILh5eaPTtQ
True, which is why I should have added this from Eric Webb from earlier today…
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1597692778644852736
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