Texas Winter 2022-2023

[WinterMax]

2 straight cold runs on GFS, maybe a trend ?

[Iceresistance]

0z dumps Texas, and the 6z dumps me and Missouri.

The GFS may be onto something, normally (under previous trends) the 0z and 6z is worse than 18z, but not this time around.

[Iceresistance]

Has anyone noticed the 0z Euro? It's insane!

[bubba hotep]

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I’m ready to get hammered by Winter!

Only 3 more days of this nasty air.

[Brent]

Good grief that would be up there with the all time low here. Maybe the GFS is starting to come around to the potential on the ensembles?

Of course now that I say that... The 12z will probably torch

[Cpv17]

Has anyone noticed the 0z Euro? It's insane!

I noticed that it had a 1068MB high in the Artic Ocean. That’s insanely strong for the Euro to be showing that. Usually that model is conservative in regards to the strength of HP’s.

[snowballzzz]

It's also much colder leading up to Christmas again. It keeps flip flopping

The models are going to flip flop for the next several days. Don't put all of your eggs into one basket.

[Iceresistance]

There are absolutely no areas of above normal Temperatures anywhere in the CONUS in the 7-10 and 8-14 day outlooks on the CPC!

[Ntxw]

It isn't just the Euro so does the GFS with 1060mb+ up in the Arctic. Noted Feb 2021 holds the record up there around 1060. It funnels very cold air to Canada.

Agree with cpv in about 5-7 days we will probably hear a different tune from wxman57 saying it is very cold up there.

[bubba hotep]

Missed in all the looking ahead, a record rainfall event yesterday at DFW.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2022

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT DALLAS/FORT WORTH...

A TOTAL OF 1.37 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT DFW AIRPORT ON SATURDAY. THIS
BREAKS THE DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORD FOR DECEMBER 10, WHICH WAS
1.13 INCHES IN 1998.

$$

[Ntxw]

Should I be worried that I woke up and we are only on page 38?

At the rate we were going and the hype that was building I was at least hoping to be on page 46 at minimum.

One of the caveats is the consensus (group here) sometimes have gotten so good with so much lead time (we've been beating the drum) for so long you really can't add much more to the general picture. Feels like we've been saying mid month pattern change forever and mid month is still several more days away.

Large area of -40s and even -50s will enter from Siberia early week. The doubters will probably shift then.

[Cpv17]

Missed in all the looking ahead, a record rainfall event yesterday at DFW.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 AM CST SUN DEC 11 2022

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT DALLAS/FORT WORTH...

A TOTAL OF 1.37 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT DFW AIRPORT ON SATURDAY. THIS
BREAKS THE DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORD FOR DECEMBER 10, WHICH WAS
1.13 INCHES IN 1998.

$$

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fjrb0z1VUAMKuuD?format=jpg&name=medium

I got 2.6” around 5-6 am this morning to add on to the 8” I got last month. It’s a slop fest out there.

[Iceresistance]

Talking about the 0z runs. (Likely a thread)

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1601923532610576385




 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1601870340711399426

[txtwister78]

Too much of a good thing overnight across eastern areas of Bexar into Guadlupe County.

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1601868949548896256

[Iceresistance]

2 Hours ago

 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1601933867518431233

[Ntxw]

1064mb in the Arctic for the ICON.

[Cpv17]

1064mb in the Arctic for the ICON.

I’m seeing a lot of chatter and a vibe I’m getting from the past couple days is that it seems like a lot of people are expecting it to get colder but nothing close to an Artic outbreak. Seems like most people are just expecting it to be a few degrees colder than your norms. I’ve yet to see any on air met mention anything about Artic air coming. I expect this could change in a few days.

[Ntxw]

1064mb in the Arctic for the ICON.

I’m seeing a lot of chatter and a vibe I’m getting from the past couple days is that it seems like a lot of people are expecting it to get colder but nothing close to an Artic outbreak. Seems like most people are just expecting it to be a few degrees colder than your norms. I’ve yet to see any on air met mention anything about Artic air coming. I expect this could change in a few days.

Most take a statistical approach, would also if your forecast was relied upon. But the window for a severe to historic outbreak is possible and in fact growing. Take the whole picture, it's not one or two runs here and there of the GFS anymore. 144-192 hour range now we can see the guidance moving to unload a significant Siberian air mass.

Even with a statistical approach the blend no longer really gives one an out for warmer outcome.

[wxman57]

I notice major differences in the 500mb flow at 240 hrs. Euro drives the Arctic air east across southern Canada. GFS has an upper low much farther south, so it's colder for TX. Meanwhile, the source region remains relatively warm. Note that JB only cares about cold in Pennsylvania when he says "extreme cold coming". He's talking about the NE U.S. Historically, Christmas week has potential for very cold air coming south, followed by the January thaw. I think my wall may well hold, keeping Houston in the 70s to 80 for Christmas.

Don't get too excited until there is actually some cold air up north. By then, maybe there will be some sort of model agreement in the pattern. Maybe by next weekend.