Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Cpv17]

06z GEFS is still cold for Christmas

It’s brutally cold for Louisiana.

[txwxwatcher]

GFS really dumping the cold right before Christmas again... It has highs in the teens here on the 23rd with single digit highs in Kansas

End of the CMC showing it too

I would expect the operationals to trend even colder. Don’t think they realize the true potential of this yet.

We had single digit highs here in 1983 1989 and 2021 so that's sort of my baseline I'm watching if we really are gonna reach the full potential

The end of the CMC looks like a blue norther almost

https://i.ibb.co/cr0DyZp/gem-T2m-scus-41-1.png

I definitely do not like that map showing temps in the 70s at midnight on the 22nd in SE Texas.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I would expect the operationals to trend even colder. Don’t think they realize the true potential of this yet.

We had single digit highs here in 1983 1989 and 2021 so that's sort of my baseline I'm watching if we really are gonna reach the full potential

The end of the CMC looks like a blue norther almost

https://i.ibb.co/cr0DyZp/gem-T2m-scus-41-1.png

I definitely do not like that map showing temps in the 70s at midnight on the 22nd in SE Texas.

Well I’m going to sound like a broken record here, but stop watching control runs this far out.

The ensembles have it in the 20s-30s then. You may toss the 6z GFS, simply due to its 500mb pattern.

[Cpv17]

I would expect the operationals to trend even colder. Don’t think they realize the true potential of this yet.

We had single digit highs here in 1983 1989 and 2021 so that's sort of my baseline I'm watching if we really are gonna reach the full potential

The end of the CMC looks like a blue norther almost

https://i.ibb.co/cr0DyZp/gem-T2m-scus-41-1.png

I definitely do not like that map showing temps in the 70s at midnight on the 22nd in SE Texas.

The models use Zulu time. In the central time zone where we are 0z equates to a 6 hour difference. So 0z would be 6 pm.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Stupid SW Ridge wasted the Christmas Cold Shot on the 6z GFS!

No worries Ice, the ensemble looks good. Just hope the PNA doesn’t go too positive.

It’s not forecasted to move much off neutral.

[cycloneye]

White Christmas.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1602287007908012032

[Cpv17]

Stupid SW Ridge wasted the Christmas Cold Shot on the 6z GFS!

No worries Ice, the ensemble looks good. Just hope the PNA doesn’t go too positive.

It’s not forecasted to move much off neutral.

That’s great then! I’ve noticed that often times (esp in the longer range) that the models (esp the GFS) have an east biased with the cold and adjust back west as it nears.

[wxman57]

No trolling here. Neither the GFS nor the ECMWF 500mb flow is "right" for a major cold outbreak at day 10. Both dropped the big high in NW Canada overnight. All air is from the Pacific, not the Arctic. 6Z GFS has temps near 80 in Houston on Christmas. I'm not forecasting that, just making the observation. The pattern just doesn't look right (yet) for any major cold down here. Ensembles indicate a light freeze possible from Houston to south LA around the 24th-25th. Nothing out of the ordinary. No snow.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

No trolling here. Neither the GFS nor the ECMWF 500mb flow is "right" for a major cold outbreak at day 10. Both dropped the big high in NW Canada overnight. All air is from the Pacific, not the Arctic. 6Z GFS has temps near 80 in Houston on Christmas. I'm not forecasting that, just making the observation. The pattern just doesn't look right (yet) for any major cold down here. Ensembles indicate a light freeze possible from Houston to south LA around the 24th-25th. Nothing out of the ordinary. No snow.

Well since you’re the only one saying this in the weatherverse, educate me on why the 500 flow isn’t right over the last several days. I’ve asked this a couple times now.


Because, I follow a lot of pro Mets, and several who represent private industry (locally and statewide). They aren’t beating your tune.

I’m genuinely curious because there are some stud long range forecasters on here too, who disagree.

[wxman57]

No trolling here. Neither the GFS nor the ECMWF 500mb flow is "right" for a major cold outbreak at day 10. Both dropped the big high in NW Canada overnight. All air is from the Pacific, not the Arctic. 6Z GFS has temps near 80 in Houston on Christmas. I'm not forecasting that, just making the observation. The pattern just doesn't look right (yet) for any major cold down here. Ensembles indicate a light freeze possible from Houston to south LA around the 24th-25th. Nothing out of the ordinary. No snow.

Well since you’re the only one saying this in the weatherverse, educate me on why the 500 flow isn’t right over the last several days. I’ve asked this a couple times now.
Because, I follow a lot of pro Mets, and several who represent private industry (locally and statewide). They aren’t beating your tune.

I’m genuinely curious because there are some stud long range forecasters on here too, who disagree.

Day 10 flow at 500mb in the 00Z Euro (blue line). Flow comes off the Gulf of Alaska into Alaska then south through British Columbia and into the northern U.S. For extreme cold, we'd want to see something like the red arrow - Cross-Polar flow, to bring that very cold Siberian air into northern Canada.

[harp]

White Christmas.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1602287007908012032

I’ll take it!!!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

No trolling here. Neither the GFS nor the ECMWF 500mb flow is "right" for a major cold outbreak at day 10. Both dropped the big high in NW Canada overnight. All air is from the Pacific, not the Arctic. 6Z GFS has temps near 80 in Houston on Christmas. I'm not forecasting that, just making the observation. The pattern just doesn't look right (yet) for any major cold down here. Ensembles indicate a light freeze possible from Houston to south LA around the 24th-25th. Nothing out of the ordinary. No snow.

