Texas Winter 2022-2023

[ThunderSleetDreams]

https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_12/ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-mslp_anom-1671105600-1671688800-1671775200-40.gif.1c5c41ea89c252706ce6b6840eb99bcd.gif

Down the middle with a 1043 High into Texas

If If If...this verifies...this will hurt...LOL

Ensembles haven't been swaying with a solution like this, although this one is the strongest signal.

LOL at the East coast 996 mean. Those winter loving muchachos over there have some tight pants right now.

[Brent]

https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_12/ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-mslp_anom-1671105600-1671688800-1671775200-40.gif.1c5c41ea89c252706ce6b6840eb99bcd.gif

Down the middle with a 1043 High into Texas

Need to get that east coast storm over here although Tulsa has a chance of snow as the Arctic air floods in Wednesday night but I highly doubt that would be much

[BrokenGlass]

Down the middle with a 1043 High into Texas

Need to share this with @weatherpeens on Twitter.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[ThunderSleetDreams]

https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_12/ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-mslp_anom-1671105600-1671688800-1671775200-40.gif.1c5c41ea89c252706ce6b6840eb99bcd.gif

Down the middle with a 1043 High into Texas

Need to share this with @weatherpeens on Twitter.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

I don't do social media outside of LinkedIn. Run with it!

[Cerlin]

GFS is still definitely struggling with this cold airmass, especially now that the first wave is entering hi-res territory.

Here’s the 18z HRRR valid for Saturday at 12z.

And the 18z NAM 3km at the same time.


Compare that to the 12z GFS:


Obviously the 18z suite has newer data, so I expect the 18z GFS to overall trend colder, but usually the global models will start to panic and lose some of the cold between 4-8 days out. Other global models are closer to the NAM, so we’ll see how this progresses over the next week or so, but I’d expect that the global models are too warm on temperatures by a few degrees.

[Cpv17]

The CPC now has almost all of Texas under a high risk for well below normal temps. Last time that happened was in Feb 21. Yeah I’d say you folks in Dallas could be making a run towards that 5°F mark, possibly lower.

[Brent]

It's already cold here. That lovely wind

Next week is gonna be something else... But it's not gonna surprise me if the cold air just basically gradually gets worse after Monday

[Cpv17]

It's already cold here. That lovely wind

Next week is gonna be something else... But it's not gonna surprise me if the cold air just basically gradually gets worse after Monday

Yeah. Too bad it looks like the PNA decided to pick the wrong time to go positive. We could’ve been looking at an epic snowstorm over Oklahoma and Texas around Christmas but at least it won’t be in the sticky 70’s or 80’s for Christmas this year.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Well us in the south East need some snow. Haven’t gotten any real snow in a while. I’ll take it

[wxman57]

Just checked Houston climo. Normal for Christmas is 43-63. Normal in Jan 44-64, normal in Feb is 46-66. I guess there is a slight difference (warmer) for Jan/Feb. Still, 25F below normal for a high is only upper 30s.

For alter ego highs upper 30s is quite invigorating .

Dont worry, his alter ego will come back and completely flabbergast the newbies..LOL..It is like scene from the Weird and Weirder..LOL

I don't know what you're talking about.

[Sambucol]

https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_12/ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-mslp_anom-1671105600-1671688800-1671775200-40.gif.1c5c41ea89c252706ce6b6840eb99bcd.gif

Down the middle with a 1043 High into Texas

If this verifies, would this be a repeat of 2021?

[Iceresistance]

Heat Miser! Run away to Australia to save yourself!

[Ntxw]

Perhaps we are done trending flat and east. Now inside 7 days these little ticks matter, just a few hundred more miles to the four corners. Not far now from the Great Basin dig!

[Iceresistance]

Trough Orientation is changing in our favor on the 18z GFS!


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_us_fh144_trend.gif

[Iceresistance]

1063 mb in Montana on 18z GFS, holy moly

[PTrackerLA]

Y'all are gonna love the 18z GFS .

[harp]

Is that trough digging further west??

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Is that trough digging further west??

Mmmhmmmm

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS gives me a Blizzard Next Thursday, what?


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_28.png


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_wind_scus_29.png

[Ntxw]

18z GFS gives me a Blizzard Next Thursday, what?

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_28.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_28.png

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_wind_scus_29.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_wind_scus_29.png

Dig it a little more! Round the base of that trough/cold air!