2022 WPAC Season

[mrbagyo]

00z GFS is fantasizing about the area of disorganized convection south of the Hawaiian islands.
ECMWF and CMC also showing some weak vorticity.
Something to keep an eye on.

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

Euro showing tropical development by end of November, while GFS has it already as Pakhar at the same timeframe.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has a long traking SuperTyphoon moving just south of Guam and then arrives at Luzon.

[Hayabusa]

12z GFS has a long traking SuperTyphoon moving just south of Guam and then arrives at Luzon.

https://i.imgur.com/O0g6ihl.gif

ECMWF 12Z keeps it on a quick, flat track.

Multi 12Z, the GFS plot here is presumably from the GFSV16 which shows a more south track

[Hayabusa]

12Z ensembles

[dexterlabio]

I'm feeling a Rai redux, hopefully not because even after a year some areas in the Visayas and Mindanao have not yet fully recovered, and then there was Nalgae a month ago that also brought widespread damages in the region.

[Hayabusa]

I'm feeling a Rai redux, hopefully not because even after a year some areas in the Visayas and Mindanao have not yet fully recovered, and then there was Nalgae a month ago that also brought widespread damages in the region.

I think the same but it could be much stronger, GFS starts to ramp this up near 160E while it was forming Rai between 140-150E

[xtyphooncyclonex]

A Rai redux is the last thing we'd like to see. Some power lines especially in Mactan are a mess and some structures haven't been fixed. Same thing in CARAGA and other provinces...

[Hayabusa]

After the eye catching runs from the GFS it has now backed off while the Euro remains unfazed for significant tropical development but ensembles seem to say otherwise

[Hayabusa]

After the failed 90W, GFS is BS'ng again in 5 days. There's some Euro ensemble support but the recent failure it too had a decent ensemble support and the operational was developing it. This time I will only believe it when it happens

[mrbagyo]

After the failed 90W, GFS is BS'ng again in 5 days. There's some Euro ensemble support but the recent failure it too had a decent ensemble support and the operational was developing it. This time I will only believe it when it happens

Is it time to switch our focus to SHEM? WPAC and the rest of NHEM is just dead this past few weeks

[dexterlabio]

I guess we need to wait for the other models to pick it up as well.

[Kingarabian]

I'm not sure if it's NCEP bias or not. There should be some transition towards Neutral ENSO soon. So it should be expected that there will be anomalous westerlies/rising motion in the WPAC that should trigger a STY. We'll see. It's been a somewhat odd year.

[dexterlabio]

I'm not sure if it's NCEP bias or not. There should be some transition towards Neutral ENSO soon. So it should be expected that there will be anomalous westerlies/rising motion in the WPAC that should trigger a STY. We'll see. It's been a somewhat odd year.

maybe that will happen early 2023?

[Hayabusa]

I'm not sure if it's NCEP bias or not. There should be some transition towards Neutral ENSO soon. So it should be expected that there will be anomalous westerlies/rising motion in the WPAC that should trigger a STY. We'll see. It's been a somewhat odd year.

It happened with the mighty Surigae, that GFS even modeled an equatorial crossover but it didn't flip the switch. If something's like that happening soon, it should be as mighty as Surigae.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/CyanideCN_/status/1601029586258518017

[Hayabusa]

Could 2022 still output one last storm? MJO forecast moving in 3rd week of December...

[Hayabusa]

Best track released, Hinnamor and Noru got upgraded to 145 knots
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/product ... wp2022.zip

[Hurricane2022]

Best track released, Hinnamor and Noru got upgraded to 145 knots
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/product ... wp2022.zip
https://i.imgur.com/79GLhnF.png