Texas Winter 2022-2023

[HockeyTx82]

Probably need to wait until beyond Dec 10 or maybe even mid-month before things really get interesting for the Southern Plains.

It's always two weeks out.......

[txtwister78]

ICON starting to hint at some shallow arctic air moving south next wk.

[Cpv17]

ICON starting to hint at some shallow arctic air moving south next wk.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2022120100/icon_T2m_us_56.png

This falls in line with what I was thinking around the 7th.

[Brent]

Some accumulating snow up here around hour 276 on the 0z GFS as well

That icon is very close to a winter storm here next week. There's precip in that timeframe

[HockeyTx82]

Happy Meteorological Winter

[Ralph's Weather]

Another freeze this morning for many, 28 at my place.
Looks like the shift towards cold starts late next week with potential for extended good starting mid month. All pieces are in place for a very cold 1st half of winter.

[Cpv17]

The 6z GFS is kinda interesting for NTX.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

HELLO WINTER my old friend!

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1598138542097457152




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1598032612211101696

[cstrunk]

Through November I have measured 41.55" of rain at my house. The average annual total is 49.55" so I'll need 8" of rain in December in order to catch up.

[Iceresistance]

I'm not sure that this was posted before
 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1598176617880522753

[Ntxw]

I'm not sure that this was posted before
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1598176617880522753?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

We have seen a tropospheric PV disruption via the usual wave suspects. -AO already in place and will be reinforced by the bottom up and eventually top down well into January. Just more -AO.

[snowballzzz]

Through November I have measured 41.55" of rain at my house. The average annual total is 49.55" so I'll need 8" of rain in December in order to catch up.

Just a couple hours west of you in Weatherford, I have only measured 17 inches for the year so far. Crazy!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I'm not sure that this was posted before
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1598176617880522753?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

We have seen a tropospheric PV disruption via the usual wave suspects. -AO already in place and will be reinforced by the bottom up and eventually top down well into January. Just more -AO.

I’m more wet behind the ears as some of you are regarding long range, but I’m not sure I’ve seen a long range set up like this in my weather fanatic days dating back to the late 1980s.

From mid December on, we really could have a TRUE winter where moderation and mild spells are the exception rather than the rule.

Thoughts on a potential 6 week below average period?

[Iceresistance]

I'm not sure that this was posted before
https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1598176617880522753?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

We have seen a tropospheric PV disruption via the usual wave suspects. -AO already in place and will be reinforced by the bottom up and eventually top down well into January. Just more -AO.

I’m more wet behind the ears as some of you are regarding long range, but I’m not sure I’ve seen a long range set up like this in my weather fanatic days dating back to the late 1980s.

From mid December on, we really could have a TRUE winter where moderation and mild spells are the exception rather than the rule.

Thoughts on a potential 6 week below average period?

That would counter the 2022 Cockroach Death ridge.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

We have seen a tropospheric PV disruption via the usual wave suspects. -AO already in place and will be reinforced by the bottom up and eventually top down well into January. Just more -AO.

I’m more wet behind the ears as some of you are regarding long range, but I’m not sure I’ve seen a long range set up like this in my weather fanatic days dating back to the late 1980s.

From mid December on, we really could have a TRUE winter where moderation and mild spells are the exception rather than the rule.

Thoughts on a potential 6 week below average period?

That would counter the 2022 Cockroach Death ridge.

Was that what y’all called this Summers ridge?

[Iceresistance]

I’m more wet behind the ears as some of you are regarding long range, but I’m not sure I’ve seen a long range set up like this in my weather fanatic days dating back to the late 1980s.

From mid December on, we really could have a TRUE winter where moderation and mild spells are the exception rather than the rule.

Thoughts on a potential 6 week below average period?

That would counter the 2022 Cockroach Death ridge.

Was that what y’all called this Summers ridge?

Yes, it's nasty!

[Ntxw]

What we really want is that NAO ridge to move and sit in Quebec/Newfoundland like in Feb 2021. It doesn't allow cold to escape east and better for the C-US. Something like what the 12z gfs has. I think the +PNA aspects are premature for a Nina.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

What we really want is that NAO ridge to move and sit in Quebec/Newfoundland like in Feb 2021. It doesn't allow cold to escape east and better for the C-US. Something like what the 12z gfs has. I think the +PNA aspects are premature for a Nina.

Yeah, wasn’t 2021 a pretty mediocre EPO, but everything else was just about perfect and it bled down

[Ntxw]

What we really want is that NAO ridge to move and sit in Quebec/Newfoundland like in Feb 2021. It doesn't allow cold to escape east and better for the C-US. Something like what the 12z gfs has. I think the +PNA aspects are premature for a Nina.

Yeah, wasn’t 2021 a pretty mediocre EPO, but everything else was just about perfect and it bled down

You had a -NAO block off Quebec/NewFoundland and the -AO went bonkers. EPO wasn't overly negative but enough to load some cold. Perfect trajectory. It was the NAO/AO combo that brought the 1st week of cold but the second, bigger surge with the EPO help.