Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Iceresistance]

1064mb in the Arctic for the ICON.

I’m seeing a lot of chatter and a vibe I’m getting from the past couple days is that it seems like a lot of people are expecting it to get colder but nothing close to an Artic outbreak. Seems like most people are just expecting it to be a few degrees colder than your norms. I’ve yet to see any on air met mention anything about Artic air coming. I expect this could change in a few days.

Most take a statistical approach, would also if your forecast was relied upon. But the window for a severe to historic outbreak is possible and in fact growing. Take the whole picture, it's not one or two runs here and there of the GFS anymore. 144-192 hour range now we can see the guidance moving to unload a significant Siberian air mass.

Even with a statistical approach the blend no longer really gives one an out for warmer outcome.

https://i.imgur.com/Md5hXWG.png

If I'm reading this image correctly, is that the NBM?

[Ntxw]

I’m seeing a lot of chatter and a vibe I’m getting from the past couple days is that it seems like a lot of people are expecting it to get colder but nothing close to an Artic outbreak. Seems like most people are just expecting it to be a few degrees colder than your norms. I’ve yet to see any on air met mention anything about Artic air coming. I expect this could change in a few days.

Most take a statistical approach, would also if your forecast was relied upon. But the window for a severe to historic outbreak is possible and in fact growing. Take the whole picture, it's not one or two runs here and there of the GFS anymore. 144-192 hour range now we can see the guidance moving to unload a significant Siberian air mass.

Even with a statistical approach the blend no longer really gives one an out for warmer outcome.

https://i.imgur.com/Md5hXWG.png

If I'm reading this image correctly, is that the NBM?

CIPS analogs.

[Iceresistance]

1067 mb on the 12z GFS in the Arctic Ocean, caving into the 0z Euro!


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_29.png

[Ntxw]

1067 mb on the 12z GFS in the Arctic Ocean, caving into the 0z Euro!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_29.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_29.png

We're looking at 4-5 SD below normal up there in the Arctic on these models. It is wild.

[Iceresistance]

1067 mb on the 12z GFS in the Arctic Ocean, caving into the 0z Euro!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_29.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_29.png

We're looking at 4-5 SD below normal up there in the Arctic on these models. It is wild.

This is eerily similar to February 2021, a powerful 1060+mb high in the Arctic Ocean before the Arctic Invasion comes in.

[Cpv17]

1067 mb on the 12z GFS in the Arctic Ocean, caving into the 0z Euro!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_29.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_29.png

That’s some good agreement right there for sure!

[Ntxw]

1067 mb on the 12z GFS in the Arctic Ocean, caving into the 0z Euro!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_29.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_29.png

We're looking at 4-5 SD below normal up there in the Arctic on these models. It is wild.

This is eerily similar to February 2021, a powerful 1060+mb high in the Arctic Ocean before the Arctic Invasion comes in.

[DallasAg]

2 Hours ago

https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1601933867518431233

IIRC Christmas Day 2000 had a really nasty ice storm for most of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and North Texas down to about the 380 corridor. Recall seeing a lot of trees lost in Texarkana and Sherman areas. DFW area teetered around 32F with heavy rain most of the day. The week between Christmas and New Years had periodic shots of winter precip for NTX followed by a New Year's Eve snow for most of NTX through the I-20 corridor in Louisiana. I got dumped on that night at the Independence Bowl in Shreveport - fun times (minus the outcome of the game).

[Ntxw]

If we weren't talking about some crazy outcomes, any one of these initial early cold shots would be December worthy on their own to what you would typically expect. The bar is low for December the past decade.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has a nasty Ice Storm for Eastern Texas, Southern Arkansas, Northern Louisiana, and Central Mississippi on the 21st-22nd.

After that, here comes the Arctic Cannon!

[Iceresistance]

1077 mb on the 12z CMC!? That is beyond insane!


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_40.png

[Ntxw]

12z GFS has a nasty Ice Storm for Eastern Texas, Southern Arkansas, Northern Louisiana, and Central Mississippi on the 21st-22nd.

After that, here comes the Arctic Cannon!

GFS gets chilly, then cold, then really cold. Icebox US.

The question isn't if it's going to get very cold, the question is how low can it go and who gets the worst of it.

[Cpv17]

1077 mb on the 12z CMC!? That is beyond insane!

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_40.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_40.png

That would be the motherload of all motherloads lol but in all seriousness, I like where that high is positioned. Western/NW Canada. Perfect spot!

