Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

Someone mentioned something earlier (I thought it was thundersleetdreams) about -70’s popping up in our source region but I can’t seem to find anything quite that cold on the models. I saw a -62 in NW Canada on the 18z GFS but I’d like to know where they were getting the -70 from.

12z Euro had a -56.3C temp in Yukon. Not sure how much of that is elevation but that's the max min late in its run. Which equates to -69F.

Edit: 18z GFS had a -58.1C which is -72F.

Hmmm.. if we’re talking about our source region being in the -60 to -70’s range then that would only give me even more confidence that we could be looking at something really serious. That’s gonna be one of my focuses over the next few days is seeing just how cold and loaded up it gets up there.

Sorry I have to correct and removed the post, chose the wrong options on wxmodels. -49C was the lowest I could find on 12z Euro, 18z GFS -72F stands though.

More importantly it's the expanse of -30s+ that really matter. The larger the area the better. It's all about how it is driven and where.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1602408723166728199

[Cpv17]

I kinda feel as if models will lose the cold as we enter the medium range like they often do and then slowly bring it back as the event nears but never bring it back to what it showed at the beginning stages where we’re at now. This is just usually how it goes I’ve noticed.

[Ntxw]

I kinda feel as if models will lose the cold as we enter the medium range like they often do and then slowly bring it back as the event nears but never bring it back to what it showed at the beginning stages where we’re at now. This is just usually how it goes I’ve noticed.

I have a gut feeling this one is different. I think what could happen is they send it to the wrong places for some runs (Eastern Canada for instance) but that would be a hard sell due to extreme blocking. You don't just have a teleconnections alignment but aligning at near historical levels. The cold maps early week were few here and there on the GFS. Now it's much more frequent on all the models.

[Cpv17]

I kinda feel as if models will lose the cold as we enter the medium range like they often do and then slowly bring it back as the event nears but never bring it back to what it showed at the beginning stages where we’re at now. This is just usually how it goes I’ve noticed.

I have a gut feeling this one is different. I think what could happen is they send it to the wrong places for some runs (Eastern Canada for instance) but that would be a hard sell due to extreme blocking. You don't just have a teleconnections alignment but aligning at near historical levels. The cold maps early weeks were few here and there on the GFS. Now it's much more frequent on all the models.

Yeah I saw your post earlier about how you think the signal will only grow even stronger the closer we get.

[Ntxw]

I kinda feel as if models will lose the cold as we enter the medium range like they often do and then slowly bring it back as the event nears but never bring it back to what it showed at the beginning stages where we’re at now. This is just usually how it goes I’ve noticed.

I have a gut feeling this one is different. I think what could happen is they send it to the wrong places for some runs (Eastern Canada for instance) but that would be a hard sell due to extreme blocking. You don't just have a teleconnections alignment but aligning at near historical levels. The cold maps early weeks were few here and there on the GFS. Now it's much more frequent on all the models.

Yeah I saw your post earlier about how you think the signal will only grow even stronger the closer we get.

Never in my wildest dreams would I picture all the globals and ENS feature 1065mb highs in the Arctic and Canada -> contiguous 48. These are things you see in 384hr GFS once a few years.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I kinda feel as if models will lose the cold as we enter the medium range like they often do and then slowly bring it back as the event nears but never bring it back to what it showed at the beginning stages where we’re at now. This is just usually how it goes I’ve noticed.

I have a gut feeling this one is different. I think what could happen is they send it to the wrong places for some runs (Eastern Canada for instance) but that would be a hard sell due to extreme blocking. You don't just have a teleconnections alignment but aligning at near historical levels. The cold maps early week were few here and there on the GFS. Now it's much more frequent on all the models.

Yeah, dense cold doesn’t stray.

[Ntxw]

Here is a surface map saved from 2021 on Feb 8 before the big plunge a few days after.

