Texas Winter 2022-2023
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ensembles are sniffing out the EPO shift, which is about the frame we were expecting mid month, following the seasonal pattern.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- ThunderSleetDreams
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:Ensembles are sniffing out the EPO shift, which is about the frame we were expecting mid month, following the seasonal pattern.
The Euro is showing 3 waves of cold in the long range.
1 next week, wave 2 gets to us around the 22nd roughly and wave 3 if it takes the same route would come right after Christmas. If all this verifies, we could be looking at one of of the colder Holiday seasons in a good while.
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#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Ntxw wrote:Ensembles are sniffing out the EPO shift, which is about the frame we were expecting mid month, following the seasonal pattern.
The Euro is showing 3 waves of cold in the long range.
1 next week, wave 2 gets to us around the 22nd roughly and wave 3 if it takes the same route would come right after Christmas. If all this verifies, we could be looking at one of of the colder Holiday seasons in a good while.
With the -AO solidly in place. There's going to be snowstorms.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
I just noticed on the 12z Euro that there is only one small spot of above average weather in the whole lower 48.... in SW Oregon and its barely above average.
That, ladies and gents, is what you call a full on high latitude block with all the TCs swinging our way.... if you like cold.
That, ladies and gents, is what you call a full on high latitude block with all the TCs swinging our way.... if you like cold.
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#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
I personally hope that I'm able to go to Missouri this winter from December 26th to December 30th. I haven't been there since 2019.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
harp wrote:Yes, but dry or wet? That’s the question.
High likelihood it would be a step down in terms of precip. Wave 1 brings frozen stuff to I-40 into Appalachia. Wave 2 could possibly bring it to I-20, and possibly Central Texas over to Northern HGX counties. After that, you could potentially see a Gulf Coast rider if the timing is right.
We are just way too far out to speculate on this yet. I like where the trends are heading.
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#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
I see our normal crew and 37 guests. I'm guessing this thread is about to get busy!
It's been several years since we've had a December thread in double digit pages in the first week.
It's been several years since we've had a December thread in double digit pages in the first week.
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#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:I see our normal crew and 37 guests. I'm guessing this thread is about to get busy!
It's been several years since we've had a December thread in double digit pages in the first week.
Just gotta get through this warm week. DFW airport sitting at 80 degrees at 3:15. YUCK!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:I see our normal crew and 37 guests. I'm guessing this thread is about to get busy!
It's been several years since we've had a December thread in double digit pages in the first week.
What are you doing awake at 80°F down there? Maybe getting a connection in your cold area?
It's 71°F here.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:I see our normal crew and 37 guests. I'm guessing this thread is about to get busy!
It's been several years since we've had a December thread in double digit pages in the first week.
I’ve been here lurking (and apparently not even signed in). Haven’t had enough confidence in the pattern to post anything yet, but certainly keep an eye on it as it may get interesting soon.
Ahhh, it’s good to be back!
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"Don't let wishcastin get in the way of your forecastin"
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Iceresistance wrote:ThunderSleetDreams wrote:I see our normal crew and 37 guests. I'm guessing this thread is about to get busy!
It's been several years since we've had a December thread in double digit pages in the first week.
What are you doing awake at 80°F down there? Maybe getting a connection in your cold area?
It's 71°F here.
Twiddling my thumbs like the Grinch ready to deliver Cold weather pain to the warm lovers in this area.
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#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
- ThunderSleetDreams
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Texas Snow wrote:ThunderSleetDreams wrote:I see our normal crew and 37 guests. I'm guessing this thread is about to get busy!
It's been several years since we've had a December thread in double digit pages in the first week.
I’ve been here lurking (and apparently not even signed in). Haven’t had enough confidence in the pattern to post anything yet, but certainly keep an eye on it as it may get interesting soon.
Ahhh, it’s good to be back!
Regardless of severity, I feel very confident in a below average Holiday Season. Now, a snow storm or two and temps no higher than 40 would be lagniappe.
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#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
We were supposed to make a run at 70 today and it's still only 54. There was still dense fog at lunch!
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Unfortunately for us, as others above have noted, the GFS and its suites are not going to be reliable as we enter the blocking pattern. The skill scores for the upgraded version continues to be of lesser value than the old GFS prior.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Brent wrote:We were supposed to make a run at 70 today and it's still only 54. There was still dense fog at lunch!
On the flip side, it's mostly sunny and 71°F outside at my location!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:Unfortunately for us, as others above have noted, the GFS and its suites are not going to be reliable as we enter the blocking pattern. The skill scores for the upgraded version continues to be of lesser value than the old GFS prior.
Why are the skill levels even poorer with the upgraded models? That is so weird because in normal terms, the upgrade improves the accuracy of the model.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- ThunderSleetDreams
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- Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:42 pm
- Location: S of Weimar, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:Unfortunately for us, as others above have noted, the GFS and its suites are not going to be reliable as we enter the blocking pattern. The skill scores for the upgraded version continues to be of lesser value than the old GFS prior.
That’s amazing, and by amazing, I mean hysterically bad.
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#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Iceresistance wrote:Brent wrote:We were supposed to make a run at 70 today and it's still only 54. There was still dense fog at lunch!
On the flip side, it's mostly sunny and 71°F outside at my location!
Tulsa is edged by the cooler air mass to the North. It's a clash between cold north vs warm south.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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