Texas Winter 2022-2023

[cheezyWXguy]

18z GFS ridge off the west coast is oriented different so no big storm for TX/LA this run, compared to the 12z.

The GFS is still likely in the dust after December 19th for storm systems and ridges.

Lol the 500mb pattern this run is comedically different from the last at that range. Until we get even 2 runs in a row that look similar, this is all gravy. Right now the main takeaway is that, within reasonable range, we can see the main players getting set up in the north

[Ntxw]

18z GFS ridge off the west coast is oriented different so no big storm for TX/LA this run, compared to the 12z.

The GFS is still likely in the dust after December 19th for storm systems and ridges.

It's still a very cold run. All things considered we're looking at another 100+ hours below freezing type outbreak for NTX, translated elsewhere as well.

[HockeyTx82]

When is Lucy going to show up?

[Iceresistance]

When is Lucy going to show up?

She is trying in the models!

[Cpv17]

With the SOI going negative and the CPC having an above normal shot at precip then I would say it’s likely we would have a system or coastal low developing during this cold timeframe.

[Ntxw]

With the SOI going negative and the CPC having an above normal shot at precip then I would say it’s likely we would have a system or coastal low developing during this cold timeframe.

Very, very long range ensembles has Aleutian trough pattern. That's El Nino Pacific look, might need to discuss SSW since that is a strong precursor with the Aleutian low hitting the weakened TPV even more. Will revisit another arctic dump late January.

[Iceresistance]

The 18z GFS decides to pull a Christmas Miracle in SE Texas!

[sphelps8681]

The 18z GFS decides to pull a Christmas Miracle in SE Texas!

We don't want it. We are so unprepared for anything like this. You can have it.

[South Texas Storms]

What everyone should be taking away from the latest model guidance is that it will be getting much colder during the second half of December. How cold, we don't know yet. We also don't know if we will see any frozen precipitation. But the chance of seeing snow and ice certainly looks higher than normal due to the expected cold temperatures in place.

[Cpv17]

The 18z GFS decides to pull a Christmas Miracle in SE Texas!

In all likelihood, we’re probably looking at more than just one winter threat during this timeframe.

[txwxwatcher]

ABC 13 weather team in Houston now mentioning Siberian air and giving an early heads up about “severe cold” by Christmas weekend…

“An arctic cold front?! Will this be a repeat of the February 2021 winter storm? And could we have a white Christmas?

It's too early to know exactly how we will be impacted by next week's arctic cold front, but a hard freeze and wintry precipitation are certainly possible. Bitter cold air from Siberia is expected to come across the arctic circle into Canada and the United States early next week. There is a moderately strong signal that this cold air will plunge into Texas, but we still don't know how cold it will get and whether or not any moisture will be available to generate wintry precip. We just want to give you an early heads up that things could turn severely cold by Christmas weekend with the arctic chill arriving in Houston as early as Thursday, December 22nd.”

https://abc13.com/houston-weather-forec ... res/39346/

[Sambucol]

The 18z GFS decides to pull a Christmas Miracle in SE Texas!

Yes!!! We are better prepared after we went through the event in Feb 2021.

[txwxwatcher]

The 18z GFS decides to pull a Christmas Miracle in SE Texas!

We don't want it. We are so unprepared for anything like this. You can have it.

I’ll take it.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[UTSARoadrunner4]

The 18z GFS decides to pull a Christmas Miracle in SE Texas!

We don't want it. We are so unprepared for anything like this. You can have it.

Nah, we’re good. We can handle this!!

[somethingfunny]

I'm visiting Singapore in February. I'll be flying out of DFW, so I ask for some quiet weather until I leave. If it gets as cold as I think it will, the trip will be much needed.

February in Dallas? Good luck, that's like booking a Caribbean cruise in October!

[txtwister78]

Pretty impressive 5 day run of the 18z GEFS (ensemble) for next week if you like cold.

[Sambucol]

The 18z GFS decides to pull a Christmas Miracle in SE Texas!

We don't want it. We are so unprepared for anything like this. You can have it.

I’ll take it.

I will, too!!

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[TeamPlayersBlue]

18z did exactly what some of you said on here, and the same thing it did in '21. It pushed eastward through the block, which is unlikely to happen. I remember even 4 days out in '21, the GFS was still trying to push the PV east, and it was completely wrong. No flustered yet.

Those HP's are incredible. I'm saving some of these runs.

[Cpv17]

18z did exactly what some of you said on here, and the same thing it did in '21. It pushed eastward through the block, which is unlikely to happen. I remember even 4 days out in '21, the GFS was still trying to push the PV east, and it was completely wrong. No flustered yet.

Those HP's are incredible. I'm saving some of these runs.

Did you see the CPC forecast from today? Looks like they’re trying to push the coldest anomalies somewhat east of us too. I don’t necessarily buy it though.

[Tireman4]

Before the cold action starts, there is the chance for stormy weather with the first front coming