Well since you’re the only one saying this in the weatherverse, educate me on why the 500 flow isn’t right over the last several days. I’ve asked this a couple times now.
Because, I follow a lot of pro Mets, and several who represent private industry (locally and statewide). They aren’t beating your tune.

I’m genuinely curious because there are some stud long range forecasters on here too, who disagree.

Day 10 flow at 500mb in the 00Z Euro (blue line). Flow comes off the Gulf of Alaska into Alaska then south through British Columbia and into the northern U.S. For extreme cold, we'd want to see something like the red arrow - Cross-Polar flow, to bring that very cold Siberian air into northern Canada.

http://wxman57.com/images/flow.jpg

Thank you for drawing that out. On the ensembles I am seeing cross polar flow. Shouldn’t that have more weight than one control run?



The flow you posted there from the ECM would still deliver a healthy below normal temp here though, just nothing extreme.

[Cpv17]

Well since you’re the only one saying this in the weatherverse, educate me on why the 500 flow isn’t right over the last several days. I’ve asked this a couple times now.
Because, I follow a lot of pro Mets, and several who represent private industry (locally and statewide). They aren’t beating your tune.

I’m genuinely curious because there are some stud long range forecasters on here too, who disagree.

Day 10 flow at 500mb in the 00Z Euro (blue line). Flow comes off the Gulf of Alaska into Alaska then south through British Columbia and into the northern U.S. For extreme cold, we'd want to see something like the red arrow - Cross-Polar flow, to bring that very cold Siberian air into northern Canada.

http://wxman57.com/images/flow.jpg

Thank you for drawing that out. On the ensembles I am seeing cross polar flow. Shouldn’t that have more weight than one control run?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2022121200/eps_z500a_namer_41.png

The flow you posted there from the ECM would still deliver a healthy below normal temp here though, just nothing extreme.

I’m thinking there needs to be more ridging over NW Canada and Alaska on this. Ridging might be too far north. I see some pacific flow here.

Or maybe I’m not reading this correctly.

[wxman57]

Well since you’re the only one saying this in the weatherverse, educate me on why the 500 flow isn’t right over the last several days. I’ve asked this a couple times now.
Because, I follow a lot of pro Mets, and several who represent private industry (locally and statewide). They aren’t beating your tune.

I’m genuinely curious because there are some stud long range forecasters on here too, who disagree.

Day 10 flow at 500mb in the 00Z Euro (blue line). Flow comes off the Gulf of Alaska into Alaska then south through British Columbia and into the northern U.S. For extreme cold, we'd want to see something like the red arrow - Cross-Polar flow, to bring that very cold Siberian air into northern Canada.

http://wxman57.com/images/flow.jpg

Thank you for drawing that out. On the ensembles I am seeing cross polar flow. Shouldn’t that have more weight than one control run?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2022121200/eps_z500a_namer_41.png

The flow you posted there from the ECM would still deliver a healthy below normal temp here though, just nothing extreme.

You need to use the Northern Hemisphere view that shows where the air is coming from. It's not moving across the Pole. It's coming from the Bering Sea.

[harp]

Larry Cosgrove saying this morning to not take this Arctic outbreak lightly….

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1602278499041017856




 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1602278503101059072

[Iceresistance]

1068 mb HP in the Arctic Ocean on the 0z ICON

[snowballzzz]

Larry Cosgrove saying this morning to not take this Arctic outbreak lightly….

From Larry's Facebook this morning:

"Building the perfect (Arctic) vortex....
Evidence for a widespread Arctic air mass intrusion appeared late last week. And I was shocked to see the event gain support from all of the major numerical model guidance during the weekend. As a word of warning, do not take this bitter cold regime lightly. Not only is there the threat of power grid taxation and hypothermia risks. For the next three to four weeks.
That vast storm complex along the West Coast will start the ball rolling this week. Focusing more on its southern branch, which will result in secondary cyclogenesis over Georgia and the Carolinas later this week, heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will advance form Texas and Oklahoma into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, then into the Southeast. Then the new low pressure will move along the Interstate 95 corridor with the excessive rainfall eventually reaching the Maritime Provinces. Lake-related and lake-effect snows will be common across an area from Wisconsin into western New York, as well as mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia as the primary low at 500MB stalls and deepens near the Soo Locks (MI/ON).
When you see a large, broad gyre aloft, ridging will increase around its northern flanks. In this case the Davis Strait and Alaska. Cold air across the Canadian and northern USA snowpack will increase in coverage and spread south and east. Because there will be additional shortwaves rotating around the vortex, new Arctic intrusions may combine with disturbances moving out of the subtropical and polar sectors of the Pacific Basin. It is with these systems that ice and snow, accompanied by much below normal temperatures, may appear through Texas, Dixie and the Eastern Seaboard just before Christmas and through the New Year's weekend.
This is not a dull pattern, and you would be well advised to follow developments in regard to cold and the precipitation events.
CIMSS 1100z Water Vapor Mosaic Of The Pacific Basin. Note the three storms in the sequence, with the two follow-ups having a deep subtropical energy and moisture connection associated with pulsations out of the Madden-Julian Oscillation."

[wxman57]

Sorry, I remain unimpressed. We'll see what happens next week.

[Iceresistance]

KFOR has Highs in the Mid 20s next weekend, with no snow.