Texas Winter 2022-2023

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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1281 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Dec 13, 2022 5:32 pm

Are you that crazy 18z GFS!? :eek: :cold: :froze:

Image
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_34.png

Image
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1282 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Dec 13, 2022 5:33 pm



Oh my lord…
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1283 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Dec 13, 2022 5:36 pm



I also want to mention that the Lowest Temperatures I can find in the CONUS are only around -45°F, that is a horrible underestimation under a 1073 mb HP!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1284 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Dec 13, 2022 5:42 pm

Iceresistance wrote:


I also want to mention that the Lowest Temperatures I can find in the CONUS are only around -45°F, that is a horrible underestimation under a 1073 mb HP!


I think in Montana or Wyoming it got into the -70’s F before.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1285 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Dec 13, 2022 5:44 pm

So in those two pictures from above, the 18z GFS moves the low from Wichita Falls to Little Rock in 6 hours? Little too progressive there GFS, dontcha think?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1286 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Tue Dec 13, 2022 5:48 pm

Cpv17 wrote:So in those two pictures from above, the 18z GFS moves the low from Wichita Falls to Little Rock in 6 hours? Little too progressive there GFS, dontcha think?



Block won't allow it. I read an east coast board and they are getting more and more sullen with the pattern trends and are saying similar things to us in regards to where this cold is going first....
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I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1287 Postby AubreyStorm » Tue Dec 13, 2022 5:49 pm



I think I will go to PR, last time (2020) without power every 30 minutes.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1288 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Tue Dec 13, 2022 5:51 pm

My wife calls me crazy, but I gravitate to extreme weather events.... Blizzards and Hurricanes mainly.

My favorite are violent Thunder Sleet Storms. I love lightning bolts and cracking of thunder in 2 inch a hour sleet cells.

Hoping to not have to go far for this upcoming system.
Last edited by ThunderSleetDreams on Tue Dec 13, 2022 5:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1289 Postby AubreyStorm » Tue Dec 13, 2022 5:52 pm



What does mean? :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1290 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:01 pm



The stronger the high pressure usually means the colder it will be.

1073 MB would be the strongest in the lower 48’s history. The current record is 1064 MB in 1983.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1291 Postby orangeblood » Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:11 pm

The last 50 years of Texas Severe Arctic Outbreak Heavy Hitters 1983 1989 2021 and there respective 500 mb Anomalies

Image

Now, the Euro ENS 500 mb Mean for next Thursday

Image

Not sure there is much else that needs to be said besides START PREPARING NOW!
Last edited by orangeblood on Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1292 Postby txtwister78 » Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:13 pm

orangeblood wrote:The last 50 years of Texas Severe Arctic Outbreak Heavy Hitters 1983 1989 2021 and there respective 500 mb Anomalies

https://psl.noaa.gov/tmp/narr/47.4.26.150.346.16.4.46.png

Now, the Euro ENS 500 mb Mean for next Thursday

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/namer/z500_anom/1670932800/1671688800-luFypyUEYi0.png

Not sure there is much else that needs to be said besides START PREPARING NOW!


Yup Bastardi mentioned this earlier.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1293 Postby Edwards Limestone » Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:20 pm

orangeblood wrote:The last 50 years of Texas Severe Arctic Outbreak Heavy Hitters 1983 1989 2021 and there respective 500 mb Anomalies

https://psl.noaa.gov/tmp/narr/47.4.26.150.346.16.13.19.png

Now, the Euro ENS 500 mb Mean for next Thursday

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/namer/z500_anom/1670932800/1671688800-luFypyUEYi0.png

Not sure there is much else that needs to be said besides START PREPARING NOW!


Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1294 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:23 pm

DO NOT like that ridging extending that far south off the Pacific! ^^^
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1295 Postby Texas Snow » Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:25 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:The cold on the Euro is far enough west based that it would help with precip chances I would think as orangeblood mentioned.

Really interesting stuff. I am kind of kicking myself for not getting a generator after 2021. But, I felt surely I wouldn't need it again for a long time...



You have time. The general public doesn't know much about this potential but when they do there will be a run on them. We only have one because my wife had a recurring dream a few years back that we needed one and its all she wanted for Mother's Day, so she got it. It has now helped others through 3 tornadoes, us on some random offsite projects, and of course four critical days in 2021. So worth it.


Did you get a switch so it could truly power the house?


Sadly No. This generator can’t power the entire house with our 5 Ton A/C on anyway. We still were going to get it wired to run everything in the house but the central A/C however (we bought a window unit for an emergency are used to cool a bedroom so we could still through a summer outage if needed).

So we were about to have the electrician come out but it was like $1000 for the switch and panel rewire and that same week our AC unit gave up the ghost and we had to buy a new one. As such we decided running some extension cords through the house was a better solution then dropping $1,000 for once a year convenience.

That said, in our next house, we are 100% having a whole home generator.
Last edited by Texas Snow on Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1296 Postby orangeblood » Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:26 pm

Latest GEFS Mean is faster and further east...still brutally cold but this would probably create a much drier outcome

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1297 Postby harp » Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:27 pm

Cpv17 wrote:DO NOT like that ridging extending that far south off the Pacific! ^^^

Why?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1298 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:28 pm

harp wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:DO NOT like that ridging extending that far south off the Pacific! ^^^

Why?


Cuts off the storm track. Drier solution.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1299 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:33 pm

Can someone please link me the GFS output that shows the weather expected in your area in, I think, 3 hour increments. I can’t remember what it is called but it is updated with each run and you put in your areas call letters to get your forecast. I swore I had it saved but every winter I have to ask for it again.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1300 Postby orangeblood » Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:35 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
harp wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:DO NOT like that ridging extending that far south off the Pacific! ^^^

Why?


Cuts off the storm track. Drier solution.


Correct, for major precip producers you do not want that Ridge hugging the West Coast...needs to be further offshore
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