Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

Also the thunder and lightning with this even behind cool air is impressive. Are we sure there's a Nina?

[Iceresistance]

Also the thunder and lightning with this even behind cool air is impressive. Are we sure there's a Nina?

That is what I thought when it was thundering and lightning outside as well last night!

The SOI index is more positive again sadly.

[gpsnowman]

Also the thunder and lightning with this even behind cool air is impressive. Are we sure there's a Nina?

Looks like more rain will fall for a while longer too. Bump up the totals and then another round Tuesday. If it is going to be this sticky and humid in December it better rain.

[HockeyTx82]

Here we go! It's Snow Miser vs Heat Miser on the models! And those two are really going at work!

https://youtu.be/3e1SQmt9WtQ

I'm mister 101F... I wouldn't get too excited about anything until if and when there is any cold air up north. There's none now.

Thank you for being a voice of reason as always. I'm with you on this one.

[Itryatgolf]

Also the thunder and lightning with this even behind cool air is impressive. Are we sure there's a Nina?

I just don't think it's going to be all that cold. Reason being and I understand the gfs has been upgraded recently and has been having amazing run to run inconsistencies, but typically its a cold biased model and for it not to show really cold air is concerning for a big cold blast. For anyone thinking of big major outbreaks like I've seen on Twitter, they going to be disappointed lol.

[Ntxw]

Also the thunder and lightning with this even behind cool air is impressive. Are we sure there's a Nina?

I just don't think it's going to be all that cold. Reason being and I understand the gfs has been upgraded recently and has been having amazing run to run inconsistencies, but typically its a cold biased model and for it not to show really cold air is concerning for a big cold blast. For anyone thinking of big major outbreaks like I've seen on Twitter, they going to be disappointed lol.

I think that's fine, everyone is entitled to their model of choice . Nothing is promised and nothing is given, we all just discuss the possibilities.

[Itryatgolf]

Also the thunder and lightning with this even behind cool air is impressive. Are we sure there's a Nina?

I just don't think it's going to be all that cold. Reason being and I understand the gfs has been upgraded recently and has been having amazing run to run inconsistencies, but typically its a cold biased model and for it not to show really cold air is concerning for a big cold blast. For anyone thinking of big major outbreaks like I've seen on Twitter, they going to be disappointed lol.

I think that's fine, everyone is entitled to their model of choice . Nothing is promised and nothing is given, we all just discuss the possibilities.

I guess that's what models do when it's so far out. Hopefully we all get a decent winter event sooner or later this winter

[Ntxw]

I just don't think it's going to be all that cold. Reason being and I understand the gfs has been upgraded recently and has been having amazing run to run inconsistencies, but typically its a cold biased model and for it not to show really cold air is concerning for a big cold blast. For anyone thinking of big major outbreaks like I've seen on Twitter, they going to be disappointed lol.

I think that's fine, everyone is entitled to their model of choice . Nothing is promised and nothing is given, we all just discuss the possibilities.

I guess that's what models do when it's so far out. Hopefully we all get a decent winter event sooner or later this winter

We'll have to see when it happens. Whether we get severe cold or not, I would be shocked if the southern plains comes out post Christmas without a snow event.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I just don't think it's going to be all that cold. Reason being and I understand the gfs has been upgraded recently and has been having amazing run to run inconsistencies, but typically its a cold biased model and for it not to show really cold air is concerning for a big cold blast. For anyone thinking of big major outbreaks like I've seen on Twitter, they going to be disappointed lol.

I think that's fine, everyone is entitled to their model of choice . Nothing is promised and nothing is given, we all just discuss the possibilities.

I guess that's what models do when it's so far out. Hopefully we all get a decent winter event sooner or later this winter

Ummmm. The new GFS is NOT cold biased. It is extremely warm biased and that’s been talked about a bunch with long range forecasters recently.

[Iceresistance]

I think that's fine, everyone is entitled to their model of choice . Nothing is promised and nothing is given, we all just discuss the possibilities.