[orangeblood]

I kinda feel as if models will lose the cold as we enter the medium range like they often do and then slowly bring it back as the event nears but never bring it back to what it showed at the beginning stages where we’re at now. This is just usually how it goes I’ve noticed.

I have a gut feeling this one is different. I think what could happen is they send it to the wrong places for some runs (Eastern Canada for instance) but that would be a hard sell due to extreme blocking. You don't just have a teleconnections alignment but aligning at near historical levels.

Yep, this one has a much different feel to it

With setups like this, I believe a good rule of thumb we’ve learned on here over the years is to stick with the Ensemble mean until around 5-6 days out…at that point switch to the Operationals but even then 9 of 10 times it will be underestimating the magnitude and southern extent of the Arctic Air

[Texas Snow]

First I’ve seen NWSFWD mention much about the upcoming changes, this for this coming weekend. Always love seeing what is going through their minds.

Forecast uncertainty increases this weekend into early next week
with considerable spread in both deterministic and ensemble
guidance regarding a surface low progged to deepen across the Gulf
of Mexico in advance of an approaching southern stream shortwave.
As isentropic ascent becomes established overtop the cool near-
surface airmass, low precipitation chances return to the region.
Confidence in the expected precipitation type(s) remains low,
however, with ensemble members ranging from colder temperatures
with a wintry mix of precipitation possible to warmer temperature
profiles and all liquid precipitation. Have kept temperatures
close to the NBM with this update with rain chances confined to
locations/times where near-to-above freezing temperatures are
likely. The potential for frozen precipitation will heavily depend
on the timing and location of synoptic scale features, namely the
coastal low.

[rwfromkansas]

If it was 5 days ago, I could see losing it. But, with such strong ensemble support etc., I just can’t see it. But, a lot can change with smaller details.

[jasons2k]

Storms going up fast in the panhandle: https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1602503986099400704

[bubba hotep]

Storms going up fast in the panhandle: https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1602503986099400704

Looks like that was mostly missed by the 18z hi-res and the 00z runs are playing catchup.

[wxman57]

I notice the 18Z GFS is much less cold for TX. Only a light freeze in SE TX and south LA vs. single digits to below zero. Much more believable. Seasonal cold. I would suggest that we wait until any cold air actually shows up in Canada before getting excited about winter wx. Maybe 3-4 days out. Before talking about the very dense cold air going straight south, there has to BE some very cold air in the source region. It's not there now.

I'm still not convinced we'll see anything but seasonal weather down here in TX. It's too far out to be confident. Worst case, my private jet is fueled and the pilot has a flight plan to Sydney.

[Brent]

The apps keep getting colder here... I'm down to 23/12 next Thursday Friday... Yesterday it was around freezing what will it be by then

[Ntxw]

0z ICON has by this Sunday 1068mb high in NW Canada (this is the push of the 1st cold wave not the big one). Around this time next week an Arctic front is pushing through Oklahoma and TX.

[txwxwatcher]

I notice the 18Z GFS is much less cold for TX. Only a light freeze in SE TX and south LA vs. single digits to below zero. Much more believable. Seasonal cold. I would suggest that we wait until any cold air actually shows up in Canada before getting excited about winter wx. Maybe 3-4 days out. Before talking about the very dense cold air going straight south, there has to BE some very cold air in the source region. It's not there now.

I'm still not convinced we'll see anything but seasonal weather down here in TX. It's too far out to be confident. Worst case, my private jet is fueled and the pilot has a flight plan to Sydney.

While we’re on the subject of the 18z GFS, what did you make of this?

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[Brent]

GFS is a snowstorm on Monday here again are we getting consistency? This is the second run in a row

8 inches on the clown map

[Ntxw]

0z GFS somewhat looks more like the 12z euro than 18z GFS. Might be a storm with cold air for TX.

[Brent]

The GFS is a weenie run up here... There's also a near blizzard 2 days before Christmas and temperatures are below zero Christmas morning