Texas Winter 2022-2023

[dpep4]

How come the Houston NWS office seemingly refuses to ever issue a Hazardous Weather Outlook? I see once again that they are the only gap of white in a sea of tan across most of TX and LA. Only exceptions are way off in the Texas Panhandle and along the Mississippi River. Happens frequently, so it has to be something like ideological reasons or bullheadedness by now.

I mean, we'll all survive without one being issued there, but it is quite odd.

Edit: I guess I should ask why they refuse to update the map with the tan shading and link to alert those skimming the page that an outlook has been issued for that office's area. I see they have a HWO as the 3rd item on the local page graphics box, if one chooses to read that far. But not linked like every other office does it. Still weird. Been that way for years.

[Itryatgolf]

Definitely consistent cold that winter. We got tei winter events two weeks in a row I believe

Yep! It varied. Got the white Christmas. Sporadic dusting in January. Record snow in February. And a dusting that turned into a 7” snowfall IMBY in March. DFW had almost beat 77-78 but while I only got 10” in February, I jackpotted in March. Definitely had 20-25” that year. It was wonderful.

Good memories. Could also easily have been less than 5" though at DFW for the season. The footer bust was snow@33F nearly the whole event and March not even forecasted to be much, also extremely marginal. Only Christmas Eve was bonafide cold enough. The upper level systems provided much of their own cold.

2021 we could've scored 10-25" like the surrounding areas n/s/e/w...need a redux of that but maybe a bit less cold for better tracks.

I'm hoping we see a feb 2021 redux, but that's me being optimistic. Just a little less cold and more precipitation.

[Brent]

I think that's fine, everyone is entitled to their model of choice . Nothing is promised and nothing is given, we all just discuss the possibilities.

I guess that's what models do when it's so far out. Hopefully we all get a decent winter event sooner or later this winter

We'll have to see when it happens. Whether we get severe cold or not, I would be shocked if the southern plains comes out post Christmas without a snow event.

This is kind of my thought too. I'm not really worried about this pattern... It sure beats last year when it was 70s and 80s on Christmas but whatever. Well have plenty of winter ahead even if this somehow doesn't pan out. I feel pretty confident about the cold though... I mean even Wednesday its cold here so it's not like it's some foreign idea

And to be totally honest I'm not sure I want extreme cold because it'll probably just be dry and that's no fun. We gotta thread the needle right

[South Texas Storms]

Also the thunder and lightning with this even behind cool air is impressive. Are we sure there's a Nina?

Sadly in south TX and the Hill Country we can definitely tell La Nina is still going on. Running rainfall deficits of close to 20 inches in some areas. Also seeing that in parts of southeast TX.

[Ntxw]

I guess that's what models do when it's so far out. Hopefully we all get a decent winter event sooner or later this winter

We'll have to see when it happens. Whether we get severe cold or not, I would be shocked if the southern plains comes out post Christmas without a snow event.

This is kind of my thought too. I'm not really worried about this pattern... It sure beats last year when it was 70s and 80s on Christmas but whatever. Well have plenty of winter ahead even if this somehow doesn't pan out. I feel pretty confident about the cold though... I mean even Wednesday its cold here so it's not like it's some foreign idea

And to be totally honest I'm not sure I want extreme cold because it'll probably just be dry and that's no fun. We gotta thread the needle right

With you there, am over 70s and 80s for Christmas. Would like a fireplace going cold.

[Cpv17]

Also the thunder and lightning with this even behind cool air is impressive. Are we sure there's a Nina?

Sadly in south TX and the Hill Country we can definitely tell La Nina is still going on. Running rainfall deficits of close to 20 inches in some areas. Also seeing that in parts of southeast TX.

I got 8” here in Wharton County during November. It’s been a couple weeks since we’ve seen any rain but some low lying areas are still trying to dry out.

[Brent]

The 0z GFS is gonna get DFW talking for next Sunday

Of course it's been terribly inconsistent

[Iceresistance]

The 0z GFS is gonna get DFW talking for next Sunday

Of course it's been terribly inconsistent

I just saw that, I get cold dry slotted!

