2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Category5Kaiju]

So it's being talked about in the model thread, but apparently the GFS is hellbent on having some hurricane form during the extreme end of November going into December, with some runs making it quite strong. Of course there's a lot of reason to believe that this won't happen, but this got me wondering...why does the Atlantic have absolutely no known major strength storms (even in the first week of December) while November has a history of having such kinds of systems? Isn't the Caribbean still warm enough in December to support a major hurricane? Why exactly is this exceedingly rare, if not unheard of?

[tolakram]

So it's being talked about in the model thread, but apparently the GFS is hellbent on having some hurricane form during the extreme end of November going into December, with some runs making it quite strong. Of course there's a lot of reason to believe that this won't happen, but this got me wondering...why does the Atlantic have absolutely no known major strength storms (even in the first week of December) while November has a history of having such kinds of systems? Isn't the Caribbean still warm enough in December to support a major hurricane? Why exactly is this exceedingly rare, if not unheard of?

Wind shear for the most part.

[AJC3]

So it's being talked about in the model thread, but apparently the GFS is hellbent on having some hurricane form during the extreme end of November going into December, with some runs making it quite strong. Of course there's a lot of reason to believe that this won't happen, but this got me wondering...why does the Atlantic have absolutely no known major strength storms (even in the first week of December) while November has a history of having such kinds of systems? Isn't the Caribbean still warm enough in December to support a major hurricane? Why exactly is this exceedingly rare, if not unheard of?

Wind shear for the most part.

Yep. Plus amplitude and frequency of AEW's that enter the Caribbean drops off the chart. I suspect that the few that have formed in the Caribbean from November onward have done so from in situ sources of vorticity. Maybe Larry could research the TC post-storm reports to see what they mention as the source for each one.

[Category5Kaiju]

It's honestly quite stunning that there's a legit possibility that we see a bona fide TC in December, assuming some of the models pan out. That has not happened in a while, but if any bizarre season would have the capacity to produce that kind of anomaly, then 2022 very well fits.

[Iceresistance]

WebberWeather has spotted something
 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1594742872204447745

[ChrisH-UK]

WebberWeather has spotted something
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1594742872204447745?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

The ECMWF have a weak depression further south and CMC has nothing. The GFS been GFS has a 110 mph typhoon...

[dexterlabio]

^There is quite a noise in the ECMWF ensembles though so I think it bears watching.

[Category5Kaiju]

Now that the 2022 season is wrapping up, I have to admit that this was one if not the most bizarre season I've ever tracked (I started in 2017 so not a big sample size, but still ). Started off as a nothing burger that caused people to believe that it would flop worse than 2013, only for the season to spawn Fiona and Ian, the latter which will be especially remembered for a long time and that will join an infamous list of Florida hurricanes that hit populated regions of the state head-on with full fury.

This season imho has really underscored three things.

1. 2013 is probably never (maybe ever ) going to be a reasonable analog comparison season. That season was a black swan event much like 2005, and comparing any given year with that year (especially a solid La Nina year) is likely going to yield some results that age like milk under the Florida sun. I'm honestly never going to trust any 2013 comparisons mentioned during July or August ever again.

2. Mid-level dry air and wave-breaking SERIOUSLY need to be considered more in future hurricane season forecasts. The high-end predictions for this year failed to come to fruition because of these factors. It may take time to develop reliable forecasting tools regarding these, but considering how they are arguably the most detrimental factors against hurricane formation and maintenance (even more so than wind shear imho), I think this season could spur efforts to study dry air and wave-breaking in more detail, and I have hope that one day we'll have a season that looks primed for high levels of activity, but our developed tools correctly predict robust dry air intrusions that shut down August and the first half of September during the early summer months.

3. The S Florida shield luck is no more, unfortunately. Ian completely ripped that idea apart, with some very tragic and unforgettable results. Interestingly, and it is something I look forward to discussing in the 2023 indicators thread in more detail, many of the hurricanes that are being closely compared to Ian (1944 Florida hurricane, 1948 Florida hurricane, and Charley in 2004) were followed by years like 1945, 1949, and 2005, which featured formidable hurricane landfalls on the SE Coast of the state (1945 and 1949 being Cat 4s). Now of course I'm not saying that SE Florida is at risk of a major hit next year, but it is interesting to see those years' behaviors regarding this metric. 2022 is a reminder that luck can only go so far, and Florida is a state that is still prone to major landfalling hurricanes for a reason. After all, hurricanes are much like how oranges and alligators in that they are parts of what make Florida Florida.

[tolakram]

Really cool article about mis-aligned tropical storms, and how they align.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/news/misaligned-tropical-cyclones/

 https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA/status/1597996916595658754

[jconsor]

I wrote a thread comparing 2022 to other years with a similar oceanic pattern. Like this year, most of these analog years saw activity focused in the western Atlantic basin and had a late start, with little significant activity prior to Aug 20.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1598313590804647936




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1598315662866276354




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1598319402398654474




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1598324001952223232