I guess that's what models do when it's so far out. Hopefully we all get a decent winter event sooner or later this winter

We'll have to see when it happens. Whether we get severe cold or not, I would be shocked if the southern plains comes out post Christmas without a snow event.

That would be a big disappointment, all of this for nothing!

[Iceresistance]

I think that's fine, everyone is entitled to their model of choice . Nothing is promised and nothing is given, we all just discuss the possibilities.

I guess that's what models do when it's so far out. Hopefully we all get a decent winter event sooner or later this winter

Ummmm. The new GFS is NOT cold biased. It is extremely warm biased and that’s been talked about a bunch with long range forecasters recently.

I think that Heat Miser had to do with something on the 'upgraded' GFS.

[Quixotic]

Just going to say that 09-10 was never super cold. Just cold enough with good ripples in the jet overhead.

[Quixotic]

As others have stated, ridiculous cold almost always comes with suppression. 83-84 and 89-90 come to mind. Give me 20-30 degrees with a cold column and I’ll be happy.

[Iceresistance]

Today marks 1 year since the Quad-State Tornado Family, I can't believe it's already 1 year since this happened!

 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1601706137056817152

[Itryatgolf]

I think that's fine, everyone is entitled to their model of choice . Nothing is promised and nothing is given, we all just discuss the possibilities.

I guess that's what models do when it's so far out. Hopefully we all get a decent winter event sooner or later this winter

Ummmm. The new GFS is NOT cold biased. It is extremely warm biased and that’s been talked about a bunch with long range forecasters recently.

I guess I meant the old gfs, but definitely the new gfs has been bouncing around too much with not much accuracy.

[Itryatgolf]

Today marks 1 year since the Quad-State Tornado Family, I can't believe it's already 1 year since this happened!

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1601706137056817152?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

I remember that because I was like 6 miles nw of all the action that night. It was pretty bad

[Itryatgolf]

Just going to say that 09-10 was never super cold. Just cold enough with good ripples in the jet overhead.

Definitely consistent cold that winter. We got two winter events two weeks in a row I believe

[Cpv17]

Also the thunder and lightning with this even behind cool air is impressive. Are we sure there's a Nina?

I just don't think it's going to be all that cold. Reason being and I understand the gfs has been upgraded recently and has been having amazing run to run inconsistencies, but typically its a cold biased model and for it not to show really cold air is concerning for a big cold blast. For anyone thinking of big major outbreaks like I've seen on Twitter, they going to be disappointed lol.

I really wouldn’t pay much attention to any operationals right now. Maybe in a week from now the operationals will start to pick up on the true cold.

[Quixotic]

Just going to say that 09-10 was never super cold. Just cold enough with good ripples in the jet overhead.

Definitely consistent cold that winter. We got tei winter events two weeks in a row I believe

Yep! It varied. Got the white Christmas. Sporadic dusting in January. Record snow in February. And a dusting that turned into a 7” snowfall IMBY in March. DFW had almost beat 77-78 but while I only got 10” in February, I jackpotted in March. Definitely had 20-25” that year. It was wonderful.

[Ntxw]

Just going to say that 09-10 was never super cold. Just cold enough with good ripples in the jet overhead.

Definitely consistent cold that winter. We got tei winter events two weeks in a row I believe

Yep! It varied. Got the white Christmas. Sporadic dusting in January. Record snow in February. And a dusting that turned into a 7” snowfall IMBY in March. DFW had almost beat 77-78 but while I only got 10” in February, I jackpotted in March. Definitely had 20-25” that year. It was wonderful.

Good memories. Could also easily have been less than 5" though at DFW for the season. The footer bust was snow@33F nearly the whole event and March not even forecasted to be much, also extremely marginal. Only Christmas Eve was bonafide cold enough. The upper level systems provided much of their own cold.

2021 we could've scored 10-25" like the surrounding areas n/s/e/w...need a redux of that but maybe a bit less cold for better tracks.