[Brent]

It's also much colder leading up to Christmas again. It keeps flip flopping

[Texas Snow]

The 0z GFS is gonna get DFW talking for next Sunday

Of course it's been terribly inconsistent

Yep The snowfall map and the frigid Christmas will get people talking, but as we all agree right now it can’t be trusted. Besides, by the time people pull up the models when they wake up tomorrow they will probably be completely opposite.

[Cpv17]

The 0z GFS is gonna get DFW talking for next Sunday

Of course it's been terribly inconsistent

Yep The snowfall map and the frigid Christmas will get people talking, but as we all agree right now it can’t be trusted. Besides, by the time people pull up the models when they wake up tomorrow they will probably be completely opposite.

It doesn’t matter what operationals do as long as the ensembles stay the same.

[Brent]

The 0z GFS is gonna get DFW talking for next Sunday

Of course it's been terribly inconsistent

Yep The snowfall map and the frigid Christmas will get people talking, but as we all agree right now it can’t be trusted. Besides, by the time people pull up the models when they wake up tomorrow they will probably be completely opposite.

It doesn’t matter what operationals do as long as the ensembles stay the same.

Yeah and from what I see of the GEFS it still looks amazing. Coldest air is straight down the Plains

Our TV met I've been watching just put out a new post about above average chance of a white Christmas and sustained cold that week

[Cpv17]

Yep The snowfall map and the frigid Christmas will get people talking, but as we all agree right now it can’t be trusted. Besides, by the time people pull up the models when they wake up tomorrow they will probably be completely opposite.

It doesn’t matter what operationals do as long as the ensembles stay the same.

Yeah and from what I see of the GEFS it still looks amazing. Coldest air is straight down the Plains

Our TV met I've been watching just put out a new post about above average chance of a white Christmas and sustained cold that week

Yeah I’m really trying to temper my expectations and contain my excitement but this honestly is looking like it has potential to be historic. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a more favorable setup in the upper levels than what’s currently being shown. I think in another 5-7 days the operationals will have a better handle on what’s going on. I mean look how much colder they’re trending for next weekend.

[Ntxw]

With the Euro, a lot of guidance have the right pieces for snow next weekend in NTX. It has been a good trend today. Not perfect by any means but there is still plenty of room to improve.

[Brent]

Okay so the Euro has DFW in the 50s while the GFS is snowing we'll see if the GFS stays consistent(it has not so far) but if it does the Euro has had some massive fails before as mentioned. The bigger story is still what's to come after that tbh

[Ntxw]

Looks like the EC is ready to unload the cold. 1060mb high fwiw in the Arctic region is near record (record was somewhere close to this back in Feb 2021 for the same region).

[Ntxw]

Okay so the Euro has DFW in the 50s while the GFS is snowing we'll see if the GFS stays consistent(it has not so far) but if it does the Euro has had some massive fails before as mentioned. The bigger story is still what's to come after that tbh

History proves the models want to hold up the cold but in nearly every legit outbreak, that gets beat. It has been comical really the past few years. They like the upper flow and often cannot discern dense cold.

[txtwister78]

Okay so the Euro has DFW in the 50s while the GFS is snowing we'll see if the GFS stays consistent(it has not so far) but if it does the Euro has had some massive fails before as mentioned. The bigger story is still what's to come after that tbh

History proves the models want to hold up the cold but in nearly every legit outbreak, that gets beat. It has been comical really the past few years. They like the upper flow and often cannot discern dense cold.

Agreed...as mentioned the other day, with that much arctic air dislodged into the Midwest (per all the models), there is no way that's not headed south under this pattern. I think as seen in previous events; the models will "correct" as we get closer.

I think we see this come in phases with next weekend probably trending colder and then the final hammer coming sometime midweek in the lead up to Christmas. A lot on the table and should be fun to watch it all play out.

[HockeyTx82]

Should I be worried that I woke up and we are only on page 38?

At the rate we were going and the hype that was building I was at least hoping to be on page 46 at minimum.

[gpsnowman]

Should I be worried that I woke up and we are only on page 38?

At the rate we were going and the hype that was building I was at least hoping to be on page 46 at minimum.

Some positive posts overnight. Give it a few days, we will be close to 100 pages soon enough.
4 members and 40 guests on a Sunday morning is impressive.