ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 99, 2022120512, , BEST, 0, 251N, 553W, 30, 1004, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 360, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 042, SPAWNINVEST, al762022 to al992022,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[Iceresistance]

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this week over the central Atlantic.

1. A large area of low pressure located over the central subtropical
Atlantic about 750 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some
subtropical characteristics while it drifts northeastward during the
next few days. By Thursday night or Friday, however, the low is
expected to move over cooler waters, ending its chances of becoming
a subtropical cyclone. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical Weather
Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EST today or
earlier.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This one has potential to be one of the strongest December storms we've ever seen should the models verify.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricane2022]

last few days i was just watching the world cup games and i didn't even notice that the models showed the possibility of a cyclone in the atlantic ocean this month, DECEMBER
2022 continues to surprise

[AnnularCane]

A possible December baby, maybe?

(I didn't realize how many stickied threads the Active Storms forum had.)

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
subtropical development this week over the central Atlantic.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A large and complex area of low pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics while it meanders generally northeastward during the
next few days. By Friday, the low is expected to move over cooler
waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting potential
of tropical transition after that time. Additional information on
this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EST
Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Hurricane2022]

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
845 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
subtropical development this week over the central Atlantic.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A large area of low pressure located over the central subtropical
Atlantic about 800 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands
continues to produce a broad area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development
and a subtropical or tropical storm could form in the next couple of
days. By Thursday night or Friday, the low will move northeastward
over cooler waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting
subtropical or tropical development of the system. Additional
information on this low, including warnings, can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9
PM EST tonight, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

[tolakram]

SLIDER
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=14316.7392578125&y=5505.2861328125&z=3&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=cira_proxy_visible&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[ChrisH-UK]

Invest 99 is looking healthy this afternoon.

Source - https://col.st/z2drZ

[Sciencerocks]

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like 99L will be under the convection shortly.

[Iceresistance]

If 99L forms into a STD/S or TD/S, it will be the first ATL December since (ironically) 2013.

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like the center is now under the convection and the convection is increasing.

GOES-16 Proxy Visible + IR

Source - https://col.st/CFITT

[Hammy]

If 99L forms into a STD/S or TD/S, it will be the first ATL December since (ironically) 2013.

The "2013 all over again" takes will have gotten at least one point right

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
subtropical development over the central Atlantic.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A large non-tropical area of low pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic about 900 miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. This activity has become somewhat better organized
this morning, though frontal features remain attached to the low.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development
and a subtropical or tropical storm could form within the next day
or so. By Friday, the low will move northeastward over cooler
waters and interact with a mid-latitude trough, limiting the chance
for additional subtropical or tropical development of the system.
Additional information on this low, including warnings, can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The
next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued
by 9 PM EST Wednesday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin

[Sciencerocks]

[PavelGaborik10]

Get the feeling they don't want to name this one.