ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

It is clearly extratropical
1. Front
2. Broad wide field
3. Little to no convection near the center

I am starting to believe that this doesn't have more then a 20% of being named.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1600584481236258833

[cycloneye]

Looks like we will not have Owen.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
825 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
subtropical development over the central Atlantic.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A large non-tropical area of low pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic about 950 miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands is producing an extensive area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Although this system may acquire some
subtropical characteristics tonight and Thursday, it is unlikely to
become completely detached from a frontal zone. By Friday, the low
will move northeastward over cooler waters and interact with a
mid-latitude trough, limiting the chance for additional subtropical
or tropical development of the system. Additional information on
this low, including warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EST Thursday,
or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[TheEuropean]

Down to 30%, still frontal:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
230 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
subtropical development over the central Atlantic.

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased since last evening near a
large non-tropical area of low pressure located over the central
subtropical Atlantic about 850 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.
However, the system remains embedded within a frontal zone, which is
expected to become more pronounced later today as the low begins to
move east-northeastward at 20 to 25 mph toward colder waters and
interact with a mid-latitude trough. Therefore, while the system
could show some subtropical characteristics today, its chances to
fully transition to a subtropical or tropical cyclone appear to be
decreasing. Nevertheless, significant non-tropical development of
this low is expected during the next couple of days, and additional
information, including hurricane-force wind warnings, can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The
next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued
by 9 AM EST Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%. Last STWO issued.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
840 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
subtropical development over the central Atlantic.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A non-tropical low pressure area located about 925 miles
east-southeast of Bermuda continues to produce an extensive area
of showers and thunderstorms. However, the system remains
embedded within a frontal zone, which is expected to become even
more pronounced later today as the low begins to move
east-northeastward at 20 to 25 mph toward colder waters and
interacts with a mid-latitude trough. Therefore, it is unlikely
that the low will transition to a subtropical or tropical cyclone.
Nevertheless, significant non-tropical development of this low is
expected during the next couple of days, and additional information,
including hurricane-force wind warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on
this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will
resume on May 15, 2023, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued as necessary during the off-season.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Efrain.

 https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1601635228266950657