Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Iceresistance]

EC-Fast for now, but oof.


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/ec-fast_T850a_namer_10.png

[Brent]

The TWC app has me barely above freezing the several days at the beginning of Christmas week by far the coldest forecast I've seen this winter

[Iceresistance]

The 12z GEFS has an extremely strong snowfall signal for being 2 weeks out between December 18th and Christmas (December 25th). I have never seen a signal this strong that far out!

[harp]

The 12z GEFS has an extremely strong snowfall signal for being 2 weeks out between December 18th and Christmas (December 25th). I have never seen a signal this strong that far out!

For what regions?

[Iceresistance]

The 12z GEFS has an extremely strong snowfall signal for being 2 weeks out between December 18th and Christmas (December 25th). I have never seen a signal this strong that far out!

For what regions?

Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, and maybe NW Louisiana.

[rwfromkansas]

Geez, I get on and have 3 pages to read through. Getting busy. I think Wxman's cautious approach is warranted, but I think the signs are there for some good stuff. I really don't mind the warmth for now since it's just early December, but it would be nice to have some cold and if I'm lucky some snow over Christmas. We will be in Abilene for Christmas, and I believe it was 2009 we had a great snow there on Christmas eve. Then, going to Kansas for the 29th or so coming back the 1st for my family. It would be nice to see some snow there if I miss it here. There was one geat year we went up for the holidays despite the weather because we thought it would be a small storm of maybe 3-4 inches (and I thought we would beat it there....). It ended up being much worse, with ice in OK and then close to home it was a raging blizzard they couldn't clear the highway fast enough. Ended up with almost a foot at my house and our little Prius pushed the snow in the driveway.

[WinterMax]

The 12z GEFS has an extremely strong snowfall signal for being 2 weeks out between December 18th and Christmas (December 25th). I have never seen a signal this strong that far out!

For what regions?

I think he’s in OKC

[Iceresistance]

The 12z GEFS has an extremely strong snowfall signal for being 2 weeks out between December 18th and Christmas (December 25th). I have never seen a signal this strong that far out!

For what regions?

I think he’s in OKC

Tecumseh, OK to be exact, but fair enough if you want to reference the biggest city in Central Oklahoma to know my general location.

Also, welcome back!

[Iceresistance]

I decided to add the image for Y'all to see what I'm talking about on the 12z GEFS.


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/CODNEXLAB-FORECAST-2022120712-GEFS-SGP-winter-meansnacc-312-384-100.gif

[Brent]

WOW!

Radar
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2022120712.prateptype_cat.us_sc.gif
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2022120712.prateptype_cat.us_sc.gif

Snowfall potential (Of course there is a DFW Dry Slot!)
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/12z-GFS-Snowfall.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/12z-GFS-Snowfall.png

Ice totals (The one in Oklahoma is from an earlier system)
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/zr_acc.us_sc.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/zr_acc.us_sc.png

That's quite some colorful maps you've posted. I'd be curious what professional mets have to say about stuff like that this far out.

I know we have a TV met here who is already dropping hints on social media and through the 7 day forecast there is zero cold air so yeah that's saying something

[ThunderSleetDreams]

WOW!

Radar
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2022120712.prateptype_cat.us_sc.gif
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2022120712.prateptype_cat.us_sc.gif

Snowfall potential (Of course there is a DFW Dry Slot!)
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/12z-GFS-Snowfall.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/12z-GFS-Snowfall.png

Ice totals (The one in Oklahoma is from an earlier system)
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/zr_acc.us_sc.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/zr_acc.us_sc.png

That's quite some colorful maps you've posted. I'd be curious what professional mets have to say about stuff like that this far out.

I know we have a TV met here who is already dropping hints on social media and through the 7 day forecast there is zero cold air so yeah that's saying something

The way that is worded kinda contradicts itselfz.

Are you saying he’s dropping hints the cold is coming but his graphics show zero cold?

[Brent]

That's quite some colorful maps you've posted. I'd be curious what professional mets have to say about stuff like that this far out.

I know we have a TV met here who is already dropping hints on social media and through the 7 day forecast there is zero cold air so yeah that's saying something

The way that is worded kinda contradicts itselfz.

Are you saying he’s dropping hints the cold is coming but his graphics show zero cold?

It's all beyond 7 days is the issue

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I know we have a TV met here who is already dropping hints on social media and through the 7 day forecast there is zero cold air so yeah that's saying something

The way that is worded kinda contradicts itselfz.

Are you saying he’s dropping hints the cold is coming but his graphics show zero cold?

It's all beyond 7 days is the issue

Well yeah. We all know that. Next Wednesday is seasonal and it gets below on Thursday and well below on Friday.

I’m not questioning if the cold is coming. It is. You can see it across the board and there is no fly in the ointment.

The question is how cold and what type of precip, if any, although I’d be shocked if we didn’t see any precip given the current setup.

[Cpv17]

As expected, 57 isn’t sold yet. But I think he’ll be losing this battle!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

As expected, 57 isn’t sold yet. But I think he’ll be losing this battle!

He knows it is coming. You have to respect he is great at trolling some of y’all.

[Ntxw]

Not sure what the rest of the run will do but 18z is already earlier in the run showing more -EPO ridge than 12z.

[Iceresistance]

Not sure what the rest of the run will do but 18z is already earlier in the run showing more -EPO ridge than 12z.

Happy Hour as usual!

[HockeyTx82]

Not sure what the rest of the run will do but 18z is already earlier in the run showing more -EPO ridge than 12z.

What does that mean?

[Cpv17]

As expected, 57 isn’t sold yet. But I think he’ll be losing this battle!

He knows it is coming. You have to respect he is great at trolling some of y’all.

Yeah I think he knows it’s coming but I believe he really isn’t sold yet on the direction and he could be leaning towards us only getting a glancing blow. At least that’s how I perceived it.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

As expected, 57 isn’t sold yet. But I think he’ll be losing this battle!

He knows it is coming. You have to respect he is great at trolling some of y’all.

Yeah I think he knows it’s coming but I believe he really isn’t sold yet on the direction and he could be leaning towards us only getting a glancing blow. At least that’s how I perceived it.

I see nothing that suggests a moderately or extremely positive PNA in the next two to three weeks. Negative NAO, negative EPO… high latitude blocking across the board.

A slightly positive PNA still puts us squarely in the mix although the forecast is for it to remain neutral to slightly negative.

Hell, I’m almost to the point where I won’t be expecting anything north of 65 degrees the rest of the month once we pass the 15th.