[txtwister78]

12z GFS has a nasty Ice Storm for Eastern Texas, Southern Arkansas, Northern Louisiana, and Central Mississippi on the 21st-22nd.

After that, here comes the Arctic Cannon!

GFS gets chilly, then cold, then really cold. Icebox US.

The question isn't if it's going to get very cold, the question is how low can it go and who gets the worst of it.

Although colder with the weekend shot, the Canadian seems to be falling in line with that same approach as well. Surges of cold with presumably the final being the one that drops the hammer.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS has a nasty Ice Storm for Eastern Texas, Southern Arkansas, Northern Louisiana, and Central Mississippi on the 21st-22nd.

After that, here comes the Arctic Cannon!

GFS gets chilly, then cold, then really cold. Icebox US.

The question isn't if it's going to get very cold, the question is how low can it go and who gets the worst of it.

Although colder with the weekend shot, the Canadian seems to be falling in line with that same approach as well. Surges of cold with presumably the final being the one that drops the hammer.

The models are playing out eerily similar to feb 2021 where we kept thinking the early cold shots were the one but they were spokes before the big one. The earlier ones were the cause for the infamous Fort Worth car crash in black ice.

Watch the 850mb 0C line. Dashing hopes of a warm Christmas beginning in a few days.

[Iceresistance]

GFS gets chilly, then cold, then really cold. Icebox US.

The question isn't if it's going to get very cold, the question is how low can it go and who gets the worst of it.

Although colder with the weekend shot, the Canadian seems to be falling in line with that same approach as well. Surges of cold with presumably the final being the one that drops the hammer.

The models are playing out eerily similar to feb 2021 where we kept thinking the early cold shots were the one but they were spokes before the big one. The earlier ones were the cause for the infamous Fort Worth car crash in black ice.

Watch the 850mb 0C line. Dashing hopes of a warm Christmas beginning in a few days.

https://i.imgur.com/KXPDD0i.gif

Yep, Coldest December since 2013 for that run!

[Ntxw]

This is GEFS ensembles mean mslp. One must also consider the Arctic is largely sea level compared to the landmasses where the 1065s+ are over much higher terrain. So it's equivalency is great. Is why the records are met at lower pressures.

[txwxwatcher]

I notice major differences in the 500mb flow at 240 hrs. Euro drives the Arctic air east across southern Canada. GFS has an upper low much farther south, so it's colder for TX. Meanwhile, the source region remains relatively warm. Note that JB only cares about cold in Pennsylvania when he says "extreme cold coming". He's talking about the NE U.S. Historically, Christmas week has potential for very cold air coming south, followed by the January thaw. I think my wall may well hold, keeping Houston in the 70s to 80 for Christmas.

Don't get too excited until there is actually some cold air up north. By then, maybe there will be some sort of model agreement in the pattern. Maybe by next weekend.

Are you just hoping for 70s to 80 for Christmas in Houston, or are you actually suggesting that is what is likely?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I notice major differences in the 500mb flow at 240 hrs. Euro drives the Arctic air east across southern Canada. GFS has an upper low much farther south, so it's colder for TX. Meanwhile, the source region remains relatively warm. Note that JB only cares about cold in Pennsylvania when he says "extreme cold coming". He's talking about the NE U.S. Historically, Christmas week has potential for very cold air coming south, followed by the January thaw. I think my wall may well hold, keeping Houston in the 70s to 80 for Christmas.

Don't get too excited until there is actually some cold air up north. By then, maybe there will be some sort of model agreement in the pattern. Maybe by next weekend.

Are you just hoping for 70s to 80 for Christmas in Houston, or are you actually suggesting that is what is likely?

He’s just trolling the board at this point. It’s why no one responded.

I get a chuckle out of it.

[Iceresistance]

I notice major differences in the 500mb flow at 240 hrs. Euro drives the Arctic air east across southern Canada. GFS has an upper low much farther south, so it's colder for TX. Meanwhile, the source region remains relatively warm. Note that JB only cares about cold in Pennsylvania when he says "extreme cold coming". He's talking about the NE U.S. Historically, Christmas week has potential for very cold air coming south, followed by the January thaw. I think my wall may well hold, keeping Houston in the 70s to 80 for Christmas.

Don't get too excited until there is actually some cold air up north. By then, maybe there will be some sort of model agreement in the pattern. Maybe by next weekend.

Are you just hoping for 70s to 80 for Christmas in Houston, or are you actually suggesting that is what is likely?

He’s just trolling the board at this point. It’s why no one responded.

I get a chuckle out of it.

He is just hoping that the temperatures are going to be in the 70s and 80s.