Texas Winter 2022-2023

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ThunderSleetDreams
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1401 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:06 am

Itryatgolf wrote:It looks like most have dodged a bullet with the real cold air imo. Still cold but nothing like what could have been. When you got the -wpo/epo, cold will come. This is my two cents. We will probably have to wait until mid-end of January for our next realistic chance.


We are 8-9 days out… it’s going to be cold

No one knows how much yet. No one has dodged anything.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1402 Postby harp » Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:10 am

This run gives SE Louisiana snow the 26th. I’ll screenshot it. Lol!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1403 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:13 am

One of my favorite mets did a video this evening and essentially echoes my thought. https://twitter.com/AccuRayno/status/16 ... 86vof6npcw

In short the GFS is lost right now, this is a known bias. This cold will go south, not east. Seen it too many times with the models trying to push everything east too quickly.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1404 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:14 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Itryatgolf wrote:It looks like most have dodged a bullet with the real cold air imo. Still cold but nothing like what could have been. When you got the -wpo/epo, cold will come. This is my two cents. We will probably have to wait until mid-end of January for our next realistic chance.


We are 8-9 days out… it’s going to be cold

No one knows how much yet. No one has dodged anything.
It will be cooler and cooler starting Tomorrow, correct?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1405 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:15 am

starsfan65 wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Itryatgolf wrote:It looks like most have dodged a bullet with the real cold air imo. Still cold but nothing like what could have been. When you got the -wpo/epo, cold will come. This is my two cents. We will probably have to wait until mid-end of January for our next realistic chance.


We are 8-9 days out… it’s going to be cold

No one knows how much yet. No one has dodged anything.
It will be cooler and cooler starting Tomorrow, correct?


Yeah it's turning colder here already
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1406 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:15 am

starsfan65 wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Itryatgolf wrote:It looks like most have dodged a bullet with the real cold air imo. Still cold but nothing like what could have been. When you got the -wpo/epo, cold will come. This is my two cents. We will probably have to wait until mid-end of January for our next realistic chance.


We are 8-9 days out… it’s going to be cold

No one knows how much yet. No one has dodged anything.
It will be cooler and cooler starting Tomorrow, correct?


Yes. The timeframe everyone is referencing is the 22nd-25th.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1407 Postby Sambucol » Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:16 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:Not if the 0z GFS gives DFW the Christmas Miracle!


It doesn’t. It shows a few in Texas getting a little bit but let’s not kid ourselves on yet another model run over 10 days away.

The 0z GFS has trended the +PNA further west. A good start to hopefully a trend towards more natural PNA.

Did we have this kind of situation before in this range in February when the less-than-easily-predictable PNA on the models started to drive us crazy?


What does that mean for Texas with the GFS trending the +PNA further west?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1408 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:17 am

Sambucol wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:
It doesn’t. It shows a few in Texas getting a little bit but let’s not kid ourselves on yet another model run over 10 days away.

The 0z GFS has trended the +PNA further west. A good start to hopefully a trend towards more natural PNA.

Did we have this kind of situation before in this range in February when the less-than-easily-predictable PNA on the models started to drive us crazy?


What does that mean for Texas with the GFS trending the +PNA further west?

Less blockage of storm systems coming from the SW and the cold air reaches further south in Texas.
Last edited by Iceresistance on Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1409 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:17 am

Sambucol wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:
It doesn’t. It shows a few in Texas getting a little bit but let’s not kid ourselves on yet another model run over 10 days away.

The 0z GFS has trended the +PNA further west. A good start to hopefully a trend towards more natural PNA.

Did we have this kind of situation before in this range in February when the less-than-easily-predictable PNA on the models started to drive us crazy?


What does that mean for Texas with the GFS trending the +PNA further west?


Moving the PNA west brings the core of the cold down the middle of the county to Texas
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1410 Postby Sambucol » Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:22 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
Sambucol wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:The 0z GFS has trended the +PNA further west. A good start to hopefully a trend towards more natural PNA.

Did we have this kind of situation before in this range in February when the less-than-easily-predictable PNA on the models started to drive us crazy?


What does that mean for Texas with the GFS trending the +PNA further west?


Moving the PNA west brings the core of the cold down the middle of the county to Texas

Sounds great!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1411 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:25 am

Man, lots of pages today. It’s like whiplash following reactions. But, it’s a sickness. Constantly hitting refresh.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1412 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:26 am

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1602891874129297409


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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1413 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:27 am

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1602889694169235456


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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1414 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:52 am

Wow, what a wild morning… :eek:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1415 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Wed Dec 14, 2022 2:23 am

harp wrote:You guys are depressing me with this no precip talk…

Same. for me, unless it' snowing or sleeting, anything below 70 degrees is a waste. I'd just as soon stay in the warm weather we had last week than have frigid temps and no precip.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1416 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 14, 2022 2:26 am

Euro is much warmer... :spam: :spam:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1417 Postby JayDT » Wed Dec 14, 2022 2:36 am

Brent wrote:Euro is much warmer... :spam: :spam:


In that case lets just say tonight’s euro run didn’t happen.. :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1418 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Dec 14, 2022 2:43 am

More rain moving through. Just heard a little thunder.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1419 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Dec 14, 2022 2:44 am

Brent wrote:Euro is much warmer... :spam: :spam:

Poop run. :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023

#1420 Postby JayDT » Wed Dec 14, 2022 3:10 am

Well hopefully the ensembles look better..
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